Today’s slate starts at 7:10 ET with the Mets hosting the Nationals and features only three games. Yeah, I know, I wish there more games too. But let’s see what we’ve got.
Today’s SPs and 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious about its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Kodai Senga is the most expensive option on FD/DK and is a huge home favorite (-195) against the Nats. His last start was cut short due to rain but before that, Senga had rattled off four straight starts of over 100 pitches. Given that he’s now well-rested, he seems like a good bet for length today.
The Guardians rank just 25th in team wOBA but they are very good at making contact. In fact, they have the lowest team K rate in baseball at 18.3%. Sure enough, Dylan Cease’s two previous starts against this team back in May each netted three strikeouts, so this might not be a ceiling spot for him.
This is 100% a narrative on my part, so feel free to ignore it. But I do wonder a little bit about how the White Sox might react after the Lucas Giolito trade. Yes, they’ve been a mess all year but now that the dominoes are officially toppling over, they might bottom out further. Regardless, Tanner Bibee has been terrific and appears to have the on-paper advantage given that he’s flashed a slightly better K rate against RHB which should benefit him against a Sox lineup that features few LHB.
Josiah Gray and Miles Mikolas are the two options that seem the least appealing on paper. Mikolas doesn’t have much K upside and Gray is a big underdog on the road. However, Gray did have a great outing against the Mets earlier this year, so there’s that at least.
Bats
The Mets lead tonight’s slate with an implied total of about five and a half runs, so their lineup would appear to make the most sense on paper. Josiah Gray is a first-time All-Star but if you look past his 3.45 ERA you’ll find a 1.44 WHIP, a slightly below-average 20% K rate, and a sub-par 4.77 PLV / 4.77 PLA all suggesting that his ERA might rise a bit before the season ends. Tommy Pham is a salary saver. 2B looks like the thinnest position tonight, so Jeff McNeil seems like the cheap way out ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD). Francisco Alvarez feels like the best bet for power at catcher.
If you want to turn the slate on its head, and why not, its three games, Nationals bats are the way to do it since most rosters will feature Senga. Lane Thomas is hitting .293 with a .827 OPS and shouldn’t be on that many rosters, relatively speaking.
Miles Mikolas has been slightly worse against LHB for his career with a 1.24 WHIP/.306 wOBA allowed (1.11 WHIP/.293 wOBA allowed to RHB). He’ll face the Cubs and Cody Bellinger, who has really just been a man-possessed over the past month or so. He’s expensive and should be popular, but rightfully so, given the recent role he’s been in and that he’ll have the platoon advantage over a league-average type of pitcher like Mikolas. Unlike Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki won’t have the L/R advantage but I just feel like we haven’t seen his best yet. In other words, he seems like a good buy-low at his salary.
If this were a full slate, I’d probably have very little interest in picking on Justin Steele. But, here we are three games and all. If you’re going to pick against Steele, it’s with righty bats and the Cardinals at least have a lot of righty power. I’m a little interested in Tyler O’Neill mainly because he’s very cheap ($3,600 DK, $2,300 FD). Jordan Walker too ($3,000 DK, $2,800 FD). Paul Goldschmidt feels like the night’s contrarian spend at 1B.
Cease has shown strong splits this year; His K rate drops off nearly 10% against LHB. That makes Josh Naylor, José Ramírez, Josh Bell, and Andrés Giménez interesting options if you’re looking to be different. Guaranteed Rate Field is a good park for power, and if they get to Cease early, the Guardians could do damage against a suspect Sox pen.