Expansion Squared: How MLB Could Keep Growing

Take a moment and think about the game of baseball. Not any specific teams or players, but think about the ways in which the game will change and shift over the course of the next year, the next 5 years, even the next 10 years? How will it be different? What trends will emerge? Will we see complete pitcher dominance, and if so, how long before the pitcher’s mound is moved? Could we see 500-foot blasts on a routine basis or will bunting against the shift become a go-to strategy? All these are questions you could ask about the modern game and with all those questions comes a lot of uncertainty. Pair that uncertainty with the current MLB lockout surrounding one of the most contentious CBA negotiations in recent memory and a lot of what baseball looks like over the next decade is guesswork. There are few near certainties and, like it or not, expanded playoffs are on the horizon. Take a closer look along that horizon and you’ll see, if the player’s proposal becomes reality, league expansion is a near certainty too.

 

MLB Expansion: A Brief History

 

During the 1950s, MLB saw three of its “Classic Eight” franchises move cities: the Boston Braves moved to Milwaukee, the Brooklyn Dodgers headed west to Los Angeles, and the New York Giants followed to San Francisco. As cities around the U.S. continued to grow, the number of fans also grew and the expansion opportunities were ripe. As a result, MLB added 14 franchises over the course of 37 years:

2022 marks 24 years without any expansion, making MLB the least recent of the big four North American Sports to add an expansion team. The NBA and NFL have each expanded within that timeframe and the NHL has expanded four times. MLB has been around the longest of these four, so it makes sense they saw massive expansion in a previous era. With the NHL and NFL operating with 32 teams and the NBA possibly looking to expand in the coming years, there would likely be little resistance to league expansion. A pair of MLB expansion teams would bring the total number of teams up to 32 and end the longest expansion drought since the league first expanded outward in the 1960s. With a larger league, we might see divisional realignment, a larger playoff field, or possibly both.

 

What Might Expanded Playoffs Look Like?

 

We saw a 16-team playoff format for the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but don’t expect a playoff field that large anytime soon. It worked for the irregular 60-game season, but to adopt this format would discount the 162-game regular season by allowing half the field to make the playoffs. Owners and the league office would love the extra postseason television contracts, but this format rewards mediocrity, and it is doubtful we see such a large playoff field in ’22 or beyond.

Before negotiations broke down and the owners locked the players out in hopes of forcing a resolution, MLB proposed an increase from the current 10-team playoff format to a 14-team playoff format. Under this proposal, seven teams from each league would make the playoffs (three division winners and four wilds cards), with the team with the best record receiving a bye for the Wild Card round. The remaining two division winners would have the opportunity to select their opponent, while the other two Wild Card teams would face off against each other. The Wild Card round would be a best-of-three series played at one ballpark, before advancing to the League Divisional Series. The playoffs would then follow the previous format from the LDS and beyond.

Here is where things get interesting. The MLBPA’s proposal is for a 12-team format that includes divisional realignment. Instead of an East, Central, and West division in each league, it may look a little something like this: