Currently sitting at 42-72, the Colorado Rockies project to finish in last place in the National League West for the third consecutive season. While the team has not experienced much success since their last Postseason appearance in 2018, one bright spot that has emerged has been this season’s emergence of Brenton Doyle. Evaluated as a glove-first center fielder with a lacking hit tool that would minimize his ability to tap into his raw power in-game throughout his professional career, Doyle has made some adjustments to his offensive approach this season which has allowed him to increase his level of offensive production, and turn into one of the best center fielders in Major League Baseball this season (2.9 fWAR this season ranks fourth among qualified center fielders). This article will break down the changes that Doyle has made to his offensive approach this season, and attempt to identify if this increase in production will be sustainable moving forward.
Overview
Drafted by the Colorado Rockies in the 4th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Shepard University, Doyle has carried a reputation throughout his professional career as an excellent defender with a questionable offensive profile. As a prospect, FanGraphs graded Doyle’s defense as a 60 FV, his raw power as a 60 FV, and his hit tool graded as a 30 FV, indicating that he was likely not going to possess the necessary discipline and bat-to-ball ability to tap into his power in-game with consistency. These scouting grades corresponded with Doyle’s results in the Minor Leagues and his first Major League season, as he consistently ran strikeout rates north of 30%.
As shown by the table above, Doyle struggled offensively last season, producing a 43 wRC+ over 431 plate appearances with a 35% strikeout rate. While this level of offensive production is substantially below league average, Doyle produced 15 outs above average in center field which ranked 1st among qualified center fielders in all of Major League Baseball. Playing elite defense at a premium position allowed Doyle to still produce 0.5 fWAR last season despite lacklustre offensive production.
This season, Doyle has significantly improved his level of offensive production, increasing his wRC+ to 105, while drawing more walks and hitting for more power. Doyle also currently possesses a strikeout rate of 26.3%, which is the lowest strikeout rate of his entire professional career. Producing 9 outs above average in center field, Doyle still ranks among the best defensive center fielders in all of baseball, and the improved level of offensive production has allowed him to generate a 2.9 fWAR so far this season.
How has Doyle been able to increase his level of offensive production so quickly? Taking a look at his PLV and Process+ stats, Doyle’s offensive improvements can be attributed to his increased contact and power ability, which has resulted in his Process+ increasing from 78 to 104 so far this season. While many evaluators believed as a prospect that Doyle’s hit tool would prevent him from accessing his power and becoming an impact bat, it appears that he has been able to increase his contact ability this season, leading to more in-game power and a higher level of offensive production.
Stance Adjustment
Doyle has likely been able to improve his contact ability this season due to a slight adjustment to his batting stance. At the trade deadline last season, I wrote an article on my Substack about why I thought Doyle could be an ideal trade candidate for contending teams and why he struggled to make consistent contact at the plate. Given that Doyle has a weakness against making contact on pitches located up in the strike zone, I believed that the considerable downward hand movement in Doyle’s load was a likely contributor to his contact issues given the extra movement needed to make contact on these pitches.
Doyle made an adjustment to his batting stance this season, both starting with a flatter bat angle during his setup as well as a minimized downward hand movement during his load. These adjustments have likely reduced his reaction time needed to make contact on pitches up in the zone, while he is still able to utilize the athleticism in his lower body to drive pitches at the bottom of the zone.
As shown by the heat maps above, these adjustments have allowed Doyle to improve his ability to make contact against pitches located up in the zone. While this area of the zone can still be generally considered a weakness, it has become less of a hole that pitchers can easily exploit, allowing Doyle to see more pitches that he can make contact and subsequently hit for power.
As mentioned earlier, Doyle’s PLV Contact grade increased from 81 to 90 this season, which is likely due to the aforementioned changes to his batting stance and closing up the hole that he had on pitches located at the top of the zone. These changes are also reflected in more traditional metrics, as Doyle’s swinging strike rate has decreased from 17.5% to 13.6% and his zone contact rate has increased from 79% to 86.2%. While it is unlikely that Doyle will possess plus or even average bat-to-ball ability, these adjustments have provided him with enough contact skills that, when combined with his outstanding defensive ability, make him an impact player in center field.
Doyle has also shown an increased ability to hit for power this season. While some of this can be attributed to his more frequent rates of contact, Doyle has been producing more consistent hard contact this season, with his hard-hit rate increasing from 35.0% to 42.8%. This hard hit rate increase combined with his fly ball rate increasing from 34.7% to 40.5% has resulted in more barrels, with his barrel rate increasing from 8.7% to 11.0%. While biomechanical and year-to-year bat speed data is not publically available, perhaps the changes that Doyle made to his batting stance have allowed for his body to move more efficiently throughout his swing, resulting in more bat speed which contributes to the increase in hard hit rate.
Home/Away Splits
As with any player on the Colorado Rockies, it is important to analyze Doyle’s home and away splits to better understand how sustainable and “real” his current level of offensive production is. Due to the extreme altitude and environmental effects of Denver, Colorado, hitters are able to hit for more power due to the lower air density, and hitters strike out less due to the reduced movement profile of certain pitches, particularly four-seam fastballs. In addition, the large outfield dimensions of Coors Field allow for hitters to run high BABIPs, due to the extra area available in the outfield for batted balls to land. All of these factors add up to creating an extremely hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, and it is not surprising for Rockies players to produce extreme home/away splits over the course of a season.
As shown by the table above, Doyle is no stranger to extreme home/away splits, generating much more offensive production at home than on the road this season. Doyle has hit for more power in games at home (.240 home ISO vs. .171 away ISO), and the large outfield dimensions have allowed for more of his batted balls to drop for base hits (.398 home BABIP vs. .254 away BABIP). While it can be expected that he would generate more production at the elevated offensive environment of Coors Field, the .131 difference in wOBA between at home and on the road is quite large, even for a player on the Rockies.
The extreme differences in home and away wOBA make Doyle a potential candidate to experience some regression over the last two months of the season. While elevated BABIPs are common at Coors Field, Doyle’s .398 home BABIP is well above the ~.330 BABIP that hitters typically run at Coors Field. Given Doyle’s below-average PLV decision score of 97, perhaps focusing on improving his swing decisions could be a priority for Doyle moving forward, as he would be able to better mitigate batted ball regression with a higher walk rate which would provide him with a higher floor of offensive production.
Another notable difference between Doyle’s performance at home versus on the road is the fact that his strikeout rate has been 9.6% lower at home than it has been on the road. Since the altitude effects of Coors Field cause certain pitches (such as four-seam fastballs) to generate less movement, I am curious if this effect has allowed Doyle to strike out less at home by making more contact on pitches with suppressed movement profiles. While large home/away splits are common for Colorado Rockies hitters, Doyle’s overall level of production has been greatly influenced by his production at Coors Field, which may experience batted ball regression in the near future.
Concluding Thoughts
In conclusion, Brenton Doyle has shown significant improvement in his offensive production this season, transforming from a glove-first center fielder into one of the more valuable players at his position in all of Major League Baseball. The adjustments he has made to his offensive approach have allowed him to make more consistent contact and tap into his power more effectively, however, the sustainability of Doyle’s offensive improvement remains uncertain, particularly given his extreme home/away splits.
Given his outstanding Center Field defense, Doyle will likely be an impactful player for many years to come given the defensive value he provides at a premium position. If he is able to maintain his offensive improvements while continuing to provide elite Center Field defense, Doyle has the opportunity to turn a corner and become a foundational player in Colorado for the foreseeable future.
Photos by Icon Sports Wire and Adobe Stock | Adapted by Carlos Leano