The Grateful Tate
Brandon Nimmo (NYM): 2-4, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Shota Imanaga found Brandon Nimmo’s (2-4, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB) bat in the second inning with a first-pitch fastball on the outside corner that ended 379 feet over the ivy in left for his tenth of the season. Granted, the wind was blowing out at Wrigley. Still, Nimmo has been feelin’ it going 12-for-26 over his last six games. Arbitrary endpoints are fun, aren’t they? If you’re like me and prefer a longer sample size Nimmo has been equally impressive from 2022-24 (1,659 PA) with a .353 wOBA tied for 26th with Adley Rutschman.
He’s hitting .244 with a .783 OPS on the year, a little below his career marks of .274 and .823. But his PLV profile checks all the boxes that we like to see. He’s adding power (115; average is 100) while generally picking the right pitches to swing at (117 Decision Value). His contact ability is just about average at 99. His 115 in power is even better than last year’s 102 perhaps hinting that this recent run is closer to his true talent level than you might think. Simply put, the warm-hearted Wyoming native is hitting the stuffing out of the ball.
You could say this about several players but Nimmo has flown under the radar. It’s perhaps justified because he hasn’t stolen many bases or hit for big power; last year was his first season with over 20 home runs. And, yeah, his numbers against lefties aren’t great. Still, I think what we’ve seen over the past year plus is a player who has always had an exceptional eye and a career .823 OPS (although he forgot the count during his lone walk yesterday) leaning into more power. Sure, he’s 31 but that didn’t stop Yandy Díaz from peaking last year.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:
Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 2-2, HR, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.
That’s an impressive line even for Ohtani. The home run was a 455-foot blast (113.1 EV) to straightaway central off lefty reliever Matt Moore. According to Sarah Langs, he’s the only player to swat multiple home runs (last night was his third) at Dodger Stadium over 450 feet since the Statcast era began in 2015. And yet it was all for naught as the Dodgers lost to his former team 3-2.
Jeimer Candelario (CIN): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Both dingers came as a left-hander against the righty Kutter Crawford. Candelario’s second came in the third and was a legit big fly to right on a 91 mph heater at the top of the zone (410 feet, 104.5 EV). He’s hitting .244 with a .816 OPS and .350 wOBA more or less on par with what he did last season with the Nats and Cubbies (.251 with a .807 OPS and .346 wOBA).
Jake Cronenworth (SDP): 5-5, 2B, HR, 4 R, 2 RBI.
His first five-hit game. Yes, we’ve officially entered the Crone Zone. The solo home run, his 12th, came in the sixth on a hanging curve from Colin Rea and tied the game 2-2. He has one more RBI (59) than last year in 52 fewer games. The perfect night raised his slash to .266/.330/.464 almost identical to what he posted in 2021. He’s got a pretty solid PLV profile too with above-average contact (112) and power (107).
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): 3-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB.
He’s your leader in bWAR with 5.8 ahead of Aaron Judge (5.2) and Shohei Ohtani (4.3). The second home run, his 24th, was silly. He basically stuck his bat out and slashed a fastball on the outside corner from righty Nick Hernandez, hitting a low liner that just barely cleared the wall into the Crawford Boxes in left (350 feet, 102.8 EV). He’s been swinging at better pitches to hit as we’ve seen his decision value jump from 100 to 116, about a standard deviation above the league average. Look out!
Adley Rutschman went a perfect 5-for-5 pushing his OPS to .837, tops among qualified catchers; Will Smith is second at .829.
Tommy Pham (CHW): 2-4, HR, R, RBI, SB.
The White Sox lineup has been brutal outside of Andrew Vaughn lately. Still, Pham is certainly doing enough to justify a spot in more leagues (6% on Yahoo). His solo home run was a screamer down the left field line (369 feet, 112.4 EV) and the only scrap of offense the White Sox could muster against Jack Flaherty. He’s slashing .282/.353/.410 with a .339 wOBA through 173 PA, just a tick off his career mark of .340.
Austin Riley (ATL): 2-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB.
Yeah, that slow start is dust. His seventh came on a 96 mph 3-1 heater from Carlos Rodón on the outer half that he shoved 413 feet into the Yankee bullpen in left-center (105.6 EV). I have a sneaking suspicion his .744 OPS keeps on climbing. Ozzie Albies (6) and Matt Olson (12) also went yard much to Rodón’s dismay.
Luis García (WSN): 2-5, HR, R, 3 RBI, SB.
Would you believe it? Dakota Hudson pitched at Coors and runs were scored. García isn’t a game-changer by any means but he’s shown good contact ability (110 via PLV) while adding a little power (105). Add in ten steals and he’s certainly done Yeoman’s work as a solid MI in deeper leagues. He’s hitting .266 with a .694 OPS, just about identical to last season. Backup catcher Drew Millas also went yard in last night’s 11-5 Coors Field demolition.
Josh Lowe (TBR): 3-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
Both shots came against the right-hander Luis Ortiz. The second one was a three-run shot just to the left of center (401 feet, 103.2 EV) pushing the Rays ahead 7-2. Lowe’s contact ability has dropped a touch this season (91 via PLV; 100 last year) and his power is about the same (104). Lowe’s plate approach (83 Decision Value) remains rough, probably making him someone who will run into cold spells more than you’d like.
Hunter Goodman (COL): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Yes, it’s Coors, and the Rockies lineup is awful but Goodman could be worth eyeing. He hit seven homers with a .428 wOBA in 20 games at Triple-A and is adding a ton of power (121) in an albeit short sample size (43 BBE) in the bigs. Nolan Jones also went yard after missing two games due to illness. His second was a blast against left-hander DJ Herz (425 feet, 108.7 EV).
Joc Pederson (ARI): 2-4, HR, R, RBI, BB.
Pederson golfed a hanging curveball from Taijuan Walker into the seats in right-center for his tenth (404 feet, 103.3 EV). The former Dodger has been a one-man wrecking crew this year hitting .302 with a .935 OPS and we’ve seen his roster rates skyrocket lately. Similar to Ryan O’Hearn, Pederson isn’t going to play against LHP but his ability to mash RHP makes him a good bat to roster if you’ve got the roster flexibility.