Slate Details
DK/FD – Main slate (13 games) – starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
The only game with any serious concern is MIL@NYM, which has a solid storm rolling in right before game time. A modest delay should result in a full game but make sure to keep an eye on this one when making your lineups and leading up to the start of the slate.
Pitching
We start off today with probably the most obvious start of the day, which is the untouchable Blake Snell against the woeful Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh got off the schneid a bit with a nine run performance on Tuesday, but that was against an unexpected bullpen day. Prior to that, the Pirates 5-9 hitters had hit an unfathomable 0 for their last 95. If you haven’t been paying attention, Snell has been the best pitcher in baseball over his last three starts, allowing just 1 ER, 8 hits and 3 walks over 19 innings with a staggering 35 strikeouts. If we go back even further to his May 25th start, Snell has allowed just 2 ERs over his last 36 innings. Everyone is going to be playing him today, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t.
Mitch Keller starts opposite of Snell and makes for an interesting pivot. The Padres lineup was on fire there for a little bit, but they have cooled off a bit in the last 3 games. Keller has shown some resiliency over the last month in battling through some tough starts and looks like he is for real. A quality start for Mitch against a Padres lineup that really looked disinterested and lackadaisical at times on Tuesday is my prediction.
Kodai Senga has been very hit or miss for the Mets in his rookie season, but on Wednesday he faces a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that has missed a ton of late. Over the last two weeks, Milwaukee has the 4th-worst wRC+ in baseball at 72 with the 2nd-highest K% at 27.4%. If Senga’s ghost forkball is on point, it will be a long night for the Brew Crew. Senga can put up an ace-like outing, we’ve seen it before, and his price point suggests that he will.
Dane Dunning has turned into a bit of a saving grace for the Rangers in the midst of the Jacob deGrom injury and he is coming off back-to-back quality starts against the likes of the Blue Jays and Yankees. Facing the Tigers on Wednesday at home, I like Dunning as a bit of a low-risk, cash game play. He probably won’t be the highest scoring pitcher on the board, but he also probably won’t tank your whole lineup with a putrid performance.
If you had J.P. Sears as the highest PLV on the slate raise your hand. No, nobody? With several high-level starters on the slate I was certainly surprised myself, even though I have Sears on all three of my fantasy teams. Having watched a few of his starts this season, his decent stuff plays up from the left side because of his excellent command and ability to pitch off the high fastball. Where he runs into trouble is when his pitches leak out over the plate and get pounded for HRs, which has already happened 18 times this season. Luckily, he faces a Yankee lineup that has the 2nd-worst wRC+ over the last two weeks at 64 and has hit just nine HRs in that span. Sears probably should be one of the more highly owned pitchers tonight but I don’t think everyone is as privy to his ability as we are here at Pitcher List. Pair Sears with fellow lefty Snell and you should be looking good tonight.
Hitting
Pitching against the Rangers in Arlington has not been a successful endeavor for pitchers in 2023 and Joey Wentz is about to learn that the hard way on Wednesday. Wentz actually faced Texas earlier in the year back in Detroit and was able to escape with just 1 ER in 4.1 innings despite allowing 7 hits. He will not be that lucky today. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia is a hell of a first four to deal with. Follow it up with sneaky ROTY candidate Josh Jung and hard-hitting catcher Jonah Heim and you’re in trouble. But my play of the day in this game has to be Ezequiel Duran and his .319/.359/.541 slash line. How is nobody talking about this guy? Versatile in the field as well, Duran has a 187 wRC+ over the last two weeks and mashed his 10th HR of the season yesterday.
Zach Davies run of fooling hitters with below average stuff might be coming to an end. Over his last three starts, spanning 10.2 innings, Davies has allowed 18 ERs and his ERA has ballooned up to 7.82. On Wednesday he is facing a Tamp Bay lineup that is perfectly content to wait back and just take what Davies gives them. Then once they get on base, you know Tampa is going to be off to the Rayces on the base paths. Isaac Paredes has been the hottest hitter in their lineup and Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena have also been swinging the bat well. Wander Franco, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez are great options in the middle of the lineup and guys like Luke Fraley and Jose Siri are liable to go yard at any moment.
Other bats worth mentioning:
- The Dodgers lineup has struggled of late, but they face Kyle Freeland in Coors on Wednesday night so I’m inclined to play a few of them in my lineup. Will Smith just continues to rake from the catcher spot and if the Los Angeles is going to have a good night at the plate you know Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez are going to be involved.
- Luke Weaver has gotten bashed around quite a bit over the last month and a trip to Baltimore probably isn’t going to help matters. Austin Hays and Anthony Santander have been smashing the ball lately and are excellent lower priced options hitting at the top of a great lineup. Cedric Mullins is back to provide veteran depth to the Orioles lineup and I wouldn’t blame you for playing exciting youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson.
- You know Shohei Ohtani is going to hit at least HR, as it is just a nightly occurrence at this point. Had to be mentioned.
Hitter Pricing 6-28-23