Hayden Birdsong Might Be Exceptional

Conventional wisdom generally states that a good starting pitcher should have a strong fastball to build his arsenal around. Some pitchers have found ways around this by having fastballs that are unique, if not traditionally good. So what do you do when a pitcher has a fastball that isn’t either of those things? Normally the answer would be to convert him to relief and have him lead with his other pitches. However, when the pitcher in question has three secondary pitches that range from good to world-class, and can maintain mid-to-high-90s velocity over the course of a full start, you figure out how to make it work. Hayden Birdsong will likely never have that signature ace fastball. He’ll also likely never need it.

(Note: Birdsong’s metrics are slightly changed by having thrown 17.7% of his MLB pitches to date in Coors Field. I’m using data from his other starts, excluding that one. He’s not a Rockie, he’ll only pitch about two games there a year as a Giant, so what his pitches look like there isn’t going to matter as much. I removed them to get a better idea of what his stuff is like when it’s not subjected to extreme conditions he won’t see anywhere else.)

As previously stated, Birdsong’s fastball isn’t ideal. He has what is around league-average movement from a much higher-than-average release height. This gives the pitch a shape and approach that falls in between what would regularly miss bats and what would get weak contact. The good news is that he throws hard, which saves this fastball from being bad. It’s not great, but it can be protected by the rest of his arsenal.

Birdsong’s slider is awesome. A pure gyro bullet slider with power will work from any release. It is enhanced by the high release point it comes from though, as the downward angle it comes in at adds to its depth. This is a pitch that can work against anyone but will be especially effective against left-handed hitters. The unpredictability and lack of consistent movement create a very difficult pitch for hitters to pick up on. That’s why it’s running an above-average whiff rate even though he’s been throwing it down the middle too much. That’s a problem I imagine he’ll take care of soon enough though.

The changeup is the main reason why I’m writing this article at all. This is the pitch that caught my attention. As far as I’m aware this pitch is the first of its kind at the major league level. As was pointed out by Lance Brozdowski a week ago here, Birdsong throws this pitch with a spiked grip, an oddity for a changeup. While I can’t say for sure that it was invented there, Tread Athletics’ Leif Strom has been working on what he calls the “Kick Change” for quite a while now.

There’s a Twitter thread from Strom here that explains it in better depth if you want to know more, but the idea behind the pitch is that the grip will cause the changeup to leave the hand with a spin direction much lower down the axis than is possible with a more traditional grip. That spiked finger “kicks” the ball into it at release and creates incredible depth by unlocking movement that previously wasn’t feasible with anything other than an Airbender. Airbenders are a specialty pitch that can only be thrown by pitchers within a very specific range of movement biases. Anyone else who tries it will either have awful results or get hurt in the process. The kick change could theoretically work for just about anyone who puts the time in to learn how to command it.

The type of movement that can be attained with this grip is akin to a screwball without the fear of what it can do to the arm. Birdsong is throwing a changeup with negative IVB from a release point above 6 feet. That is an alien pitch shape. That doesn’t happen. Even the best IVB-killing splitters can’t reach that kind of depth from that release height. Birdsong does it consistently and makes it look easy.

The curveball is the least cool of his secondaries, but it’s nothing to scoff at either. A true downer of a pitch, his high release coupled with the near 12-6 shape create a curveball that seems almost impossible to get under. Hitting it in the air if it’s low in the zone or below it may not be doable with any consistency. It also tunnels well with his slider and fastball, creating a strong north-south mix, even if the fastball can’t stand alone.

The Changes To Be Made

As good as Birdsong is, and as much success as he’s seen at the major league level in his first month, there are certainly adjustments he should be making. Firstly, he throws his fastball too much. While his other pitches may see some decline in whiff rate with increased usage, they are vastly superior to his fastball and he should be using them more. His fastball is the pitch that will take the most damage from hitters. As much as it sets up his other pitches, it would probably be better for it to be sheltered by increased secondary usage.

As mentioned earlier, his slider command needs some refining. It’s not a pitch he needs to locate perfectly, I just want to see it down and more to the glove side more often. His chart is pretty scattered right now, and while unpredictability can work for a bit, he should eventually settle into a more optimized approach.

I’d like to see his curveball in the zone more often than it is currently. It’s running an excellent chase rate right now as he’s shown some aptitude for throwing it below the zone close enough to be enticing. I don’t think this is necessarily a called strike curve, but throwing it out of the zone too often could lead to issues eventually.

Please please please throw the changeup more. I do not care if he’s missed in the zone with it a bit. I do not care that hitters have had good luck when they’ve been able to put it in play. This pitch is a devastator lying in wait. From a stuff standpoint, it might be the best non-Devin Williams offspeed pitch in the sport right now. It’s that good. If he runs into issues with it getting hit hard on contact, I can live with this usage for the rest of this season provided he works on locating it more consistently this coming offseason and comes back next year throwing it far more often.

I wouldn’t mind seeing him add a sinker or a sweeper, something meant to get right-handed hitters out. His arsenal is nasty but it is very platoon-centric. Breaking balls with little horizontal movement and a changeup are generally better against opposite-handed hitters. While his changeup and slider are weapons that can probably work against anyone, it would be nice for him to have one more pitch to work with against same-handed hitters.

The Outlook

An arsenal of non-fastballs of this caliber is a rare thing. Even without a marquee fastball to fall back on, his other stuff is so overwhelming that he can still be successful. While at least some of his success to this point can be chalked up to bullying the Rockies twice, he’s shown me enough to be confident that he can work around his deficiencies. He’s already got excellent stuff. That’s likely enough to get by. When he fully optimizes that stuff, he’ll do much more than get by. Everything he has to offer could make him a massive problem for hitters in the future. There’s potential to dream on here even if he’s a bit unconventional. Don’t let his fastball scare you off, it’s pretty much the only thing about him that doesn’t scream future ace.