Earning His PineStripes

With all question marks surrounding Michael Pineda in March as we tried to decipher what kind of pitcher he would be, he sure has been fantastic and continued the narrative tonight with a...

With all question marks surrounding Michael Pineda in March as we tried to decipher what kind of pitcher he would be, he sure has been fantastic and continued the narrative tonight with a line of 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks against the Royals. In the preseason, the analysis was universal: his peripherals look great, but we can't trust that he'll be able to avoid the longball and his Fastball gets crushed way too often, as he's hittable inside the zone. What's crazy here is that Pineda still has a Home Run problem - 23.4% HR/FB on the year! - but he's carrying a 3.35 ERA regardless as everything else has been so good. He's showcasing a 10.23 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, and 27.8% hard contact entering Monday night's matchup. Now, the big change here is a BABIP that was above .330 for two straight years that has fallen to just .269, while his LOB rate is at 82.2% (compared to hovering around 70% in 2015/16). I don't expect him to keep those numbers down, which means that ERA would rise closer to his 4.09 FIP, but if the HR/FB rate drops as well a 3.50 ERA is possible. I'd certainly take that from Pineda with his K/BB numbers and I'd value him as such moving forward.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Unlock the full article
with PL Pro

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

5 responses to “Earning His PineStripes”

  1. Rob C says:

    What would be the outlook on Hoffman be if the day came where he was to remain in the rotation? Top 50? Just trying to get a sense of his value should that day come! Thanks Nick!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Considering that Gray was barely Top 50 when he was healthy, it’s tough to see Hoffman as the same.

      Coors really weighs pitchers down, making it more of a 50-70 situation for Hoffman even if he has the talent of a Top 50 guy.

  2. Tabernathy says:

    would you rather start chatwood tomorrow, lynn today against the dodgers (kershaw), or manaea on saturday against the yankees?

  3. Matt Nielsen says:

    Yo Nick! In the past, I’ve heard that looking at a team’s wOBA over the past 14-30 days can be a good tool for deciding who to stream against. Curious what your thoughts are on this. If you were to use it (or maybe you already do), would you put more weight on the last 2 weeks or last month?

    Thanks!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Account / Login