There are a few days a year when I feel like this guy and yesterday was one of them, with the most frustrating start coming from one of my favorite arms, Jameson Taillon who went 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It's horrendous. It's terrible. It's something I want to act like never happened and move on with our lives. Here are some stats from this game: When batters swung at a pitch inside the zone, they hit it 100% of the time. Batters held a 66.7% HR/FB rate with 38.9% line drives. He allowed a hit for every out. You get the idea. For fantasy purposes, this is Taillon's second straight absolute clunker - 17 ER in two games after allowing 12 ER in his previous seven games - and you're thinking you should drop him. I wouldn't. These starts just don't seem right. Velocity is there, movement is there...even the heatmaps are actually pretty similar to what he was doing during the year prior. You guys know I'd be the first to say "aha! He can't throw strikes," or "this pitch is terrible," etc. What I grasp is he's making more mistake pitches than usual and they have been crushed when they weren't prior. It could be a small mechanical tweak, it could be a hidden injury, it could be tipping. The point is, this isn't the new normal and either he misses time or I expect him to still be valuable down the stretch. That's not me "defending my guys", that's me not taking the easy way out and trusting my gut. If you own him, bench him - duh - and don't drop unless you're desperate for help now or there are clear players that will help you.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
I am guessing that you did not watch Taillon yesterday. Not that he was great but his defense was piss poor. Statistically speaking they were the worst kind of mistakes – the kind that don’t get recorded as errors but should have been easy outs. He was basically working with a little league defense behind him. It was nothing worth losing much faith over.
On a less anecdotal note, ever since he returned from cancer he has been throwing harder and generally less effective. I think he is caught in between power and finesse right now. He might need an off-season to figure out what he is.
Hey nick, awesome work as always. I feel like the consistency in velo, break, and heatmaps for taillon, combined with the fact that they hit 100% of his pitches in the zone, is a clear indicator of pitch tipping. His stuff is still as good, but the hitters know whats coming. Would love to know your thoughts. Hope he can figure it out.
I agree — if velo, movement, heat maps the same for Taillon, then hidden injury or mechanical flaws are not logical deductions from that data. You make a good case for pitch tipping. Could also be poor defense, random bad luck or some combination of these factors.
There were not hitting balls hard… except for Billy Hamilton, so that pretty much dispels that theory for me. I absolutely hate the tipping pitches argument, it is such a convenient excuse for struggles. He simply is not executing all that well and his defense did not help. Nobody has good enough stuff to just miss bats – there is all kinds of luck and sequencing involved.
Also, just fyi maeda has gone more than 5 innings FOUR times, not twice. I know you hate him but gta be accurate.
Would you drop Taillon for Conley?
Nope! I’d hold Taillon.