Welcome back from the break! I hope everyone got a chance to watch the unbelievable performance by Pete Alonso at the HR Derby and the AL defeat the NL in a 5-to-2 game. Now, let’s start this with full disclosure; many SPs have not been officially announced. This lack of info is leaving a ton of holes for us to sift through. However, I have done the best job possible given what we have to break down today’s 14-game slate. Also, MIN@DET is the second half of a double-header and will only be scheduled for seven innings. With all the calamity that might lie ahead today, I will simply say, Good Luck!
Implied Run Totals
| Away | Total | Home | Total |
| NYM | 4.33 | PIT | 3.67 |
| LAD | 6.75 | COL | 4.75 |
| SD | 5.10 | WAS | 4.40 |
| BOS | 5.00 | NYY | 5.00 |
| TEX | 3.82 | TOR | 6.18 |
| MIL | N/A | CIN | N/A |
| MIN | N/A | DET | N/a |
| TB | 4.27 | ATL | 4.73 |
| BAL | N/A | KC | N/A |
| HOU | 4.82 | CWS | 4.18 |
| SF | N/A | STL | N/A |
| SEA | 3.97 | LAA | 5.03 |
| CHC | 4.84 | ARI | 4.16 |
| CLE | 3.50 | OAK | 5.00 |
Starting Pitchers
| Tier One | |||
| Player | Opponent | DraftKings | FanDuel |
| Brandon Woodruff | at CIN | $9500 | 10400 |
| Kevin Gausman | at STL | $10300 | $10600 |
| Robbie Ray | vs. TEX | $9300 | $9800 |
| Chris Bassitt | vs. CLE | $8500 | $9900 |
- Brandon Woodruff gets the nod at today’s top overall SP. He has been nothing short of spectacular on the season and has yet to throw less than five innings in a start. While we haven’t seen the massive double-digit strikeout performance in some time, maybe the break is the shot of energy for today. What should help lend a hand is Cinci’s 28% K-rate vs. RHP over the last 14 days.
- Kevin Gausman draws a matchup against the Cardinals, who have emphasized striking out less(19.1% vs. RHP in the last 14 days) and not making much hard contact. Either way, it’s hard not to trust Gausman as he continues to throw 90-100 pitches and execute well enough to rack up Ks.
- Robbie Ray’s new zone-reliant approach is leading to more strikeouts and going deeper into games. With strikeouts being the leading source of points in DFS, it’s hard to look past his potential. While the Rangers don’t strike out a ton vs. LHP, the ball clubs have severely outperformed their metrics in my eyes. If Ray can keep the ball in the yard, today should be smooth sailing for a win with plenty of Ks.
- Chris Bassitt could be looking for a little redemption today after not being selected to the ASG. Furthermore, what should aid his outing is facing Cleveland, who carry a robust 27% K-rate over the last two weeks. Keep in mind; this is the same Cleveland team that Eddie Rosario and trying to pass off an outfield that consists of Bradley Zimmer, Harold Ramirez, and Daniel Johnson. If Bassitt shoves tonight, you could be looking at terrific salary savings with a big point total.
| Tier Two | |||
| Player | Opponent | DraftKings | FanDuel |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | at CWS | $9100 | $9700 |
| Adam Wainwright | vs. SF | $7700 | $8800 |
| Kyle Hendricks | at ARI | $7500 | $7600 |
| Chris Flexen | at LAA | $6900 | $7000 |
- Lance McCullers Jr. touts the highest upside in strikeouts in the tier and comes with a much greater salary. However, I can’t move him up because of his erratic style. Sometimes McCullers is on, and sometimes he can’t locate the changeup. Additionally, he faces off against a White Sox club that is loaded with injuries. While I still believe Lance could toss a gem, I will knock him down to the top pick of my SP2 range due to the price.
- Adam Wainwright is the boring old veteran that many DFS players will overlook. However, over 105 IP, Waino has been balling. He carries a 31% CSW and tiny 1.12 WHIP in that timeframe. His curveball is generating nearly a 50% groundball rate with a 13.2 SwStr%. Sure, the Giants are a stout offense, but not if they put too many batted balls in the dirt.
- Kyle Hendricks is not the SP to pile up the strikeouts, but he will go deep into games and limit quality contact. Outside of his blips to begin the season, Hendricks has been phenomenal as of late. While I rarely consider Hendricks as a dominant SP, the skills play out great as a safer SP play to pair with someone like Ray with a higher K-upside. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are a subpar offense that typically fails to put up many runs on the board.
- Chris Flexen is so inexpensive on the slate that you can build any stack around him. Even better, he could also put up huge DFS points. The former KBO SP does things a little differently than other pitchers. He relies on a vast arsenal to keep batters off-balance and making poor contact. Lastly, in the last month, his K% has started climbing steadily. While I would never use him in any cash games, he garners plenty of GPP consideration.
Stacks
Toronto Blue Jays (Chalk Stack)
- Becoming one of the chalkier stacks on a nightly basis is the Toronto Blue Jays. And with the second-highest Implied Run Total (6.18), it should go as no surprise that the roster% will be sky-high. Included in the reasoning to stack Toronto is the matchup against Jordan Lyles, who, despite some early-season struggles, has performed decently in the last month. Furthermore, Lyles has already given up 13 HRs to right-handed hitters and carries a WHIP over 1.40 against lefties and righties. If I am targeting Toronto players to stack tonight, I will focus on the right-handed bats like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Marcus Semien; then try to get a little different with an inexpensive piece from the left-side like Cavan Biggio.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (Coors Stack)
- Coors Field is in play, so the massive roster% typically ends up there. Even more so when the away team has the firepower like the Dodgers. With the highest Implied Run Total(6.75), there is no doubt the Dodgers will draw heavy chalk from the field. Unfortunately, they face off against Antonio Senzatela, who doesn’t give up much hard contact and relies on a robust groundball rate. However, it’s Coors, so the runs should be popping. However, my focus would be on balance bats with good contact rates. The base of my Dodgers’ stack would be Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Will Smith, and Chris Taylor.
- On the flip side, let’s not forget we are still in Coors Field, which means plenty of run chances for the Rockies. They square off against southpaw Julio Urías, who has looked like the dominant pitcher everyone hoped he would turn into. However, if his curveball is not breaking due to the dense Colorado air, things might go south quickly-especially when you consider his fastball has a 42% flyball rate. If I have to stack the Rockies, I am swinging for the fences and going to anyone with HR-upside: Trevor Story(.190 ISO vs. LHP), C.J. Cron(.230 ISO vs. LHP), and Brendan Rodgers(.350 ISO vs. LHP).
San Diego Padres (Sneaky Stack)
- With all the attention towards Coors Field and Toronto, it could be very easy for the field not to roster enough Padres. I know it sounds silly that people would stack less of a tremendous offense, but it happens quite often on larger slates, hence why the Padres are my sneaky stack play of the day. Furthermore, the matchup against Erick Fedde, who was sputtering going into the break and giving up 14 earned runs(including four HRs) in his last three outings. Because Fedde gives up a ton of hard contact, again, I would be chasing bats with the HR upside vs. RHP profiles like Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth.
Value Bats
| Player | Position | DraftKings | FanDuel |
| Luis Torrens | C | $3200 | $2700 |
| John Nogowski | 1B | $2500 | $2400 |
| David Fletcher | 2B | $2900 | $3000 |
| Hunter Dozier | 3B | $3300 | $2800 |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | $3200 | $2400 |
| Alex Verdugo | OF | $3500 | $2900 |
| Jorge Soler | OF | $2900 | $2700 |
| Kole Calhoun | OF | $2000 | $2400 |
| Cavan Biggio | UT | $3500 | $2600 |
Featured image by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)