A fun off-season activity is diving in and comparing veteran hitters to young up-and-comers. This off-season, the dynasty team at Pitcher List is running a series comparing some closely ranked players at each position and debating who is a better dynasty asset. For the rankings, we used Martin Sekulski’s final Top-350 dynasty ranking list from 2024. Sure, things have changed since then, but this gives us a good basis. Steve Dwyer already put out one for the shortstop which you can check out here. I have the task of debating third baseman in the article below.
Would You Rather: Third Base Edition
The Veteran: Austin Riley, ATL
Austin Riley is one of the premier power hitters in all of baseball. Throughout the course of his professional career, Riley has turned himself from a home run slugger, to a complete hitter who is routinely drafted amongst the top third basemen in fantasy. While Riley feels like a veteran, it may come as a surprise that he is still just 27 years old. There is a world where Riley could get even better in 2025.
Despite the upside and consistency Riley has, there is a bit of a negative stigma surrounding him in dynasty and fantasy circles. The Braves dealt with injuries up and down their lineup in 2025 and that included Riley. A broken hand limited Riley to just 110 games; the fewest he has played since taking over as the full-time starter. Even when healthy, Riley’s season was inconsistent. At the end of May, Riley was slashing just .228/.295/.353. Fantasy managers remember the beginning of seasons and the end of seasons far more than the middle. Riley struggled in the beginning and was unavailable at the end. Now, many are fading him from where he was once valued.
So, what should dynasty managers expect moving forward? There is no doubt that Riley is going to continue performing as an elite fantasy asset for the next several years. From June 1 through the end of the year, Riley slashed .275/.339/.531 with 16 home runs. Prior to last season, he had cleared 30 home runs in three straight seasons. His 600 PA pace after June 1 was 34 home runs. Riley is one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. He has never posted a barrel rate below 10% and he should see his batting average creep back up to his career-norms. Do not discount Austin Riley’s value both in 2025 and beyond.
The Up-and-Comer: Royce Lewis, MIN
The flashy, exciting, high-upside target for many at third base is Royce Lewis. Lewis has gone on some ridiculous power runs and has the power and pure speed to turn into an elite fantasy asset. Lewis’ dynasty value is incredibly high. Just 25 years old and with the pedigree of being the first overall pick a few years ago, acquiring Lewis feels like a dream. In Martin’s final Top-350 released at the end of 2024, Lewis ranked just two spots below Austin Riley as the 34th-best dynasty asset in baseball.
Is this dynasty value justified? Yes, Lewis has incredible potential. His 600 PA pace last season was 30 home runs. His first-half numbers were ridiculous and speak to the kind of upside he has. He slashed .292/.354/.685 with 10 home runs in less than 100 plate appearances. Everybody in fantasy knows about the upside and that is why he ranks amongst the best assets in dynasty.
However, with that upside comes extreme volatility. Lewis slashed just .207/.270/.350 and struck out nearly 25% of the time. Lewis’ hit tool is suspect at best. He chased over 33% of pitches he saw while whiffing 27% of the time. Not only is his hit tool a concern, but durability is a major issue. After playing just 58 games in 2024, Lewis played just 82 games. Looking through his professional career, Lewis has not played in more than 100 games since 2019. Piling onto the concerns with Lewis is his lack of speed. Injuries have taken a toll on Lewis’ body, and his sprint speed last season ranked in just the 28th percentile and he did not steal a single base. Lewis’ prospect report was predicated on a combination of speed and power giving him elite fantasy upside. That is no longer the case.
So, what is Lewis’ dynasty upside and how does it compare to the value of Riley? Lewis is a power hitter. With speed no longer a part of his game, the best-case scenario for Lewis is likely 40 home runs, an average around .260, and 5 stolen bases. People…. THIS IS EXACTLY WHO AUSTIN RILEY ALREADY IS. While we are hoping that Lewis becomes an elite fantasy asset and can stay healthy; Riley is already everything we hope Lewis can become. While Lewis is likely an overrated dynasty asset, Riley is underrated making this verdict an easy one.
Verdict: Riley and it should not be close
The Veteran: Alec Bohm, PHI
Alec Bohm’s 2024 season was a roller coaster that started incredible and slowly fell off the rails. Bohm’s first half was what Phillies fans and fantasy managers had been dreaming of since he was drafted third overall. At the end of the first half, Bohm was slashing .295/.348/.482. His success was emphasized by a surprisingly impressive performance in the Home Run Derby. Bohm dealt with a back injury in the second half and while the impacts are unclear, his numbers suffered. Bohm hit rock bottom during a rough divisional round playoff matchup in which he was benched and is now the center of trade discussions this off-season.
Dynasty managers are tasked with determining what Bohm’s future fantasy value looks like. Now 28, Bohm’s fantasy value has tanked from where it was early on this season. Philadephia is known as a hitter-friendly ballpark and any move could lead to suppressed numbers. Looking at Bohm’s career numbers, his wRC+ away from Philadelphia is actually slightly higher than it is at home although his home run numbers are much better at home. The biggest impact on Bohm’s future fantasy value could come in his RBI totals. Bohm scored 97 runs for the second consecutive season. How does that number look when he is not batting behind Trea Turner and Bryce Harper?
Removing team context, Bohm is still a great pure-hitter. He has excellent contact skills and has hit at least .274 in three straight seasons. The issue is that it is becoming increasingly likely Bohm never lives up to his power potential. His game is predicated on driving the ball to all fields with good line drive rates. Despite strong hard-hit rates, his barrel percentage has consistently sat around 6.5% and his home run per fly ball rate dropped below 10% last season. Bohm profiles to be exactly what he has been over the past couple of seasons. He is a high-floor, low-ceiling option for fantasy managers. He is a valuable asset but is unlikely to ever become a foundational piece of a championship team.
The Up-and-Comer: Coby Mayo, BAL
There might not be a prospect in baseball who entered 2024 with more helium than Coby Mayo. Part of the great Orioles farm system, Mayo has shown off incredible power throughout his professional career. Standing at 6’5″, the home runs have come effortlessly for Mayo. He hit 29 home runs in 2023 and many expected a seamless transition to the Major Leagues at some point in 2024.
After a fast start in Triple-A, Mayo’s first stint at the Major League level did not go as many hoped. In a small sample of 17 games, Mayo hit just .098 with zero home runs. The biggest red flag was a strikeout rate of 47.8%. While his hit tool was far from perfect in the Minor Leagues, nobody expected him to struggle quite as much as he did. Now, many in the dynasty community are wondering if they should adjust their future expectations for the Orioles’ young slugger.
The debate between these two players is fascinating. On the one hand, Bohm is a polished hitter who fantasy managers can rely on to produce a solid batting average and play consistently. On the other hand, he has never cleared 20 home runs in a season and could find himself on a new team with less favorable circumstances next season. Mayo is the near opposite. Mayo has no track record of reliable production and has struggled in his only Major League stint. However, the upside compared to Bohm is drastic. Mayo has the kind of power that could turn him into a 40+ home run threat and the adjusted left-field wall in Camden Yards only plays in his favor.
Verdict: Team build is a factor, but give me the upside of Mayo
The Veteran: Nolan Arenado, STL
Regression was expected for Nolan Arenado in 2024, but not quite to the levels that he saw. In his age 33 season, Arenado saw his home run total drop to his lowest mark since 2013. He also failed to eclipse 80 RBIs for the first time since 2014 with his lowest run total since that year as well. With Arenado turning 34 in April and the Cardinals retooling, there is the potential we see Arenado on a new team in 2025.
Dynasty managers need to figure out how much juice is left in Arenado’s bat. Is he a savvy buy-low option for those in win-now mode? Is the best of Arenado in the past? The good news is that Arenado still has elite contact skills. In 2024, he posted the lowest whiff rate of his career while also significantly lowering his chase rate on offspeed pitches. His hit tool is as good as ever with a line drive rate above 20% and a sweet spot rate of 35.9%. Arenado is still a productive offensive player and should continue batting for solid averages for the next few seasons.
The issue is that Arenado’s 30 home run days are likely behind him. Arenado posted the lowest exit velocity and barrel rate of his career in 2024. He specifically struggled on four-seam fastballs, seeing his slugging percentage against that pitch drop from .669 in 2023 to .399. His previous career-low against four-seamers was .457 back in 2021. Struggles with velocity are typically one of the first signs of decline for veteran players and that is exactly what we are seeing with Arenado. Arenado’s pull rate on fly balls also decreased significantly in 2024, causing more concern.
The expectations for Arenado in 2025 and beyond should certainly change from previous standards. However, that does not make him a bad asset for 2025. He is likely to continue batting in the middle of some team’s lineup, leading to strong RBI chances. His contact skills and line drive rate will provide a stable batting average, and his home runs should see some positive regression in the 20-ish range. Now, if you want to acquire Arenado, it is an all-in, win-now kind of move. In three seasons, he will be 37 and in the final season of his contract. His value will continue declining over the next three seasons, but he should be a reliable, albeit unexciting, asset for 2025 and maybe 2026.
The Up-and-Comer: Brady House, WAS
Brady House and Nolan Arenado ranking closely in Martin’s final rankings was a perfect way to end this article. Arenado, one of the great stalwarts of the third base position whose best offensive days are likely behind him. House, a consensus top-100 prospect who could debut with Washington as early as 2025. Team build is certainly at play here and impossible to ignore. In a total rebuild, House is the asset you want, but you do not need me to tell you that. However, let’s look at things in a vacuum. If you are somewhere in the middle is House really going to be worth selling low on Nolan Arenado for?
House was drafted 11th overall by Washington back in the 2021 draft. Originally a shortstop, House has moved over to third base and put together a solid 2024 season. Between Double-A and Triple-A, House hit a career-high 19 home runs. The issue is in House’s hit tool. House batted just .241 last season and struggled to make contact consistently. Contact skills have been a consistent red flag throughout House’s professional career and remain a primary concern when evaluating his future value. The concerns are with more than just his contact skills though. His approach is a major issue as he consistently expands the zone and has struggled to work walks. An aggressive approach with more contact skills rarely works at the Major League level.
With the risk comes the upside. House stands at 6’4″ and has incredible power upside. When he makes contact, he sprays the ball to all fields with strong line drive rates. He has easy opposite-field power and could tap into even more game pop if he starts pulling the ball more. He could be a .250 with 35 homers kind of player and will be handed the starting third base job in Washington sooner rather than later.
House’s approach concerns make it extremely likely he struggles in his first taste of Major League action. So, give 2025 to Arenado. Will House fix his approach issues, that is up to Washington’s player development team and is far from a guarantee. Arenado is likely to continue outproducing House in 2026 thanks to the safety that his hit tool provides. House’s upside is not outweighed by the red flags in his profile.
Verdict: Assuming not a total rebuild, Nolan Arenado