Before the 2024 season, I released a series of six articles, one for each division, breaking down three pitchers from each division I believed could have a rebound season in 2024.
Two weeks ago, I released an article grading and analyzing my AL picks in these articles – for those that haven’t seen part one of this series, that article can be found here.
My articles released prior to the 2024 season discussing why I made these picks can also be found below:
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Compared to my AL picks, my NL picks were far more healthy, but also saw a wider variety in results, as the players considered were very unique from one another.
Once again I used a grading scale from “F” to “A+”; as there were no full seasons lost from injury, I avoided giving any “N/A” grades and incorporated a pitcher’s season length into their grade.
NL East
Aaron Nola
Grade: B
Aaron Nola had a great 2024 season, seeing his ERA drop a full run while his FIP stayed relatively the same. Nola also reached 33 starts, his sixth straight season of tossing at least 32 (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season).
The biggest factor contributing to his improved 2024 numbers could be attributed to positive regression – his stuff was similarly strong in 2023, although a few key differences, such as the Phillies’ improved defense, could contribute to his run prevention in 2024.
Still, not everything went right for Nola. He’s seen a steady decline in his K-BB% year-over-year, although 17.9% is still a great spot. Thankfully, his stuff looks as sharp as ever, with his CB in particular looking much closer to the shape that earned him Cy Young votes in 2022.
David Peterson
Grade: B+
David Peterson had the best year of his MLB career in 2024, firing 121.0 innings in 21 starts for the Mets while improving key parts of his game.
After missing the first couple months of the season recovering from a late-2023 hip surgery, Peterson immediately made an impact for the Mets, joining and staying in their rotation as they made a deep run through the NLCS, even pitching to a 2.92 ERA in the postseason both out of the bullpen and rotation.
Even with his excellent results, Peterson surprisingly didn’t see the kinds of changes I expected – his fastball velocity wasn’t up from 2023, and his Stuff+ wasn’t much better either (94, up from 90 in 2023).
Still, Peterson’s command of his sinker in particular stood out, as his Quality Pitch – Bad Pitch% (Q-BP%) improving drastically suggested Peterson largely succeeded at limiting damage with his most-used pitch. Peterson’s PLV jumping up to 5.02 also shows he was throwing better pitches in general, indicating he was getting more comfortable with his stuff and executing more frequently than ever before.
Chris Sale
Grade: A+
Chris Sale was the best pitcher in the NL and potentially MLB as a whole in 2024, bouncing back in a huge way to win his first career Cy Young award after finishing in the Top 5 six times in his career.
Sale was not only healthy in 2024 but extremely effective, as his stuff was superb despite not throwing as hard as he used to. Still, Sale was getting comparable results to back in the day, as his uniquely dominant strikeout-walk numbers ended much closer to prime Sale than they did in 2023.
The future Hall of Fame pitcher really could not have seen better results in 2024 – still, there are some warning flags for regression in the future. His 6.3 HR/FB% is unsustainably low and far different from the 11.2 HR/FB% he averaged from 2012 to 2018.
While this season was spectacular, it’s reasonable to expect some regression for Sale in 2025. Still, his monstrous 2024 season should be remembered for the number of injuries, mediocre performances, and other challenges Sale overcame over the past half of a decade to return to dominance.
NL Central
Roansy Contreras
Grade: D
Roansy Contreras had eerily similar seasons in 2023 and 2024 – both well below average, as his FIP sat above 5.00, yet 2024 saw Contreras largely in a relief role, making just three starts after starting 11 in 2023.
Contreras’ game still has lots of holes; decent stuff, poor command, and a limited arsenal of primarily four-seam/slider isn’t typically a formula for a great pitcher.
Still, there’s hope for Contreras – his slider developed well in 2024 while generating solid results, and his four-seam shape still shows promise. Another year out of the bullpen in 2025 could pay off for Contreras, although a lot remains to be seen.
Lance Lynn
Grade: B
After about as disastrous of a season as you can have happened in 2023, Lance Lynn bounced back in a big way for the Cardinals in 2024.
Some of his results could be related to positive regression – his HR/FB% drop would support this – but Lynn saw some real changes in his results as well. Lynn’s 21.3 K% and 24.1 Whiff% were his lowest since 2017 and 2018, respectively, and yet his average exit velocities stayed around average despite his stuff continuing to decline.
It’s tough to project Lynn’s future. While I wouldn’t expect too much, Lynn has shown the ability to adjust in 2024 as his stuff declined, and will likely continue to need to do so to stay in the majors for 2025 and beyond.
Hayden Wesneski
Grade: B-
Hayden Wesneski had a mixed bag of results in 2024, although one key thing stood out to me – he slightly improved in just about every way.
2023 was a season to forget for Wesneski – his 2.01 HR/9, 5.48 FIP, and 12.3 Barrel% were nearly unplayable, leading to a few trips to the minors, mechanical adjustments, and much more. In 2024, these numbers were still below average, but manageable.
This allowed Wesneski’s best traits, such as his 7.0 feet of extension, or his great sweeper/four-seam shapes, to limit hard contact and induce whiffs when he had to. Wesneski also raised his arm angle about 11 degrees, resulting in a GB% uptick across the board, although particularly in his four-seam; it was crushed in 2023 and became a much closer-to-average offering in 2024.
Wesneski still has certain things to work on, although he certainly has the bones of a great pitcher in the future.
NL West
Yu Darvish
Grade: B
Yu Darvish had a great 2024 season, playing about half a season while missing June through August from a variety of injuries and personal issues.
Totalling 81.2 innings in 16 starts, Darvish was able to keep his ERA in a great spot while further diversifying his massive pitch arsenal – he had five separate pitches with at least 14% usage!
Now 38, Darvish still has four years on his contract left and has seen his stuff decline in recent years. I don’t believe this will significantly impact his effectiveness, as Darvish has learned to adjust his arsenal more than any pitcher before him over the years, and I hope he will continue to pitch as long as his health allows him to.
Joe Mantiply
Grade: B-
Joe Mantiply was definitely an interesting pick for this list – now 33, the veteran reliever had a standout 2022 season for the Diamondbacks and saw some significant regression in 2023. Entering 2024 Mantiply was written off by most people, as he dealt with a mixed bag of injuries, and he thankfully bounced back well in 2024.
Reliever production is volatile by nature – especially in Mantiply’s case as a soft-tossing lefty, but his 2.51 FIP was certainly a good sign. This partially came from an uptick in strikeouts, yet he walked 7.4% of betters, way up from his elite 2.5 BB% in 2022. Instead, Mantiply’s FIP drop came from his sudden drop in home runs allowed – a 0.15 HR/9 is elite, but a 2.1 HR/FB% would indicate he got some good luck from these results; especially when you consider Mantiply had a 16.7 HR/FB% in 2022.
Still, many parts of Mantiply’s game looked great – his stuff was back to 2022 levels, he ran an elite 38.5 Chase% and continued to generate tons of ground balls and weak contact.
James Paxton
Grade: C
James Paxton unfortunately had a mediocre 2024 season, which will end up being his last in MLB, as Paxton retired at season’s end.
At 36, it would be difficult for Paxton to see his stuff get back to what it was at his prime, especially when you consider the countless injuries he’s endured in the past few seasons. Sadly, he posted a career-low 74 Stuff+, saw his FB drop to 93 mph on average, and failed to generate whiffs.
Aside from this, Paxton still had a relatively average season. A 4.40 ERA is solid, and while I wouldn’t expect this to be sustained if Paxton were to continue pitching, it was a respectable note to finish his underrated career as one of the most dominant starters in MLB in his prime.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)