Long-time Pitcher List readers may remember that I wrote about Emmet Sheehan around the start of last season, just in time for him to go on IL for shoulder soreness and eventually need Tommy John surgery as well. He’s made his return this year and isn’t showing the same level of rust we’d usually expect from a pitcher who lost a year to elbow surgery recovery. Not only that, he somehow looks even better. In a year in which we’ve seen aces go under the knife and return looking like shells of their former selves, Sheehan is back, and his stuff is noticeably superior to what it was before he got hurt. Let’s break down the changes he’s made.
Modifying the Old to Make the New
The first change stands out immediately. His most-used pitch, an already strong fastball in 2023, has substantially improved. This new version is exceptional. The raise in arm slot led to what you would expect, a higher spin direction that causes more vertical movement, and he added an extra ~150 RPM of spin on top of that. The absurdly flat VAA is somewhat a result of how often he’s throwing this pitch high, as raw VAA is location-dependent, though it’s still worth noting. While it maintains the same HAVAA due to the higher release point, I like this version better due to the increased vertical movement, giving it both elite rise for his release along with the flat approach angle. The old one had good IVB for its release, but not compared to the current edition.
His slider is pretty similar to the old version, just a slight improvement on an already strong gyro breaker. Whenever you can raise your release point without losing any depth on a breaking ball, that’s nearly always a positive, as it creates a steeper angle for the pitch. This should theoretically lead to a few more whiffs and ground balls.
Remember a little bit ago when I said that the spin direction on his fastball went up because he raised his arm slot? That would normally apply to changeups as well. This would hurt the changeup as adding IVB causes the pitch to lose depth. Sheehan doesn’t have to worry about that, as this is a completely different pitch now. While I don’t know the exact grip he was using, probably something airbender-adjacent, it’s safe to assume he’s got something new, given that he halved the spin rate and it has a noticeably different active spin percentage. It now has some seam-shifted wake pushing its movement direction down the axis, which is why it has more depth despite a spin direction that’s higher on the axis. The result of the new grip is a truly monstrous offspeed pitch. While it lost a bit of velocity separation from the fastball, it shed IVB while raising the release point. It also jumped from an already excellent 11.3” of IVB separation from his 4-seam to an absurd 17.9”.
For a somewhat similar example, one of the big changes that led to Luke Weaver’s breakout as a premier reliever was increasing his fastball-changeup IVB separation by 6.0” from 2023 to 2024 by adding rise to the fastball and depth to the changeup. Additionally, Sheehan is maintaining his release just as well as he did previously. He’s not dropping his arm excessively to get this shape, which would take away from the pitch’s deception. Granted, in terms of how it looks out of his hand and how it moves, this isn’t the most deceptive changeup ever thrown. That’s not the point with this one, though. This is a changeup that is so nasty you don’t stand a chance against it, even if you recognize it out of his hand.
Lastly, he swapped his old sweeper for a curveball. Admittedly, I like the sweeper better. The rest of his arsenal is tailored for platoon matchups, which is what you would expect from a pronator like Sheehan. Even in the high 70s, a pitch with that much sweep was a great tool for beating righties. He didn’t use it much, but I liked it. Anyway, the new curve is fine in terms of stuff. It’s about what you would expect him to have given his fastball. He’s going for maximum movement at the expense of velocity with this one. It should be enough to steal some strikes, assuming he can zone it consistently. If he can avoid hanging it, it could warrant more usage, as slower curves have been coming back into vogue a bit recently.
A New Approach and Lack of Rust
Oftentimes, when a pitcher returns from a long absence, they tend to struggle with some aspects of the game. Be it their command or their stuff not bouncing back, there’s a reason we tend to wait for a pitcher to prove they’re back to normal before deciding they’re 100% again. Sheehan, however, is showing very few signs of all the time he missed. He started his rehab assignment this year, one day shy of 20 months since throwing his last pitch in a competitive game. Maybe the Dodgers’ having him ramp up for more than a month had something to do with the way he’s come back so strong. A quick fun note, he had a start with 6 perfect innings and 13 strikeouts on 73 pitches in AAA toward the end of it. Back on topic, Sheehan’s command doesn’t look any worse for wear; you could even argue he’s executing his game plan better than he was the last time we saw him.
Sheehan’s fastball lives at the top and above the zone, as it should. This is underselling just how consistently he’s been throwing it high, though. His 73.3% hiLoc% is 2nd only to George Kirby among pitchers who have thrown as many fastballs as Sheehan has in his abbreviated season to this point.
Not only is he repeatedly hitting the best location for his fastball, but he isn’t wasting pitches by sailing them either. His fastball waste zone percentage is only a hair above average despite his strategy of throwing above the zone more often than almost anyone. His chase rate is in the 60th percentile, and I’d imagine it goes up if he could clean up his misses to the glove side with it. I think those are left over from when his 4-seam had a very high amount of arm-side run, and he could sometimes land it on the glove side of the zone for called strikes. It’s also possible they’re just rolling off his fingers later than they should and getting yanked to that side. Scratching those from his pitch plots would likely help a bit.
His slider is running an exceptionally high 42.0% o-Sw% so far this year. It’s a bit funny to say that a slider that frequently finds itself high in the zone is well-located, but it tunnels well with his fastball up there. He’s consistently hitting the high glove side quadrant and areas just off of it. It hasn’t burned him much yet, and I don’t think it will unless he starts throwing his slider much more often. As it stands, the fastball bears most of the weight of the damage he allows, as high fastballs are always a bit volatile. Furthermore, he throws his fastball so often that hitters sit on it, which allows his other offerings to play up. I’ll be getting back to this line of thought a bit later on.
His changeup has been a bit of an enigma in the small sample so far. When it’s close enough to the zone, or in it, it’s excellent. Hitters can’t do anything with it if they get the bat on it at all. Unfortunately, it being a new pitch, his command of it is a bit lacking. Too often, it finds itself far away enough from the zone to never tempt a swing. Its chase rate isn’t abysmal or anything, but he could be doing better than the 36th percentile if he could sharpen up his locations with it. He could also stand to throw it low in the zone more often; it’s not like hitters are going to get under it anyway if they’re expecting high fastballs.
He hasn’t thrown enough curveballs to get a locations vs average chart for it, so you’ll have to take my word for it that he’s been all over the place with it. The league average zone rate it has is a mirage. This pitch has gone anywhere and everywhere, which is almost impressive in a kind of depressing way, considering he’s only thrown it 39 times. This one needs to be tightened up before it can really be considered useful.
What’s Next for Sheehan
He’s already made a lot of changes since we last saw him, but there’s always room for upgrades. Beyond the command improvement I’d hope to see from him as he gets more innings under his belt, I’d like to see a bit more arsenal realignment. He’s already eased back on the fastball usage a bit this season, but I want him to go a step further. It seems clear that hitters are sitting fastball when he’s out there because he throws so many, which would explain its good but not elite chase and whiff rates despite excellent pitch execution. I think he might find a good balance if he could pull back to 35-40% fastballs and fill the space with sliders and changeups. It would be enough of a decrease to either force hitters to think differently or suffer the consequences, while also not putting too much extra weight on his non-fastballs.
There’s a lot to like about what Sheehan is doing this year, even if there are plenty of things to work on. It’s worth remembering we’re talking about a pitcher with just 260 professional innings since being drafted. He doesn’t have much mileage on his arm; there’s plenty of time for him to sharpen things up. The fact that he already looks this good bodes well.
