The Dynasty Baseball Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.]
The fantasy value of a pitcher can change in the blink of an eye. One moment they are considered an ace, and the next they are out for the season. Staying up to date can be challenging even for the most dedicated fantasy managers. That is the goal of these dynasty performance reports the Pitcher List dynasty team is producing. I have the privilege of breaking down which pitchers are seeing their dynasty value fluctuate. Keep reading for the major league edition of the dynasty pitcher performance report.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Pitchers with Rising Dynasty Value
Spencer Schwellenbach – ATL
Prospect coverage in the dynasty community is vast, with several analysts from multiple websites all trying to find the next big thing. Even then, some prospects slip right through the cracks. Each off-season, I dive into every team’s farm system to stay up to date on prospects while the full season is not going. While researching the farm system, Spencer Schwellenbach was one name I could not believe I had never heard of. The Braves selected Schwellenbach in the second round of the 2021 draft signing him for $1 million. Tommy John surgery delayed his professional debut until 2023 when Schwellenbach posted a 2.49 ERA across 16 starts.
Not only are the Braves notorious for pumping out high-quality pitching prospects, but Schwellenbach’s arsenal itself should have caught the eyes of dynasty managers. His four-seam fastball sits comfortably around 96 mph and generates over 16 inches of vertical break. On top of his plus fastball, Schwellenbach also mixes in five different offerings which he can throw in any count. Although his four-seam is his most thrown pitch overall, Schwellenbach relies heavily on his breaking pitches. Against righties, his slider is his most thrown pitch holding opponents to a .190 average and generating whiffs 24.1% of the time. Against lefties, Schwellenbach ditches the slider for a filthy splitter which lefties whiff almost 50% of the time on.
The Braves sent Schwellenbach to High-A to start 2024, but that did not last long. He was quickly promoted to Double-A and after just two starts there, he found himself in the major leagues. Like many young pitchers, Schwellenbach struggled early on in his first taste of major league action. Through six starts, Schwellenbach’s ERA was 5.68 although he was pitching much better than that. His FIP sat down at 4.03 and his xFIP was 3.87. The most puzzling part was that Schwellenbach’s strikeout rate was just 23.2%. This was in line with his minor league numbers, but still comes as a surprise for an arsenal with as much potential as his.
In the past month, Schwellenbach’s numbers have soared. In his last five starts, he is striking out over 30% of opposing batters. He has struck out 11 and 10 batters respectively in each of his previous two starts. The best part for fantasy managers is that Schwellenbach is not sacrificing any of his control. Across his last five starts, he has walked just one batter in total. Since the start of July, only Blake Snell, Bailey Ober, and Hunter Greene have a lower WHIP than Schwellenbach.
Making the jump from Double-A to the major leagues is never easy. After a rough start, Schwellenbach is settling in nicely and turning into an excellent dynasty asset. He has a deep arsenal with multiple plus offerings that give him both upside and a safe floor. This past month has taken his dynasty value to new heights and it could continue to grow even higher as the season moves along.
Blake Snell– SFG
The 2023 National League Cy-Young Award winner had a rather bumpy off-season. Expecting a lucrative long-term deal, Snell sat on the free agent market for much longer than expected. Put off by his injury history and poor walk rates, many teams filled their rotation with other options that they felt to be a better value. Snell finally signed a two-year deal with the Giants in March which included an opt-out option after this year.
Through the first two months of the season, many executives around the league seemed to be proved right. Snell struggled to find his footing in San Francisco and owned a 9.51 ERA after his start on June 2. To make matters worse, Snell was forced to leave that game with a groin injury. By the end of June, Snell had pitched just 23.2 subpar innings for San Francisco. He walked over 11% of batters, his FIP sat at 4.66, and his dynasty value was in the toilet.
Snell returned to the mound on July 9 and made two scoreless starts prior to the All-Star Break. He carried that momentum with him into the second half and has looked like one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Across his last six starts, Snell has pitched 39 innings with a 1.15 ERA. He has maintained his strong strikeout rate (36%) and more impressively, has lowered his walk rate. Walks have been one of Snell’s kryptonite throughout his career. Over these last six starts, Snell is walking just 8.1% of batters. His no-hitter against the Reds has helped his dynasty value to rebound in a major way.
At 31 years old, Snell suddenly solving his control issues is something that may be difficult for many dynasty managers to believe. Sure, this run of success has been incredible to watch. However, is this sustainable? While Snell is not going to pitch to sub-two ERAs for the rest of the season, he has made a noticeable change to his pitch mix. To start the year, Snell was throwing his slider and curveball an almost identical amount. After returning from the IL, Snell has thrown his curve over 30% of the time while lowering his slider usage to below 10%.
Blake Snell, Dirty 81mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/UPjDMzKuyp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 7, 2024
Snell’s attack plan relies heavily on getting opposing batters to chase pitches out of the strike zone. The out-of-zone percentage on both his slider and curveball have sat above 60% for the majority of his career. The biggest difference this season has been the opposition’s ability to lay off his slider. In 2022, Snell generated a chase rate of over 38% on his slider. This season, opponents are only chasing 27.3% on his slider. This was inevitably leading to more walks for Snell early on this season. However, his curveball is still being chased over 38% of the time, and is thrown in the zone even more. This change in Snell’s pitch mix has allowed him to lower his walk rate and find more success on the mound.
While fantasy and dynasty managers were willing to be patient with Snell, his start to the year was so bad his dynasty value seemed to drop off a cliff. This past month and a half has been a welcome sight for dynasty managers who should feel more comfortable relying on Snell moving forward. Volatility remains prevalent in Snell’s profile, but he has as much upside as any pitcher in baseball.
Honorable Mentions:
Tyler Mahle– TEX
Stuck pitching in Cincinnati for years, the sky finally turned blue when Tyler Mahle got traded a few years ago. Since then, Mahle has unfortunately dealt with injuries that have put the next chapter of his career on hold. For the first time since April 27, 2023, Mahle returned to the mound last week. In his Rangers’ debut, Mahle held the Astros to one run across five innings. Mahle’s velocity looked strong matching the numbers he posted prior to his injury and he generated a 50% whiff rate on his splitter. Mahle is a forgotten name in fantasy circles, but health can do wonders for a player’s value. Dynasty managers should not forget that Mahle is still only 29 years old.
Spencer Arrighetti– HOU
To start the year, Spencer Arrighetti was a popular breakout pick amongst many in dynasty circles. Arrighetti (which my mind likes to refer to as spaghetti), started the season in Triple-A before making his major league debut on April 10. He lasted just three innings in that start surrendering seven runs to the Royals. Arrighetti struggled through his first eight starts posting a 6.93 ERA before his season turned around. In 13 starts since, Arrighetti owns a more respectable 4.14 ERA, but has looked dominant over the past month. Over his last six starts, Arrighetti owns a 3.25 ERA with multiple 12+ strikeout games. At just 24 years old, Arrighetti’s dynasty value is trending straight up.
Pitchers with Falling Dynasty Value:
Kutter Crawford – BOS
Kutter Crawford was the first pitcher featured in the original 2024 dynasty performance report published back in April. Crawford’s season could not have gotten off to a much better start. An increased reliance on his sweeper seemed to unlock a new level of production fueling Crawford’s breakout. By the end of April, Crawford owned a 1.35 ERA with a 2.22 FIP. Although 28 years old, Crawford seemed to be one of the season’s biggest breakouts and was a popular commodity in dynasty circles.
Once the calendar flipped to May, Crawford’s production dropped off. He posted an ERA north of five in the month of May but rebounded nicely to close out the first half. Across his final eight starts before the break, Crawford posted a 2.56 ERA. This was comforting for dynasty managers to see. Nobody expected him to be as good as his first month was, but Crawford still profiled to be a reliable arm moving forward.
Unfortunately for Crawford and dynasty managers, the second half could not be off to a worse start. Crawford has allowed at least five runs in each of his four starts. He has allowed 22 runs and struck out just 15 batters. The biggest issue for Crawford has been the long ball. In the nine starts where Crawford has not allowed a home run, he owns a 1.52 ERA. Seems fairly straightforward. More home runs leads to more runs for the opposition. Obvious. However, home runs take Crawford from an elite pitcher to one of the worst in baseball. His home run problem has been especially bad as of late allowing at least three home runs in three of his last four starts.
Is Crawford as bad as he has been in his last four starts? The answer is obviously no. All three of his primary pitches grade out as above-average offerings according to PLV. However, the long ball is posing to be a serious issue that can be detrimental in league formats like Ottoneu. Crawford is a fly-ball pitcher who relies on a fastball variation over 64% of the time. Home runs are not going away and dynasty managers need to factor this into their evaluation of his long-term value.
Drew Thorpe – CWS
The White Sox’s ability to recoup Drew Thorpe in a deal for Dylan Cease was a major success. Thorpe was traded twice this past off-season first from New York to San Diego and then from San Diego to Chicago. Multiple front offices clearly thought very highly of him to make him the centerpiece of two big moves. For the most part, the dynasty community was in full agreement with major league front offices on this one. Thorpe was viewed as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball coming off a season where he went 14-2 with a 2.52 ERA in the Yankees’ minor league system. The White Sox sent Thorpe to Double-A to begin the 2024 season. Thorpe found success just as easy to come by with his new team as he owned a 1.35 ERA through 11 starts.
Despite his success, skeptics throughout the dynasty community seemed to grow louder and louder. Sure, Thorpe was having incredible success in Double-A, but did he have the arsenal to compete against tougher competition? His changeup is one of the best in all of baseball, but pitchers cannot get by on one pitch alone… especially a changeup. What would Thorpe’s strikeout rate look like against major league hitters? His ERA was impeccable, but if he was only striking out 25% of minor league batters, what would that number look like against more skilled hitters? It was difficult for Thorpe’s dynasty value to fall thanks to his 1.35 ERA, but it certainly was not rising at the rate his success would indicate.
Despite these underlying concerns, the White Sox had seen enough to promote Thorpe to the major leagues on June 11. He pitched well in his first start going five innings allowing just one earned run against the Mariners. Thorpe has made eight starts since that first one and things have certainly not gone his way. In those eight starts, Thorpe owns a 5.98 ERA and his indicators suggest he has even gotten lucky. Thorpe’s FIP sits at 6.28 which is the fourth worst in baseball since June 16. The only pitchers with worse ERA indicators are Kutter Crawford, Roddery Muñoz, and Charlie Morton. Things have been even worse recently. Thorpe surrendered 14 runs over his last two starts before landing on the IL with a forearm strain.
Poor performance and an arm injury have Thrope’s dynasty value falling fast. The reality of the situation is that everything scouts were skeptical about is coming true. Thorpe’s changeup has been fantastic. This is his most used pitch and is generating a whiff 37.9% of the time. The PLV on this pitch sits at 5.3 which is well above the league average. However, everything else has been terrible. Not a single one of Thorpe’s other pitches owns a PLV over 4.95. Thrope’s four-seam fastball is generating a whiff rate of just 7.7% of the time and has already given up four home runs. To make matters worse, opponents are batting .333 against Thorpe’s slider. Control was Thorpe’s calling card throughout the minor leagues, but his walk rate is up over 11% so far. His 2.1% K-BB rate is the third worst in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.
Young pitchers struggle all of the time in their major league debut. The transition from the minor leagues to the major leagues is never easy. However, the concerns with Thorpe should not be overlooked. Thorpe’s best pitch is his changeup which does not often lead to sustainable major league success as a starter. Thorpe has never struck out batters at a high rate and this has gotten even worse at the major league level. The dynasty outlook on Thorpe has changed drastically since the start of the season. He should be viewed as more of a back-end starter rather than a potential future ace for your fantasy teams.
Honorable Mentions:
Ranger Suárez – PHI
Ranger Suárez’s season got off to such a fantastic start, his value was always bound to return to earth. Through his first 16 starts, Saurez owned a 10-2 record and a minuscule 1.83 ERA. Across his last four starts, Suarez is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. Prior to the All-Star Break, Suarez was dealing with back soreness which prevented him from pitching in the All-Star Game.
Still, Suarez made his first start of the second half before landing on the IL with his back injury. Durability has been an issue for Suarez throughout his professional career having only eclipsed 125 innings one time in his career. While this injury is not considered serious, it has undoubtedly dampened his dynasty value. Suarez is not a 7-ERA pitcher, but he is also not a sub-2 guy. His true value lies somewhere in the middle. This is the realization many dynasty managers have come to in the past month.
Paul Sewald – ARI
This is a pitcher performance report, not a starting pitcher performance report. While there have not been many relief pitchers included on this report throughout the season, Paul Sewald’s dynasty value has certainly taken a massive hit over the past month. After starting the year hurt, Sewald has struggled to find his footing. His ERA sits at 4.08 but is up at 9.00 since the start of July. The Diamondbacks have removed him from the closer role and at 34 years old, it is difficult to envision him becoming a reliable arm again. Age was already deflating Sewald’s dynasty value and his recent struggles have further compounded that. The sell-high window has officially closed for Sewald managers. The best-case scenario is that he signs with a new team in the off-season that believes he can still be an effective closer.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by David J. Griffin / Icon Sportswire