Identifying Potential Fits for Jazz Chisholm Jr.

With the July 30th trade deadline quickly approaching, Major League teams are making critical decisions about whether they should “buy” or “sell” at the deadline. Coming off a season in which they made the Postseason for only the fourth time in franchise history, the Miami Marlins quickly decided to become “sellers” after a historically slow start to the season once they traded Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres on May 4th.

Seen by many as the face of the franchise, Jazz Chisholm Jr. appears to be a likely candidate to be traded at this year’s trade deadline. Since a 2022 season in which he made an All-Star appearance and was placed on the cover of MLB The Show 23, Chisholm Jr. has consistently provided league-average offense and serviceable defense over the past two seasons and projects to be one of the top trade targets for teams looking to upgrade at either center field or second base. This article will dive deeper into Chisholm Jr.’s player profile and look at how Chisholm Jr. might fit into the lineup of his potential suitors.

 

Player Profile

 

Originally signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks as an international free agent in 2015, Jazz Chisholm Jr. quickly rose through the minor league ranks as a highly touted prospect. After being acquired by Miami in exchange for Zac Gallen, Chisholm Jr. became the Marlins’ top prospect by the end of the 2019 season. Known for his electric combination of power and speed, Chisholm made his Major League debut in 2020 at the age of 22.

Chisholm Jr. has lived up to his power and speed expectations throughout his Major League career, producing above-average offensive production and stolen bases over the past three seasons. In a 2022 season shortened to 60 games due to a stress fracture in his lower back, Chisholm Jr. displayed what his offensive ceiling could look like, producing a 136 wRC+, 14 home runs, and 12 stolen bases over 241 plate appearances for the Marlins. This performance, at just 24 years old, placed him among the top offensive second basemen in the league when healthy.

Initially a second baseman who could play the occasional shortstop when first called up to the Major Leagues, Chisholm Jr. moved to center field at the start of the 2023 season. This positional change was partially due to the Marlins’ acquisition of Luis Arraez, but it also speaks to Chisholm’s exceptional athleticism and positional versatility. Advanced defensive metrics have been mixed when it comes to evaluating Chisholm’s defensive production with outs above average indicating that he is a “passable” center field defender (4 OAA in 2023, 0 OAA in 2024), while defensive runs saved believe that his center field defense is below average (-9 DRS in 2023, -5 DRS in 2024). Regardless of defensive performance, this flexibility enhances his trade value, as potential suitors could envision him filling multiple roles based on the needs of their respective teams.

One area of concern in Chisholm Jr.’s offensive profile has been the declining power output he has displayed over the past two seasons, with his isolated power declining by .122 and his slugging percentage declining by .123 since his peak 2022 season. This decline in power output is the main driver behind his wRC+ decline from above-average to league-average.

As shown by the table above, Chisholm Jr. has seen declines in his hard hit rate and barrel rate since his career-best 2022 season. The decline in hard hit rate is particularly interesting, and I wonder if this decline can be attributed to the lingering effects of injuries that Chisholm Jr. has experienced over the past couple of seasons. This is another example of how Statcast’s bat speed data might become a valuable tool in analyzing hitters in the future, as a year-to-year decline in bat speed (potentially due to recurring injuries) can be an indicator that a given hitter can be expected to hit for less power in the future. Perhaps a new team could encourage Chisholm Jr. to utilize weighted bat training in order to improve his bat speed, which in turn should result in an increase in his hard hit rate.

Chisholm Jr. has also experienced a decline in pulled fly ball rate over the past few seasons, declining from 12% in 2022 to 8.3% so far this season. Pulling the ball in the air is an important ability to have to hit for power, as batted balls require a lower threshold of exit velocity in order to generate offensive production and outfield fences are shorter down the lines than to straightaway center (resulting in more home runs). If Chisholm Jr.’s decline in ability to hit the ball hard is “real” and not a phenomenon generated by a small sample size, then being able to increase his frequency of pulled fly balls is imperative for him to increase his power output in the future. Chisholm Jr.’s plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are still below to around league average (30.1% O-Swing, 47.0% Swing, 12.6% SwStr in 2024), and he has always been a player who can be expected to produce strikeout rates that are above league average.

While there are areas of his game that need refinement, particularly his power output, Chisholm Jr.’s overall skillset and remaining years of team control could command a nice trade return for the Marlins. For teams in need of a dynamic presence in second base or center field, Chisholm Jr. represents a unique opportunity to add a young, versatile player with All-Star upside.

 

Potential Destinations

 

A handful of teams have been connected as potential landing spots for Jazz Chisholm Jr. over the past week, particularly teams that could use an upgrade at either second base or center field in order to make a postseason push. The four teams that are most frequently connected to Chisholm Jr. are the New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, and Kansas City Royals.

The Yankees are the team is arguably the most mentioned landing spot for Chisholm Jr., and I believe they are the most likely to trade for him if the Marlins decide to move him before the deadline. After an excellent season in 2023 in which he produced a 123 wRC+, Gleyber Torres has struggled mightily to start the 2024 season (90 wRC+) and the team is likely to search for an upgrade at second base. In addition, the hamstring injury to Giancarlo Stanton has resulted in Trent Grisham starting in center field, and perhaps the Yankees would like to upgrade offensively in center by acquiring Chisholm Jr. Torres is also a free agent after the season, and acquiring Chisholm Jr. would give the Yankees a potential starting second baseman for at least the next two seasons.

The Pirates are another team that has been linked to Chisholm Jr., and it appears that he would likely be utilized in center field given the struggles that Jack Suwinski has experienced so far this season. Displaying an impressive combination of plate discipline and hard hit ability, Suwinski produced a 112 wRC+ last season for Pittsburgh and was on pace for a breakout season in 2024. Unfortunately for Suwinski, an increased tendency to hit the ball on the ground as well as a more aggressive approach at the plate has resulted in his offensive performance declining to a 68 wRC+ so far this season, which combined with a -7 outs above average is far from suitable production from a starting center fielder. Acquiring Chisholm Jr. and placing him in center field would improve their outfield defense and result in an offensive improvement in center field, which should give Pittsburgh a “boost” in their push to make their first Postseason appearance since 2015.

As I have written about before on Pitcher List, the Mariners have been a perplexing team this season, combining one of the league’s best pitching staffs with one of the worst offenses in the league. With franchise cornerstone Julio Rodríguez being the long-term solution in center field, Chisholm Jr. would likely start at second base for Seattle, replacing Jorge Polanco. Acquired from the Twins last offseason, Polanco has struggled in his first season with the Mariners, producing a 71 wRC+ so far this season.  Acquiring Chisholm Jr. could be a valuable addition to the Mariners’ lineup, however, the team has experienced significant difficulty in acquiring productive hitters over the past couple of seasons, with many hitters having difficulty hitting four-seam fastballs at home potentially due to the deceptive nature of T-Mobile Park’s batter’s eye. Could Chisholm Jr. experience the same issue and experience an increased strikeout rate and decreased offensive production upon acquisition by the Mariners?

One of the biggest “surprises” of the season, the Royals are another team that has been linked to Chisholm Jr., potentially as a replacement for Michael Massey and Adam Frazier at second base. Signed as a free agent after a solid season with Baltimore in 2023, Frazier has only produced a 63 wRC+ this season. I believe that Massey possesses some underrated power due to his tendency to pull the ball, however, his very aggressive approach at the plate (as evidenced by a 1.8% walk rate) has resulted in him producing a 99 wRC+ so far this season. Chisholm Jr. provides an offensive upgrade over both of Kansas City’s current second base options, and he and Bobby Witt Jr. would become one of the more exciting middle infield duos in all of Major League Baseball.

What would a trade package for Jazz Chisholm Jr. look like? At first glance, it appears that Chisholm Jr. would have a lot of trade value given that he plays a premium position (center field), is 26 years old, and has multiple years of team control remaining, however, Chisholm Jr.’s injury history will likely place a damper on his overall trade value. I would certainly be surprised if a top prospect such as Spencer Jones is a part of the Miami Marlins for Chisholm Jr., and I believe that a package similar to the one they received in exchange for Luis Arraez is a likely outcome for Miami.

As the trade deadline approaches, Jazz Chisholm Jr. remains one of the most intriguing players on the trade market. His combination of youth, positional flexibility, and tantalizing power-speed potential make him an attractive target for contending teams looking to bolster their lineups for a postseason push. Whether he lands with the Yankees, Pirates, Mariners, Royals, or another team, Chisholm Jr. has the potential to be a difference-maker down the stretch and in the future and is a fascinating player to keep an eye on in the years to come.