Getting To Know Julio

Alright, I think it’s time to talk about Julio Teheran in my best Julie Andrews voice after he went 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks last night. He now holds...

Alright, I think it’s time to talk about Julio Teheran in my best Julie Andrews voice after he went 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks last night. He now holds a 1.15 ERA, 7.62 K/9, and 2.08 BB/9 across his last six starts, which warrants some discussion.  It’s really hard not to see that as a Top 60 guy if not higher, but I’m going to tell you that it ain’t gonna last.  Sure, start Teheran as he’s hot, but even across these great starts he’s getting super lucky.  Despite holding a 10% career HR/FB rate, he’s allowed just 2.4% in those starts, resulting in a monstrous 4.10 xFIP.  Then he has a .252 BABIP despite near 30% hard contact and sub 20% soft contact, a 85.9% LOB rate, while having two great strikeout starts (9 and 8 Ks) mixed with four really mediocre ones (3, 3, 5, 5).  I will note that he hasn’t faced the softest of teams in this span and we could be looking at a decent guy through the year moving forward, I just won’t go nuts about it.  I don’t see a future Top 50 spot for Teheran, so plan accordingly.

Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:

Johnny Cueto – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks.  Okay, you guys know I’m turning around on my opinion of Cueto – he is Top 20 after all – though I can’t adjust it too much after this start given that it was played in San Diego.  Nevertheless, he’ll probably jump over Smyly come Monday.

Nathan Eovaldi – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks.  I’m trying to cherry pick stats to see if I can like Eovaldi more, but I’m finding it hard.  He hasn’t struck out more than six in his last five outings, his soft contact is just 16.1%, and while his xFIP is indeed 3.28 I still don’t believe in Eovaldi long term.  You certainly should keep starting Eovaldi if you own him, though I wouldn’t be dealing for him and if you get a good price to sell him, I’d take it. 

Jimmy Nelson – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I wish I could be more impressed with his 3.07 ERA, but it’s supported by a 4.40 SIERA as he’s walking 3.53 per 9.  The strikeout upside isn’t really there either with just a 7.06 K/9 and he’s struck out more than six just once all season.  Let’s just hope Jimmy stops slippin’.

Rich Hill – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Just in case you weren’t aware, Hill now holds a 10.68 K/9, a 2.54 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP through nine starts.  Why is he still in the 40s?! Well because his age is almost in the forties…I keeed but there is some concern that his age and lack of innings from previous seasons will wear down Hill well before 2016 is over.  Still, this is getting pretty ridiculous and he’ll get a bump on Monday.

Adam Wainwright – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks.  Oh, so you think we’re just going to ignore every other outing this year and take you back into our arms?  …Yes?  I want to so badly Waino, I just can’t do it even if this was against the Rockies.

Steven Wright – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks.  It’s just so difficult to put your eggs into the basket of a knuckleballer.  You never know if that basket is going to break suddenly.

R.A. Dickey – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks.  See?  This easily could have been Wright.  Don’t trust a knuckleballer.

David Price – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Aces gonna ace.  It wasn’t either extreme from Price and that’s perfectly fine with me.

John Lackey – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Lackey just keeps on rolling.  Weird having him Top 50 and possibly further but it’s hard to deny.

Gio Gonzalez – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Gio as well.  It’s a weird year for pitchers.  

Nick Tropeano – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Trop isn’t nearly the exciting pitcher I wanted him to be, but he can be a decent stream here and there.  Don’t trust him blindly as that 3.30 ERA masks a 4.78 FIP and 4.94 xFIP.

Justin Verlander – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks.  Sure, nothing gets me pumped like a double digit K performance, though the rest of the start is pretty bleghy.  Three walks?  A 3.68 ERA?  Whatever, I’ll take it. For what it’s worth, he does now have a 1.61 ERA and a 10.88 K/9 across his last three starts, but I’m not putting too much weight on that.  He could easily give you a 4 ER clunker next week so hold onto yer butts.

Chris Tillman – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks.  It’s not a blowup from Tillman, which is all I really want these days from the guy.  Just keep the not-horribly-bad outings at bay and that’ll leave room for the really good outings that surprise us all.

Drew Pomeranz – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. A 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a handful of Ks?  Sure, I’ll take it.

Jeremy Hellickson – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Oh no.  I really don’t like Hellickson for his inability to be consistent, but now I’m seeing a 9.06 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, and 3.54 xFIP (3.55 SIERA).  This hurts so much but I still have to say no.  He has a history of looking like a great add then blowing up in your face.  Does that make him a Cherry Bomb?  More like a Raspberry Nuke.  

Francisco Liriano – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Only two walks from Liriano is a major blessing, only four strikeouts is just wrong. WRONG!

Ian Kennedy – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. What is different about Kennedy this year from previous seasons? A .258 BABIP compared to a career .289 rate.  Now, his soft contact is much higher from 17.4% to 20.6%, though that 35.1% hard contact is still hanging around and not going anywhere.  I’m not buying long-term.

Chris Rusin – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks.  Rusin has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter not named Gray.  

Jake Odorizzi – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks.  Things aren’t looking great for Odorizzi right now.  It’s not terrible, per se, but I’m in no way excited about Rizzi right now.

Tom Koehler – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. Five walks and four strikeouts?  Tom, you’re making this too easy to say no.

Doug Fister – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks.  This doesn’t look like a Fister stat line.  Too many ER, too many baserunners, too many Ks.  It’s the Texas of Fister where everything is bigger.

Martin Perez – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks.  Is anyone excited about Perez?  Didn’t think so.

Mike Clevinger – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. It was the MLB Debut for Clevinger and he looked solid.  Not outstanding and there is room to improve, but solid. I wrote a GIF Breakdown about him in the wee hours of the night, so take a look if you want a better idea of the kid.

Brandon Finnegan – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks.  I watched Finnegan’s innings as I waited patiently for Clevinger to return to hill and I was impressed with what I saw.  His command was better and the stuff is all there of a Top 60 SP.  I’m not sold he’ll repeat and improve next time out, though.

Taijuan Walker – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Since I elevated Walker to Top 30, he’s allowed 7 ER and lasted just 10.2 innings.  Step up your game fella.

Edinson Volquez – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. And finally Volquez expresses that worrisome xFIP while maintaining a mediocre strikeout count.  Blegh.

Ricky Nolasco – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Nolasco got Singled Out pretty hard but I have more interest in stamps from 2015.  Really?  Of all the years, you chose 2015?  It’s the only stamps I own!

Bartolo Colon – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks.  Colon walked five batters last night.  It’s the apocalypse.

Shelby Miller – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Poor Shelby, he’s going to be referenced as one of the worst trades in history after Swansby has a wonderful career in Atlanta.

Mike Bolsinger – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Welcome back Bolsinger!  We’ve missed you as much as Christmas music in October.

Mat Latos – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks.  We get it Latos, you’re not tricking anybody anymore after that hot start.

Today’s Streamers

Jon Gray vs. St. Louis Cardinals – I can’t believe I’m actually endorsing a Colorado pitcher, but Gray has been excellent outside of Coors – and even once inside Coors – and he’s the best you’ve got, even if the Cards are hitting well.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Tyler Duffey vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Wood got moved to Saturday, and it was incredibly slim pickings.  If you need help entering the weekend, Duffey has the upside to turn your week around, but it’s a huge risk going against Toronto.  I wouldn’t make this start unless I was desperate, though it could pay solid dividends.  If this start does go well, by the way, you can bet Duffey won’t be available to stream for a long time.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer 

Alex Wood vs. San Diego Padres – Wood got pushed back a day for Bolsinger, which means he’s our DATS again.  Other options include J.A. Happ against the Twins if his owner dropped him after his last horrific effort, or Mike Fiers against Texas, though that’s not a stream I’d be thrilled about.

Game of the Day

Matt Harvey vs. Stephen Strasburg – Remember the days of the “Harvey’s Better!” chants?  Funny how these things work out.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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