The weather is heating up around the country and so are some of the top outfield bats in the Minor Leagues. Several high-end talents have made their MLB debuts this season, including Nationals’ outfielder James Wood and All-Star Jackson Merrill of the Padres. Speaking of the All-Star break, teams are returning to action this weekend following the midsummer classic. With the July 30th trade deadline looming, I’d anticipate plenty of prospect movement before next month’s report.
RECAP OF v3.0
Risers
Dylan Beavers, BAL: June was Beavers’ worst statistical month of the season. He hit .180 with two homers and five steals but reached base safely in 10 straight games early in the month.
Jaison Chourio, CLE: The surface numbers (.217/.307/.386) weren’t great for Chourio, but he had 11 extra-base hits with six steals in June. His walk and strikeout rates were nearly identical, and his overall line is impressive. A promotion to High-A over the next few weeks for Chourio is within reason.
Brailer Guerrero, TBR: Guerrero continues to run at will, stealing five bases in 12 games this month. He added one homer and three RBIs, although he had 18 strikeouts in 44 at-bats, which pushes his strikeout rate to 31.1% on the season.
Fallers
Victor Scott II, STL: The struggles have continued for Scott, but he did raise his batting average to .214 on the season. The most frustrating thing overall is that Scott has not been running. He had just six steals in the month, although you can’t run if you aren’t on base. His season-long on-base percentage is .284, 85 points lower than last year.
Nelson Rada, LAA: I took a little heat for having Rada on this list, but I’m still not in on his profile. June was another mediocre month as Rada hit .186 with just one homer and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Yes, Rada is just 18 and has already reached Double-A, but stolen bases aside, there isn’t much to be excited about.
Kevin Alcantara, CHC: Unfortunately, Alcantara suffered a shoulder injury that limited him to just 11 games in June. Upon his return, it was more of the same. He had 17 strikeouts in 39 at-bats and mustered just one extra-base hit. Alcantara has been better in July thus far, but my concerns about his long-term value remain the same.
Chase DeLauter, CLE: The 22-year-old outfield remains sidelined with a foot injury and has not played in a game since May 28th.
RISERS
Aidan Smith, SEA
The Mariners 2023 draft class has been incredibly successful thus far. They had three first-round picks that have been dynamic thus far, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, and Jonny Farmelo. In addition, 2nd-rounder Ben Williamson and 12th-round pick Logan Evans have started their pro careers with a bang. Their fourth-round pick, Aidan Smith, could be the best performer of anyone in their class. Smith, who turns 20 in two weeks, has been outstanding for Class-A Modesto. In his first 77 games, Smith has a .284 average with nine homers, 26 doubles, and 28 steals. A 29% strikeout rate isn’t great, but it has ticked up 4% after a slow June. Smith has a 17.5% walk rate, and although we should walk rates with a grain of salt at that level, he has shown other enticing skills for his young age.
Smith is a 6-foot-3, 200 lb. corner outfielder with a strong build. His swing is compact and quick to the ball, with no unnecessary movement. Through June, Smith had a 77% contact rate, a solid mark for a first-year player and consistent with a plus hit tool. While his current exit velocities are marginal, Smith has solid power to all fields and has consistently found his home run stroke to the pull side. Smith offers value aside from his solid plate skills. Entering the Draft, he had 60-grade speed, according to MLBPipeline. Smith is producing on the bases, succeeding on 32 of his 36 attempts as a pro. As he fills out physically, his future stolen base outcome projects in the 15-20 range. A bonus for Smith is that he has shown above-average ability in the outfield. Given his athleticism, Smith will likely stick in a corner spot long-term.
Entering my July prospect updates, I had Smith firmly inside the Top 125, and I feel a move inside the Top 100 is on the horizon. Smith has the skill set to provide a solid floor, offering an elevated batting average with 20/20 homer-steal potential. The Mariners have been inconsistent in producing quality outfielders over the years, but Smith has the potential to be a solid Major Leaguer.
Crushed. Aidan Smith blasts his 9th home run. pic.twitter.com/i9TykBeNuA
— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 11, 2024
Jhostynxon Garcia, BOS
For complete transparency, Garcia’s first name required multiple attempts at pronunciation. I was finally granted mercy by Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg), who informs me that it’s pronounced “Yos-Tin-Son.” Others have called him “The Password”, but in any event, he has become one of the hotter prospects in baseball. The 21-year-old Red Sox farmhand has burst onto the prospect scene this season, slashing .285/.363/.588 with 17 homers, 14 doubles, and 14 steals playing across two levels. Garcia was signed as a free agent in the 2019 International class but struggled in three previous seasons before his recent breakout.
Garcia has a slight build, standing 6′ and 170 lbs. His recent success has come in the power department, where his raw, natural power has come through in games for the first time this season. Despite his size, Garcia has better-than-average exit velocities, which has come from his powerful, pre-swing load. As you can see below, Garcia has a firm base at the time of the pitch, draws his front leg toward his back hip, and explodes through the zone. There are a lot of debates about the leg kick and how it affects the swing, but Garcia is making it work. Even though he’s got a good average this year, his profile is power-over-hit. If Garcia can settle in around .250 with 20-25 homers and a few steals sprinkled in, there’s value here. Don’t fall in love with the stolen base numbers because speed isn’t part of his profile and shouldn’t be a factor beyond the Minors.
It’s interesting to see Garcia’s growth this season, especially with the power. There are still swing-and-miss concerns (25% K-rate), and he could benefit from improving his contact skills (74%), but Garcia has become an intriguing prospect. In addition to having a fun name, the home run upside offers a lot to be excited about, and I’d keep Garcia on your radar. In my next update, Garcia will be inside my Top 200 prospects.
All Jhostynxon Garcia does is mash. 11 HR in 28 games in Greenville(High-A). This swing: a 107 mph exit velocity. pic.twitter.com/PurLuUsmL4
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) July 8, 2024
Honorable Mention:
Henry Bolte, OAK
A’s prospect Henry Bolte continues to produce in the Minors and is catching my skeptical eye. In 78 games, Bolte is batting .272 with 12 homers and 34 steals across two levels. This is the second consecutive season with 10+ homers and 30+ steals for Bolte, and it’s only July. It’s hard to argue that Bolte is productive, but massive red flags exist in the profile. First and foremost, Bolte has a 39% career strikeout rate and is making contact just 65% of the time this season. My other concern is how often he can get to his power, especially the pull side. A lot of the damage that Bolte does is to the opposite field, which does show raw power, but will that translate to the next level? I’ve got Bolte just inside my top 150, but I’d love to see tangible changes before he can reach a higher level.
FALLERS
Samuel Zavala, CHW
I’ve been a big Zavala fan since he burst onto the prospect scene in 2022, but things have been consistently trending in the wrong direction for the past few seasons. The pedigree was evident when the Padres gave him a $1.2M bonus in the 2021 class despite Zavala turning 16 just months earlier. Zavala came stateside in 2022 and showed plenty of raw talent and skill during his debut as a 17-year-old. He hit .272 with eight homers and five steals in 43 games split between the Complex and Low-A. His performance vaulted Zavala into the Top 10 organizational prospects and made him a player to watch.
Zavala returned to Low-A to start 2023 and picked up where he had left off. In 101 games, he slashed .267/.420/.451 with 14 homers and 20 steals. Following his promotion to High-A Fort Wayne, Zavala injured his oblique and hasn’t been the same. After the injury, he hit .078 with 19 strikeouts in 51 at-bats over 14 games. This Winter, Zavala was one of four players traded to the White Sox in exchange for Dylan Cease, and he’s continued to struggle with his new team. Playing exclusively at High-A this year, Zavala is batting just .199 with six homers, ten steals, and a 27.7% strikeout rate.
Zavala turned 20 on July 15th and is far from a busted prospect. He’s shown the ability to hit for average, hit for power, and run, but none of those skills have shown up since the midway point of last season. Was it the injury? It very well could be. But it’s been 88 games at High-A, and in that span, he’s batting .176 with a 29.3% strikeout rate. There have been no signs of improvement, and I’ve got to move him down in my rankings until I can see growth and positive results.
Jakob Marsee, MIA
You can argue that no prospect entered the 2024 season on a greater high than Padres’ outfielder Jakob Marsee. After all, Marsee put together a solid 2023 season that ended with a bang, winning MVP honors at the Arizona Fall League. In total, Marsee hit .294 with 21 homers, 28 doubles, and 62 steals in 153 games, 24 of which were at the AFL. He had a .429 on-base percentage and an OPS of .847 on the season, a career-best. There was a lot of buzz that he had a shot to make the Padres’ Opening Day roster entering Spring Training, but he was ultimately on the outside looking in after Jackson Merrill emerged. Just over a month into the season, Marsee was dealt to the Marlins in a package for INF Luis Arraez, offering him new hope to crack the lineup for a lowly Miami squad.
Unfortunately for Marsee, 2024 has been a mixed bag. On the surface, his stat line is quite weird. He has seven homers and 32 stolen bases, and for the second consecutive season, Marsee is trending toward 100 walks. His .327 on-base percentage is encouraging, but his .184 batting average is not. Also, as I expected, his power output dipped significantly (more on that later).
When Matt Heckman and I battled about Marsee last Fall, I had doubts about his long-term outcomes at the plate, specifically exit velocities and consistency with pull-sider power. I briefly touched on (see below) inflated stat lines from hitter-friendly environments, including the AFL. His home ballpark in Fort Wayne played to 315 feet in right field, an easy reach for even average power hitters. Gone are the days when he could flip the ball over the 315-foot fence, and now everything has changed. This season, his batted ball profile has flipped since moving organizations. His pull rate is down over 6%, while his opposite field rate has jumped 8%. In addition, his 17.6% HR/FB rate has dipped to just under 8%, a significant decrease from last season. His contact rate has ticked up 4%, his line drive rate is down 11%, and his strikeout rate is a career-worst 26.3%.
We see an outstanding stat line, including double-digit homers, a high OBP, and significant stolen base output, but what does that look like in the future? Is this the coming of age for a future superstar or an outlier in hitter-friendly environments? My gut says it’s the latter.
Where there is smoke, there’s usually fire. For Marsee, a move to a neutral hitting environment has exposed the warts in his profile. This season, Marsee will likely hit 15 homers and steal 50 bases as Matt said. But even with positive regression, a .200 average won’t get you to the big leagues, even in a weak organization.
Honorable Mention:
Carlos Jorge, CIN
It’s a bit weird listing Jorge on the fallers list for outfielders, but Jorge has played 67 of his 77 games in center field after predominantly being a middle-infielder for his first three seasons. Jorge performed well in rookie ball in 2021 and 2022, then dominated at Low-A before a promotion last August. Since moving to High-A Dayton, Jorge has been quite bad. In 99 games, he’s batting .218 with 13 homers and 23 steals. Those numbers don’t look terrible for a 20-year-old, but the underlying stats are worrisome. His contact skills have been atrocious. The overall contact rate is 64% with a 16% line drive rate, 19% swinging strike rate, and 36.6% strikeout rate. In 380 at-bats, Jorge has 139 strikeouts and his 80 wRC+ is among the worst at his level. For context, MLB players with similar wRC+ this season include Jake Burger, Bo Bichette, and Corbin Carroll. In most seasons you’d love to be in that company, but not in 2024.