Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Today’s title is a shoutout to Yu Darvish, who returned from the IL last week, and some words of encouragement for everyone down the stretch in their leagues! Keep the faith and trust your process.
Because not all teams have made it clear how their rotations will be set coming out of the break, I’ve truncated our charts to the next three weeks. We will be back to four in the next edition, which will come out in less than a week. Every team is in action today after being off for four days, so I didn’t bother noting “OFF” for today’s slate. For teams that hadn’t announced any starters as of Thursday night, I included their schedule charts with the pitcher’s names in the bullets below. I can do some prognosticating, but I don’t want to completely guess and mislead you all!
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on July 14, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. The most notable risers here are the Blue Jays (“Solid” to “Top”), Angels (“Solid” to “Top”), road Royals (“Solid” to “Top”), home Red Sox (“Weak” to “Solid”), and Rangers (“Poor” to “Average”). I’m not sure I buy the Royals all the way up there, even if it’s only in half their games. They’ve been a bad offense all season, though they have at least averaged over four runs per game in the month of July. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slide down a tier in the next update or two.
Among the fallers are the Dodgers (“Top” to “Solid”), Diamondbacks (“Top” to “Solid”), and Pirates (“Average” to “Poor”). This has to be the first time the Dodgers find themselves outside the top tier, but it makes sense given the Max Muncy injury and the massive slumps we’ve seen lately from Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Since July 4, they’ve only averaged 2.67 runs per game. And not to be harsh, but the downgrade feels right for the Pirates, whose team OPS (.639) is only one point better than the league-worst White Sox.
AL East
Orioles’ Expected Starters
Red Sox Expected Starters
Yankees’ Expected Starters
- This is the first rotation that lacks clarity coming out of the break. Max Fried had to leave his start early last weekend because of a blister, and at the time I am writing this, he hasn’t been confirmed as Friday’s starter. If he doesn’t get the start, just push everyone up a spot. He and Carlos Rodón remain auto-starts, but I would be careful with Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in these red matchups.
Rays’ Expected Starters
Blue Jays’ Expected Starters
AL Central
White Sox Expected Starters
Guardians’ Expected Starters
Tigers’ Expected Starters
Royals’ Expected Starters
- The schedule breaks most favorably for whoever starts Saturday’s game against the Marlins. KC’s rotation is currently composed of Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, Michael Wacha, and Kris Bubic with a vacant fifth spot because of a Michael Lorenzen injury. Am I the only one hoping the immortal Rich Hill gets the call?
Twins’ Expected Starters
- I would compare trying to figure out this rotation right now to putting together a puzzle while you’re missing half the pieces. We know that Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack are in it, as are David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson for the time being. But, Zebby Matthews was excellent in AAA on Sunday over four no-hit innings and could be ready to return this weekend or next. To add confusion, Bailey Ober is starting in AAA today and could also return next week! I would recommend stashing both but definitely not activating Ober until we see a good start or two from him. Whoever does end up taking the mound for the non-Dodgers series will be a worthy stream, with the Coors streams only good for wins leagues.
AL West
Astros’ Expected Starters
- It has not been confirmed that the Astros are going with a six-man rotation out of the break, so I am sticking to five here. With that being said, 13 games in 13 days tells me we will probably get at least one spot start from Ryan Gusto. Of the Walter/McCullers Jr./Gordon trio, I like Brandon Walter (40.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 23% K-BB%) the best from a skills perspective, and he has some upcoming matchups that make him a worthy streamer.
Angels’ Expected Starters
- Because they optioned Jack Kochanowicz just before the break, this unit is a man down and currently made up of José Soriano, Tyler Anderson, Yusei Kikuchi, and Kyle Hendricks. Whoever starts today will get the toughest schedule, having to face both the Mets and Phillies on the road.
Athletics‘ Expected Starters
- This is another unit that is a man down after the demotion of Mitch Spence. The four still up are JP Sears, Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and Jacob Lopez. It’s hard to trust anyone in this rotation, but I would feel OK about starting any of them but Severino against Cleveland.
Mariners’ Expected Starters
- It’s all gas, no brakes for the Mariners, who don’t have an off day until August 4. Unlike the two teams above them, they do have a complete rotation: Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Evans. Most Mariners starters have huge home-road splits, so I would think twice before starting someone like Castillo in a tough road matchup. Woo, Gilbert, and probably Kirby are auto-starts.
Rangers’ Expected Starters
NL East
Atlanta Expected Starters
- Atlanta will have two home series coming back from the break before hitting the road for awhile. They still don’t have five starting pitchers on their active roster and are now so depleted that Davis Daniel is the SP4.
Marlins’ Expected Starters
- We get the full assortment of colors with this slate! Eury Pérez (34 IP, 3.18 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 18.2% K-BB%) appears to be hitting his stride and is approaching auto-start status. Janson Junk (50.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 17.3% K-BB%) is on fire, and while I feel comfortable running him out there in mid-tier or deeper QS leagues, he’s not as appealing in wins leagues. Thanks to a 19.3% strikeout rate, the ceiling remains low even when he’s running hot.
Mets’ Expected Starters
- This is a pretty soft start for a beleaguered Mets rotation that is at least now mostly healthy. Sean Manaea made his season debut last weekend in a piggyback with Clay Holmes, and those two are joined in the rotation by David Peterson, Kodai Senga, and Frankie Montas. Whoever starts on Sunday will get a great draw for the rest of the month and into August. After the second Giants series, the Mets get the Guardians and Brewers, too!
Phillies’ Expected Starters
Nationals’ Expected Starters
- After optioning Shinnosuke Ogasawara, the Nats are left with a rotation of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, and Mitchell Parker. Despite the uneven results, I maintain that Soroka (67.1 IP, 5.35 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 19.3% K-BB%) will have some streamer intrigue down the stretch. K-BB% isn’t everything, but his borders on elite, and the WHIP is good too.
NL Central
Cubs’ Expected Starters
Reds’ Expected Starters
Brewers’ Expected Starters
- You just have to tip your cap to the Brewers, who went from having a sketchy rotation in April to a chock-full one by June. The unit composed of Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski, and Jose Quintana has been so good that they can’t find room for Chad Patrick and Logan Henderson, two other capable arms that would probably be starting on almost every other team. Whoever Milwaukee lines up to start on Monday will get a great two-step.
Pirates’ Expected Starters
- Mitch Keller’s hot run (4 ER and a 19:3 K:BB in his last 25 IP) will be put to the test next week in a challenging two-step. I am rolling with him in most QS formats but would be hesitant in wins leagues because the ceiling is pretty low. None of the Pirates three probable pitchers this weekend are tantalizing streams, but they’re decent options if you’re desperate.
Cardinals’ Expected Starters
- This schedule isn’t too bad for the Cardinals, who surprisingly find themselves just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, but it will be tough for their rotation. Sonny Gray (108 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 22.9% K-BB%) is an auto-start, making the only questionable one Matthew Liberatore (100.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 13.7% K-BB%). I think I’m going with him against Colorado, especially in wins leagues, but probably sitting against the Padres in most formats.
NL West
Diamondbacks’ Expected Starters
- While Arizona’s rotation might not look this way in a couple weeks with the trade deadline looming, it currently consists of Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, and Brandon Pfaadt. I’m hoping for Ryne Nelson to get the two-step next week, though the Houston game is a bit scary.
Rockies’ Expected Starters
Dodgers’ Expected Starters
- If I’ve learned one thing in doing this series for more than half a season, it’s that trying to predict Dodgers’ pitching is a fool’s errand. One thing I do feel comfortable speculating on is that they will go with a six-man rotation. In it will be Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the tandem of Shohei Ohtani and Emmet Sheehan. The sixth spot is open for when Blake Snell is ready, but that probably won’t be until August.
Padres’ Expected Starters
Giants’ Expected Starters
- Well, this certainly isn’t an ideal way to start the second half. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray remain auto-starts, but I’m keeping the other three guys on the bench if I can afford to. On the bright side, San Francisco gets six against the Pirates and Nationals following that second Mets series.
