The one thing I learned from starting this weekly series last week was that you guys really love you some points league content. Honestly, secret time, I love writing it for you guys too. In a world where roto leagues rule the industry, it’s time the points league community gets some love.
Last week I kind of lumped all the guys into short “Buy” and “Sell” categories. This week I’m going to be expanding on that a bit. In order for me to ensure that I’m covering as much as possible each week we’re going to turn this into a full buy/sell/hold article. Each week I’ll be covering a few guys I feel fall into each category to help you make better points league decisions moving forward.
Also, remember that this article is meant to encompass all levels of players. It’s not strictly a waiver wire piece. There will be plenty of guys who are very widely rostered in each category to help you make potential trade decisions as well. The goal is to do everything possible to help you dominate your points league week in and week out.
With that in mind, let’s get into it.
BUY
2024 Stats: .237 | 1 HR | 5 Runs | 3 RBI
Remember that second half of the season Casas had in 2o23? The one where he tore the cover off the ball hitting .317 with 15 home runs in just 54 games? If you’re the type to panic, that feels like a version of him that may no longer exist anymore. He started slow this season with just one hit in his first 17 trips to the plate. Since then, the old Casas has shown glimpses of himself racking up eight hits in the last six games.
The problem Casas has had is the lack of extra-base hits. The one thing that made Casas stand out as a later-round first base target was his ability to rack up not only home runs but doubles as well while limiting strikeouts. The fact that he hasn’t shown that yet is what makes him the perfect “buy” candidate. If there’s ever a time to get him for a discount, it’s right now.
The Red Sox play 16 of their next 22 games at home. Last season at Fenway, Casas hit .274 with an OPS of .890, 70 points higher than on the road. On the road just so happens to be where the Sox played all of their first 10 games this season. Casas will be fine and is likely to go on a pretty good run here in the coming weeks. Get him soon if you’re able.
2024 Stats: .313 | 1 HR | 7 Runs | 6 RBI
It honestly still somewhat surprises me that a super utility guy like Donovan has so much viability in fantasy baseball. That player arc is typically reserved for guys not good enough to really play every day but good enough to bounce around and see what happens. Little did we know, Donovan was going to turn into a guy whose bat is better than many may realize.
Let’s get one thing straight, by no means is Brendan Donovan an “exciting” baseball player or fantasy baseball asset. He’s your prototypical .280 hitter who’ll flirt with double-digit home runs, 25 doubles, steal a handful of bases, and just be a really good fundamentals guy. That’s exactly the type of guy you need on your fantasy roster. He strikes out less than 18% of the time, makes elite contact at 85.5%, and limits how often he chases out of the zone. He’s already used that to notch four doubles in his first nine games. Something we preach around here as something you need to be targeting.
He’s currently rostered in 43% of Yahoo leagues, 14% of ESPN leagues, and 82% of CBS leagues. I have a feeling the roster rate may be higher specifically in points leagues, but if he’s available he needs to be on your roster immediately. If he’s already rostered he’s worth putting a feeler out there to see what kind of trade bait you may have to sacrifice to get him on the squad. Either way, a healthy Brendan Donovan is maybe the most underrated points league asset in fantasy baseball.
SELL
2024 Stats: .294 | 1 HR | 10 Runs | 7 RBI
Joe is the prime example of why context matters in these small early-season sample sizes. The hype train came around, and it’s currently leaving the station. All because the Pirates started out the season on a historic run of facing lefty starters. The first five games of the season came against left-handers which led to Joe leading off. It also meant Joe was able to rack up some pretty great numbers.
If you added and started him this season, you’ve certainly reaped some rewards. In those five games, he drove in five, scored seven, and hit four doubles. This is nothing new for Joe, though. His career .757 OPS against lefties is just shy of 100 points higher than it is against right-handed hurlers. The problem is the fact that, in reality, the chances of facing left-handed pitchers that often isn’t something you or Joe can count on.
The Pirates do seem pretty set on Joe leading off against left-handers the rest of the way. That’s great and does still give him value. The problem is against right-handers he gets sat a decent amount of the time. He’s already sat two games this season because of a right-handed starter. When he’s not sitting, he gets pushed down the batting order. Joe isn’t a guy who’s going to hit you 20 home runs, drive in 100 runs, or score 100. He’s also not going to provide a decent batting average or strikeout rate. He’s the definition of a guy who’s good, but not quite good enough to help you all season. Right now, if you’re rostering him, try and trade him for whatever value you can while he still looks enticing to other managers.
2024 Stats: 2-0 | 11 Ks | 0.00 ERA | 0.47 WHIP
This is literally as good as it gets for any pitcher. He threw 14 hitless innings to start the season. Something Gerrit Cole, Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler, you, your grandpa, your best friend, his dad, or anybody else has ever done. He did it. And guess what…it’s not something you can expect to see from him or anyone else again.
Ronel Blanco No-Hit the Toronto Blue Jays!
In his 8th career start, Blanco utilized his 4 pitch mix to near perfection as he suppressed hard contact, leading to a 0.143 xwOBACON.
His Changeup graded out well and returned a fantastic 41.7 Whiff% and 61.1 Chase%
Congratulations! pic.twitter.com/ZY02qEgm6l
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 2, 2024
The biggest adjustment Blanco has made is he’s relied on his changeup more than he ever has in his career. After throwing it just 9.0% of the time in 2023, it has now become his second most-used pitch in 2024 at 32.8%. The reason for that is pretty obvious; it’s a really good pitch. Its PLV of 5.43 puts it in the 97th percentile in terms of changeups, and pairing that with a fastball that nobody can hit (14.3% ICR) means Blanco has molded himself into a pretty menacing pitcher. At least in terms of not being able to hit him. A big indicator of points league success is a good strikeout-minus-walk rate and that’s not something Blanco offers at just 9.7%.
The reason for Blanco being on the sell list isn’t because I think he’s a bad pitcher by any stretch. It’s because in order to be a successful fantasy baseball manager you need to be maximizing value wherever you can. There’s a 99.9% chance that if he’s on your team right now, it’s because you got him off the waiver wire. Which means it cost you essentially nothing to add him. With the most likely scenario being him trending back towards being a good, not great pitcher, trading him for a struggling star or to a team stacked with hitting in need of good pitching will likely benefit you the most.
HOLD
2024 Stats: .133 | 0 HR | 4 Runs | 2 RBI
It’s been a rough one this season for the Henry Davis truthers out there. Me included. There was and still is reason for hope, though. I understand that a lot of the hype for Davis came from spring training, which it shouldn’t, but he showed a lot of improvement in the areas you hoped. He was making great contact, his swing looked incredible, and he was finally flashing the power we all hoped we would one day see.
This is the part where I’m supposed to say “Something something something…small sample size” and just tell you that all the preseason analysis doesn’t get wiped out after 10 games. Which, honestly, is true. Despite the fact that it’s a small sample size, there are still reasons for optimism. Much of the current struggles come from the cold streak he’s on. When they happen in the early season it has a tendency to make the overall numbers look that much worse. In his first four games of the season, Davis looked great. Hitting two doubles, scoring three, and sporting a chase rate of just 14.8% while making contact on almost 81% of his pitches in the zone.
There’s greener pastures ahead for Davis, no matter how frustrated you may be with him right now. He made legitimate swing improvements this offseason which will take some time to settle in. And as a former number one overall pick it’s very likely he’s putting added pressure on himself to succeed which almost always leads to struggles. He’s only a few games away from adding catcher eligibility on many platforms and has legitimate 25 home run power at the position. Maybe don’t start him, but he’s too good to be dropped or moved on from. Give him a breather on the bench and wait until the good days come around (they will).
2024 Stats: .083 | 1 HR | 3 Runs | 2 RBI
Raise your hand if you took Lindor in the first couple of rounds and watching him hit .083 through his first nine games made you question your entire draft. I guarantee there’s more than one of you with your hand raised right now. It’s for good reason though, coming into this season Lindor felt like as safe a bet as you could make with an early-round pick. He just came off what may be the most overlooked 30/30 season in MLB history and everything pointed to him returning to that same level again this season.
There are two reasons why Lindor is in the hold category. First of all, you don’t give up on your early-round picks this quickly into the season. No matter how bad their struggles are. You drafted him for a reason and nine games worth of results shouldn’t sway your opinion so far that you’re already trying to move on. I do empathize if it led you to an 0-2 start, but I promise there are other moves that can be made that will end up being more beneficial than selling low on one of only four guys to go 30/30 last season.
The second is that looking deeper into Lindor’s stats you’ll see that many of them point to success in the very near future. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rates are both in line with his usual numbers. His 7.9% swinging strike rate is the lowest it has been in five seasons. He’s also making contact on pitches in the zone 93% of the time which is better than he ever has. The real problem comes from the fact he’s just hitting too many balls in the air.
| GB% | LD% | FB% | |
| 2022 | 43.1% | 17.9% | 39% |
| 2023 | 34.1% | 20.1% | 45.8% |
| 2024 | 35.5% | 12.9% | 51.6% |
Historically, Lindor isn’t someone who’s going to blow you away with their power. So he needed to rely on being a ground-ball and line-drive hitter who used his speed to his advantage. To see his fly-ball rate creep up yet again isn’t great, but for a guy with a career line drive rate of 20% it’s likely we’ll see that flyball number regress a bit and become more line drives which will in turn raise his BABIP and batting average. Line drives, specifically soft and medium contact line drives, are the number one contributor to a higher BABIP.
Lindor is still striking out just 14% of the time and walking at an almost double-digit rate. He went yard on Sunday for the first time while also hitting his first double of the season so things are looking up. Stay patient and Lindor will reward those who drafted him early sooner rather than later.
Week 2! Keep this info coming!!