Fernando Tatis Jr. first burst onto the scene way back in 2019. Was it really that long ago? I guess so. To come up and do reasonably well is already a struggle for most top prospects, as we’ve seen recently with Wyatt Langford last year. To come up and absolutely dominate right from the get-go in the same manner as Tatis Jr. did is almost unheard of. Elite players of today’s game, such as Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson, did incredibly well in their rookie campaigns, but also fell quite short of their current versions in a natural progression for most top prospects. Tatis Jr. set the bar so high early on that the numbers he put up following his return from a long-term injury and the PED suspension felt underwhelming to a large extent.
Here’s a guy who, by the way, didn’t miss any time in his first three years. Tatis Jr. came up in the middle of the 2019 season and slugged .596 between then and through the end of the 2021 campaign, easily the highest mark in the sport throughout that period, .026 points ahead of second place.
It speaks to the ability of Tatis Jr. that after missing 2022, he was underwhelming in his return despite hitting 25 homers and stealing 29 bases in 141 games. That was the case because of a dramatic decrease in his biggest calling card, boasting a .192 ISO, which to this day is a season low for him.
A year later, the power numbers remained underwhelming, but he still hit 21 homers in a little over 400 PA. The value went down further because Tatis Jr. stopped running as much as he did in the past, dealing with a stress fracture in his right femur, an injury he didn’t fully recover from even after his return.
The challenge of juggling adjusted expectations with potential
An issue everyone goes through in fantasy is trying to determine which will be the things we’ll focus on to drive our strategy when it comes to drafting certain players. A lot changes year-to-year, but for the most part, we know the good players, we know the bad players, and we know what a reasonable range of outcomes is for the majority of them.
Tatis showed tremendous ability in a sizable sum of games between 2019-21, but that was also a while back. While we can make excuses that one year he was hurt, the other he missed time due to a suspension, and if he’s healthy, he can run, when he wasn’t really and didn’t last year.
What I’ve found is that it’s easy to talk yourself into almost anything if you start the analysis from that mindset. But then again, you need to be flexible enough to allow yourself certain compromises and understand what you want to prioritize.
You didn’t come into the year necessarily believing Tatis Jr. is going to do what he did between 2019 and 2021. However, you understand that he has the ability to do that. Furthermore, even amidst all the injuries and suspensions he’s dealt with in recent campaigns, the 2023 and 2024 versions of Tatis Jr. showed more than enough quality to make you buy into the talent.
As Scott Chu noted in the Hitter List before the start of the season, Tatis Jr. was a top 35 player in 2023 even while missing more than 20 games. The biggest downfall in 2024, apart from more missed time, was the lack of steals, which has shown itself to be a one-time issue.
Now to the fun stuff
it’s very early in the year, but the signs of the best version of Tatis Jr. are all there, as he and Shohei Ohtani are the only two hitters who have at least five home runs and at least five stolen bases; Tatis Jr. has six of each. The Padres’ right fielder has been on fire at the start of 2025 and is one of the main reasons for the NL West-leading effort the Padres are putting up early on.
A few things stand out about the start to the season for Tatis Jr. chief among them is the significant improvement in contact rate inside the zone. Tatis Jr. currently sits at 86.0% in Z-CON%, which would easily be the highest mark in his career.
Tatis Jr. is making a lot of contact, and he hits the ball extremely hard. However small the sample size, it’s not very often you see a player underperforming his insane slugging percentage of .647 (Tatis Jr. has an xSLG of .676). It just speaks to the level of raw talent we’re talking about.
The strikeout numbers are way down, and although they might lower a bit from previous campaigns, the shift won’t be anywhere near as drastic. Tatis Jr. is swinging and missing out of the zone just as much as he did last year, but his 2-Str% is in the 98th percentile. This means Tatis Jr. just isn’t seeing the same number of two-strike pitches he normally does. In fact, nowhere near that. But you don’t really need to worry about Tatis Jr. maintaining such a low mark.
Potentially better team context
A big leaguer since 2019, Fernando Tatis Jr. has basically maintained roughly a 25+ SB pace in every one of those seasons, apart from last year. There were two issues in 2024, one was that he wasn’t fully healthy, and the other was that the Padres were right around league average in steals, not necessarily an aggressive team on the base paths.
It’s early, but as of entering play on Thursday, April 17, the Padres are in the top five of stolen bases, and Tatis Jr. is a big part of that. Nando has been manning the leadoff spot from day one, a position in which he has thrived with a career .983 OPS in 179 games as a leadoff hitter.
It’s not a game changer by any means, but batting leadoff also helps in the stolen base department. Consider that Tatis Jr. has 51 stolen base attempts in 179 games batting leadoff and just 55 in 273 games as a two-hole hitter.
Full package, little to worry about
Tatis Jr. has shown that even in his worst versions, this is a bat with easy 25+ homer power, and in 2025, he has brought back the aspect of his game that lacked the most in 2025, the speed. Combine those two things with a clean bill of health, and expectations are rightfully soaring through the roof about what this guy can do in 2025, as it all seems to be clicking for him once again.
There was that minor scare with the shoulder tweak, but he quieted things down with a couple of bombs in the following series. When it comes to Tatis Jr. the likeliest top concern is and will remain health. Skill set-wise, there is very little to doubt about this guy. Which is why we’ve seen his ADP remain so high year after year, killing any misguided notions you and I had of buying too low on him this past offseason.
