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Top Play SP: Matt Boyd, DET ($11,100) at KCR
Where my “Boyd Boyz” at? Sorry, the hype man inside me came out for a minute. Matt Boyd has been excellent this year, putting up a career best 32.0% strikeout rate to go along with a career best 4.5% walk rate. Today, Boyd faces the Royals, who have a wRC+ of 75 against left-handed pitching, which has them tied with the Pirates for next to last in the league. They also are striking out at a 24.3% clip against lefties. I’m locking in Boyd as my SP1 today.
Honorable mention: Charlie Morton, TBR ($11,800) at BAL.
Value SP: Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($8,100) at MIA
Noah Syndergaard just has not been right this year. He’s faded the usage of his slider, his best pitch from last year and is throwing his worst pitch, his sinker, more often. He’s switched to a sinker/changeup approach, as his changeup usage has doubled since last season, and it’s just not working. All of that being said, he has the best matchup on today’s slate. As bad as Syndergaard’s been, the Marlins have been worse. They are next to last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and dead last in ISO at .120. In fact, their ISO is so far in last, the next closest team is the Cardinals at .148. There’s risk involved, but if the Marlins are getting to Syndergaard, it’ll be a slow death featuring lots of singles.
Honorable Mention: Merrill Kelly, ARI ($8,400) at STL.
Top Play: OF David Dahl, COL ($4,500) vs. CIN
This is just too cheap a price for David Dahl, in Coors against a mediocre righty. For the year, Dahl’s been very good against right-handed pitching, putting up a 123 wRC+ in Coors. Dahl faces Tanner Roark, who’s allowed a .241 ISO and .397 wOBA to left-handed batters. While Roark’s strikeout rate is up four percent this year to 23.2%, his rate against lefties has actually declined to 19.1%. The Rockies are, as a whole, surprisingly cheap for being at home.
Honorable mention: OF Aaron Judge, NYY ($5,200) vs. TOR.
Top Play: 3B Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($5,300) at COL
Yesterday, I specifically faded Coors because I had respect for the Grays, but I’m back on-board with the bats today. Eugenio Suarez faces the recently recalled Kyle Freeland. Freeland got sent down to AAA on May 31st to see if he could bounce-back to the pitcher that finished fourth in Cy Young voting last year. He did not enjoy his time in Albuquerque. Freeland started six games in AAA, throwing 29.2 innings and allowing 56 base-runners and 29 earned runs. For those unable to do the quick math, that’s an 8.80 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. I expect the Reds and Suarez to welcome Freeland back to Coors by reminding him how difficult it is to pitch there.
Honorable mention: 2B/OF Lourdes Gurriel, TOR ($5,400) at NYY; C Gary Sanchez, NYY ($4,600) vs. TOR.
Value: 1B Brandon Belt, SFG ($4,000) at MIL
Any time Brandon Belt gets a significant park upgrade, I immediately check his price. Nine times out of ten, we’re catching him at a discount. Belt has had 123 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers outside of Oracle Park and he’s put up a .276 ISO and .395 wOBA. Belt faces Zach Davies today, who has allowed a .364 wOBA to lefties.
Honorable mention: C Danny Jansen, TOR ($3,600) at NYY; 2B Jose Altuve, HOU ($3,600) at TEX; 1B Nate Lowe, TBR ($3,700) at BAL.
Top Stack: Yankees vs. Blue Jays (LHP Clayton Richard)
Today the Yankees’ starting lineup will feature seven right-handed bats. Why is that relevant? Because they face Clayton Richard, also known as Mr. 10.9% strikeout rate and Mr. 40.3% hard-hit rate to right-handed batters. Righties have crushed Richard this year, putting up a .266 ISO and .416 wOBA. Six of those righties that he’ll face today have a wOBA over .343 (league average is around .320). The bonus is that only two of those main bats are priced above $4,700. Feel free to plug in whatever bats fit your lineup, but my favorites are Gary Sanchez ($4,600), D.J. LeMahieu ($5,300), Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200), and Aaron Judge ($5,200). Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Rockies vs. Reds (RHP Tanner Roark).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.