The Dynasty Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The Inaugural Major League Report for the 2024 season will set the foundation for this monthly series. Each month, I will provide a brief recap of the players outlined in the previous edition of the article, followed by players who I’ve identified as current risers and fallers. If you’re prospect-focused, a minor league edition of this report will also run monthly.
Any mention of rankings in this article is directly from my personal Top 350 Dynasty Rankings.
June was a fun month for outfielders, headlined by the promotion of Nationals’ outfield prospect James Wood and memorable power outputs from Aaron Judge and Anthony Santander (more to come on both). We are approaching the All-Star break and trade deadline on July 30th, and the outfield landscape could dramatically change. The expectation is that a seller’s market is rapidly developing, which could result in many faces in new places. Skills change occasionally, but trades can offer young players a much-needed opportunity and boost veterans into more favorable situations. Here is a look at the latest risers and fallers in the Major League Outfield Dynasty Performance Report.
RISERS
Jarren Duran, BOS
The tenure of Jarren Duran in Boston has been eventful, to say the least. Duran was a Top 5 organizational prospect entering the 2021 season. He ultimately debuted in July, playing in 33 games down the stretch for the Sox before testing positive for COVID, ending his season. His 2022 season was a struggle on and off the field. Duran openly talked about his mental health and the underlying issues he experienced in addition to his poor play. Things hit rock bottom for Duran in July 2022 when he lost a fly ball in the lights, which led to an inside-the-park home run. Offensively, he hit .221 with three homers and seven steals that season, while his defensive mishaps made him one of the worst players in baseball. Things have gone much better since then.
Duran was recalled to the Red Sox in mid-April 2023. From that day on, Duran has been one of the best outfielders in baseball and arguably the most valuable Red Sox. In 102 games last season, he slashed .295/.346/.482 with eight homers and 24 steals. His aggressive nature on the bases sets the tone for the team and has transformed the Red Sox lineup entirely. Duran’s aggression is fueled by his speed, instincts, and athleticism, which makes him extremely dangerous and exciting. Duran has elite sprint speed, which ranks in the 95th percentile in baseball. His ability to read outfielders and put pressure on the defense has been instrumental in his overall success. Each time Duran hits a ball into the gap or gets on base, the fun begins!
Despite his success in 2023, this season has been Duran’s coming-out party. The first-time All-Star is experiencing his best season to date. In 2024, Duran is batting .276 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 59 runs, and 21 steals. All of those stats are a career-best, and it’s only July. His quality of contact metrics are up across the board, including a two mph jump in average EV and a career-high 8.8% barrel rate. His strikeout rate is down 2%, and his walk rate is up 2%. Everything is trending up for Duran, who turns 28 in September. The next step for the Sox is locking up Duran to a long-term extension.
The most overlooked aspect of his development has been his improvement defensively. Things were abysmal for Duran in ’22, the season where he finished with a -2 OAA. Duran’s OAA is +6 this season, which ranks in the 94th percentile. Even more impressive is that he’s playing all three outfield positions at a high level. As a Dynasty asset, there aren’t many outfielders on a better trajectory right now. Duran’s value has skyrocketed over the past 18 months, and if you don’t own him already, the cost to acquire him should be astronomical. Duran has ascended into the Top 100 overall.
Jackson Merrill, SDP
In three months, Jackson Merrill has turned 21 and gone from a surprise addition to the Padres’ Opening Day roster to an MLB All-Star and budding superstar. The Padres drafted Merrill with the 27th overall pick in 2021, signing the prep shortstop to a $1.8M deal to forego his commitment to the SEC. In 200 MiLB games, Merrill slashed .295/.347/.455 with 21 homers and 31 steals. While the surface stats don’t jump off the page, Merrill was an elite hitter in the minors. As a teenager, Merrill shined at the dish, showing an advanced approach and ability to spray the ball to all fields. His career walk rate was 14.3%, with a strikeout rate of 16.6%. Last season at High-A and Double-A, Merrill had an 81.4% overall contact rate, which ranked among the best at the level and in the minors.
Most often, a great hit-tool in the minors doesn’t necessarily translate to the Big Leagues, but Merrill has impressed with the bat in his rookie campaign. On the year, Merrill is slashing .288/.322/.452 with 12 homers and 10 steals. His in-zone contact rate is 89.3%, and his overall contact rate is 82.1%. His bat-to-ball skills have led to a sub-17% strikeout rate, although his 55% swing percentage (8% above league average) has significantly impacted his walk rate, which sits at 4.9%. The aggressive nature of Merrill’s approach isn’t abnormal for young players, nor for Merrill, who had a 50% rate in the minors in 2023. I’d anticipate positive regression on his walks in the future, as Merrill has excellent pitch recognition and an advanced feel for the zone.
The metrics love Merrill and fully support his performance thus far, while some even indicate a bit of bad luck. In fact, his .299 xBA (11 points), .508 xSLG (56 points), and .357 xWOBA (22 points) are all higher than his actuals. The quality of contact for Merrill has been better than anticipated, including a 90mph average EV and 8.5% barrel rate. As expected, his 35.4% chase rate is among the worst in baseball, but in general, Merrill has a Statcast page littered with red.
Earlier, I mentioned that Merrill was a prep shortstop, a position he played until Spring Training this season. Perhaps the most impressive part of what Merrill has done so far is that he’s playing center field. By transitioning to the outfield, Merrill allowed the Padres to maintain their core infield (Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado) and provided him with more playing time. Merrill hits in the lower third of the Padres’ lineup but has begun playing more against left-handed pitching, which should result in everyday at-bats. In the next iteration of my dynasty rankings, don’t be surprised to see Merrill inside the Top 100 overall and in the Top 25 at his position.
Honorable Mention:
Aaron Judge, NYY
If you roster high-end outfielders, you probably enjoyed the past 30 days. Many elite players had massive months, led by Aaron Judge, who slashed .409/.514/.864 with 11 homers and 37 RBI. Judge has been on a torrid pace since May 1st, including 25 homers over the two months. We knew Judge was among the best players at the position, but there’s a black cloud lingering over his health. After his historic 2022 season, Judge played in just 106 games last season, mainly due to a broken toe. In addition, Judge has missed time with back, hip, shoulder, and oblique injuries throughout his career. But, on a per-game basis, Judge is arguably the best player in fantasy. In 2024, Judge is on pace for 58 homers, 149 RBI, and 126 runs scored, and he could do that while batting over .300. Judge jumped to fourth overall in my Top 350 dynasty rankings and is the #1 OF.
Anthony Santander, BAL
Speaking of a hot June, Anthony Santander was equally productive. The 29-year-old switch-hitter belted 13 homers in the month while batting .264. Santander offers little speed or average (career average .247), but his HR totals and counting stats help maintain his viability in dynasty. Perhaps the most alluring aspect of his profile is his durability. Dating back to 2021, Santander has averaged 138 games played per season, and as a regular in a loaded Orioles’ lineup, his floor is very safe. My lone caution with him moving forward is that Santander is a free agent after this season. Given the Orioles’ roster depth, it will be interesting to see where he plays next season.
FALLERS
Nolan Jones, COL
The second half of 2023 was very kind to Nolan Jones and those lucky enough to pluck him from their league’s waiver wire. Jones’ rise to stardom was unexpected after an offseason trade shipped Jones from Cleveland to Colorado in exchange for one of my favorite prospects, Juan Brito. The Guardians selected Jones in the 2nd round of the 2016 Draft, and he performed well in his time in their organization. As a prospect, Jones profiled as having an advanced approach at the plate with mid-grade power and marginal speed. The belief was that Jones’ patience was problematic and would lead to higher-than-usual strikeouts, which proved true as Jones struck out over 30% of the time. Even still, Jones hit .273 with 60 home runs and 27 steals in six seasons as a member of the Cleveland organization. The problem for Jones in Cleveland was no clear path to the big leagues. He was blocked at third base (José Ramírez), and the Guardians had other options they preferred in the outfield. The trade to Colorado felt like a classic change of scenery for Jones where he could play regularly, and he took full advantage.
Jones played 39 games at Triple-A Albuquerque before the Rockies promoted him in mid-May. He slashed .356/.481/.711 with 12 home runs in the hitter-friendly PCL before his call-up. Then Jones hit the major leagues and took the fantasy world by storm. Over 103 games, Jones hit .297 with 20 homers and steals, achieving the desired 20-20 season in 2/3 of the typical timeframe. The power/speed blend Jones displayed, plus an offensive environment like Coors Field, made Jones an immediate impact player. Jones went from a near-busted prospect to a Top-100 dynasty asset in 12 months, a truly meteoric rise. The allure of his production masked the flaws in his game, notably his strikeout woes. Jones continued to strike out at a 29.7% clip, aided by a 31.9% whiff rate, 26.5% chase rate, and 70.6% overall contact rate. Regardless, Jones climbed into fantasy stardom and was the trendy name entering 2024.
The momentum Jones carried into 2024 has faded quickly. Over the first two months, Jones hit .170 with one homer and two steals before a back injury forced him to the IL. Multiple setbacks while rehabbing his back, including a knee injury, kept Jones from the lineup until June 14th. On the season, he’s slashing .187/.291/.303 with three homers and three steals. His strikeout rate is 34.3%, and all his batted ball data is down over the previous season.
Jones has missed a ton of time this season. He’s been vocal about feeling out of sync and has been increasingly aggressive to compensate for his deficiencies. In addition, Jones has begun losing at-bats to less talented players in the Rockies outfield. While this is true, his profile shows a track record of volatility, and the 2023 season may be a clear outlier in his career. If you can buy Jones at his rock-bottom price now, the upside is tantalizing enough, but be wary of the highs and lows.
Honorable Mention:
MJ Melendez, KCR
There’s a lot to like in Melendez’s batted-ball profile, but the third-year outfielder has not realized his potential. In his first two seasons, he’s averaging .227 with 17 homers. Melendez hits the ball incredibly hard, evidenced by his 93.1 mph average EV last year and a 91.1 mph mark this season. But the frequency in which he’s making contact has limited his upside. Melendez has a career strikeout rate of 30% and overall contact rate of 71.5%. The Royals continue to play Melendez nearly every day, but his boom-or-bust inconsistency is problematic for dynasty owners.
The overall stat line for Jazz has been fine. He’s hitting .255 with 10 homers and 17 steals on the year, which puts him on pace for a career-best season. Plus, Chisholm has remained healthy thus far, which is a bonus. But, looking below the surface, Chisholm is performing poorly and weirdly. Since his debut in 2021, Chisholm has posted career lows in barrel rate, average EV, and Hard Hit rate. In addition, his groundball rate is now 52.7%, while his line drive rate is the lowest of his career. On the flip side, his strikeout rate is down to 24.9%, and his walk rate is up by 2%, despite him chasing and swinging more than ever. It’s been a mixed bag for Chisholm, and now the Marlins are reportedly making him available in trade talks. I’ve never been a big Chisholm fan, but I’ve got him trending in the wrong direction despite his newfound health.