The Holliday name is synonymous with baseball. Ethan was selected 3rd overall by the Colorado Rockies in this year’s draft, just two years after his brother Jackson went 1st overall to the Orioles. Both are following in the footsteps of their father, who played 15 seasons across multiple teams. While Ethan still has a long developmental journey ahead, his combination of athleticism and raw tools gives him a chance to be the best of the family. An impressive feat in one of the best baseball families we’ve seen.
Ethan Holliday: A Family Affair
Improving Hit Tool, With Elite Raw Power
On draft night, MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds said Ethan was more advanced entering professional baseball than Jackson was at the same time. While that analysis is probably inaccurate considering how quickly Jackson moved through the MiLB, it shows just how advanced many feel Ethan is coming out of Stillwater High. En route to the National Gatorade Player of the Year, Ethan hit .611 with 19 home runs and 64 RBI’s in just 33 games. It is fair to question the competition level, but for a player who’s best tool is power, it is a great sign for his developmental trajectory.
Ethan’s power has always been his calling card. Standing in at 6 foot 4, 210 lbs., he is built like a draftee who has spent 3 years in a college strength program. That strength has allowed him to showcase 80 grade raw power in batting practice. The inconsistencies in his hit tool, has made the in game power inconsistent, but it is impossible to watch him and not imagine how good he could be if everything clicks. Considering he is just 18 years old with plenty of development time ahead of him, he will have plenty of opportunities to slow the game down and start to be a more consistent all around hitter.
Contrary to what Harold Reynold said, Ethan will not move quicker through MiLB than Jackson, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be the better prospect when the time comes.
Perfect Match in Colorado
The Colorado Rockies, where hitters go to thrive. Every year it feels like the Rockies have breakout offensive players, even as they willow away at the bottom of the NL West. The reason for their offensive success is due to the friendly confines of Coors Field, which will play favorably into what Holliday does and doesn’t do well.
Holliday’s best skillset is his ability to hit the ball in the air. He possesses the prototypical beautiful left handed swing that is geared to naturally elevating the baseball. The thin Rocky Mountain air, combined with his raw strength, will allow him to tone down some of his movements, and still have the power to hit home runs. That should allow him to simplify his approach, and not feel like he has to chase power.
As a fantasy owner, the opportunity to have Holliday playing 81 games in Colorado should be a huge factor. Not only does the ball fly further, pitcher’s stuff does not move quiet as much. For a player with some swing and miss concerns (will discuss next), knowing he will play his home games where pitchers are not able to move the baseball as well should be a huge boost in value. Just based on being in Colorado, I have a significant amount more confidence that he will tap into his power potential, and not swing and miss as much as he has shown in the past.
Concerns Against Top Competition
If there is any knock on Holliday, it was his production during the showcase circuit entering his Senior year. There was a lot of swing and miss against high level pitching. He struggled with top end velocities, and quality breaking balls, and the reality is those questions were not answered this spring. While Holliday did produce at a high level, the competition in Oklahoma is no match to what he will be seeing in professional baseball.
The main think Holliday will have to focus on is simplifying his swing. When you are an elite athlete playing against lesser competition, you can get away with so much. Holliday was never exposed in high school baseball because the competition wasn’t good enough. No matter what his swing looked like, he was simply going to out athlete his competition, which would lead to a .600 batting average and almost 20 home runs. That won’t work in professional baseball.
The mechanics in Ethan’s swing is the main concern for me when comparing him to Jackson. Where Jackson has a picture perfect swing, and lacks the requisite strength to succeed, Ethan lives and dies off his raw strength. If he can take some of what Jackson does so well, and integrate it into his game, he will be better for it. Matt Holliday is one of the best hitting minds in the sport, so it is not for lack of knowledge, it just needs to be executed to allow his raw tools to reach their peak.
Conclusion
Holliday has the chance to be special, but it will most likely not be any time soon. While the Rockies have already promoted him to A ball, the swing and miss has already been an issue. In 8 games, he has struck out 14 times while only walking 4. It is excusable because he is still only 18, but it shows that the profile is not as advanced as his older brother. The ceiling is as high as any in the 2025 class, and if you are willing to be patient with some struggles, he could very well be worth the patience. But it will not be right away, and there will be plenty of bumps in the road to get there.
