Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there! Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature 11 game main slates starting at 1:05. It’s forecasted to be pretty cloudy across the US, but the only rain is expected in the Midwest. So keep an eye on the Twins/Tigers, Reds/Indians, and Rockies/Cardinals games as they all have some rain in the forecast. Let’s dive in.
Top SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,700 DK, $12,500 FD) vs ARI
One thing I’m not doing today is getting cute. When Jacob deGrom is on the slate, that’s my first player I’m locking in and I’ll figure out the rest later. Compared to the other pitchers on this slate, deGrom has the highest strikeout rate and it’s not even close. To start the year, deGrom has struck out 48% of the batter’s he’s faced. His opponent today is the Diamondbacks, who currently sit in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ against righties – not that it matters with deGrom on the mound. While deGrom is quite pricy, there are a handful of super cheap pitchers that I like as your SP2 that can really help offset the cost.
Value SP: Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($6,900 DK, $7,100) vs PIT
I love when pitchers who have struggled some are in a great spot. Not only does Kyle Hendricks have a great matchup against the Pirates, but the wind in Wrigley Field is forecasted to be blowing in at 16 mph. Hendricks has been decent in four of his six starts this year, but still sports an ERA north of six, because of two rough starts against the Braves. The Pirates are a much different team than the Braves, as they sit in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ against righties.
There’s one more thing I want to mention for the pitching on today’s slate. I’m likely going to have one lineup of two value starting pitchers in a GPP tournament. That allows me to be different on two levels. One, I’m fading the deGrom chalk. While no one expects deGrom to ever bust, inevitably it does happen. Looking back at the 2019 season, deGrom had five starts where he allowed five earned runs or more. The second place where I’ll be different if fading deGrom is in roster construction. With saving almost $6,000 in salary, you can invest that money in your batting stacks, causing your build to be significantly different from those looking to save money after squeezing in deGrom.
3B Rafael Devers, BOS ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD) at BAL
First up on the list of pitchers to pick on is Dean Kremer. To start the year, Kremer has had a bad case of my favorite illness, homeritis. He’s allowed five homers in five starts, making him a prime stacking candidate. Rafael Devers has started the season off looking good, mashing seven homers and sporting a double-digit walk rate for the first time in his career. Over his last three games, he’s piled up eight combined runs and RBIs, which means this Red Sox lineup is humming. If you’re going deGrom, it might be tough to fit in Devers and J.D. Martinez, but there are some cheaper bats in the Red Sox lineup like Alex Verdugo and Marwin Gonzalez, who is projected to bat at the top of the lineup per FantasyLabs.
OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($5,700 DK, $3,600 FD) vs WAS
While Aaron Judge is in a little bit of a slump, Giancarlo Stanton has continued to smash laser beam homers in Yankees Stadium. Stanton is up to nine big flies on the year and gets a matchup today with Joe Ross. The Nats righty has pitched decently to start the year but has allowed six homers, including four homers against the Cardinals. I could see the Yankees putting a hurting on Ross, who has allowed a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate since the start of the 2020 season.
Value Batter: OF Garrett Cooper, MIA ($3,800 DK, $2,200 FD) vs MIL
One of my favorite sneaky stacks today is the Marlins against Brett Anderson. The Milwaukee lefty is returning from the IL and gets a Marlins team that currently sports the seventh-highest ISO against left-handed pitchers. For his part, Anderson has been okay in the early going, but the strikeouts have almost disappeared altogether. Anderson has struck out just eight batters in 17 innings and his 6.81 xERA is quite different than his 4.04 ERA. Regression is coming for Anderson and it could come thanks to the Marlins bats. Since the start of 2020, the Marlins 1-4 batters – Miguel Rojas, Jesús Aguilar, Garrett Cooper, and Adam Duvall – all currently have ISOs over .300 and wOBAs that range from .349-.516. Aguilar is a little pricy at $5,200 on DraftKings, but Rojas and Duvall are in the low $4,000s and Cooper is at the low price of $3,800.
Top Stack: Mets vs ARI (RHP Riley Smith)
Since I’ve already talked about the Red Sox, Yankees, and Marlins, I wanted to talk about a team I haven’t touched on yet, the Mets. We all know the narrative that the Mets don’t score for deGrom, so there is that concern, but against Riley Smith, I think they put up a nice crooked number. Smith has struck out just 11% of the batters he’s faced, meaning the Mets will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play, and following Smith will be the Diamondbacks bullpen that has allowed 78 runs to cross the plate in 117 innings thrown. From the Mets, I like 1-5, which are Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, and Dominic Smith.
Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: BOS at BAL (Kremer); NYY vs WAS (Ross); HOU vs TOR (Pearson); MIA vs MIL (Anderson).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)