Even this late into the season, there are still surprises to be had, with Daniel Mengden being the latest following a CGSHO with 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks against the Tigers. I can see many running to wire right now to snag him before anyone else, but I'm not so sure that you should. First off, the Phils and Tigers are far from powerhouse offenses and Mengden is slated to face the Mariners and head to Arlington in his final two starts. Not great...and I know that face. That's a face of "Maybe the Mariners...?" I'm not loving it. The only change I'm seeing here from Mengden in these two outings in his Fastball, which returned 5.3 pVAL in these two starts alone. The velocity didn't change, the movement didn't change, he just had two great nights with the pitch while the Phils/Tigers couldn't take advantage of the mistakes he threw with it. This isn't a new man and while it's conceivable that he keeps that feel for one more start against the Mariners, it's a tough bet to make while there's no chance I'm starting him in Texas. And no, he won't be a target of mine for 2018.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
What are your thoughts on Jordan Montgomery Sunday against the Jays?
Lots of streaming options on Sunday, but I think The Bear (JorMont) will be the streaming pick.
So the Padres have roughed up 3 straight starting pitchers (2 of which are lefties like Tyler Anderson) that are certainly better pitchers than Anderson. How confidently should we be starting Anderson tonight? He has a nice GB% but apparently his velocity was down a bit in his last start. Any extra thoughts? Also, any confidence in rolling Adelberto Mejia out against the Tigers? Thanks!
I don’t like Mejia at all and I think that’s too small of a sample for me to reconsider labeling Anderson as the streaming option tonight.
It’s possible the Padres keep going, though I still don’t see a better streaming option for the day, Mejia included.
Thanks Nick. Love your content.
Thanks Rob!
Rolling with Paxton today? I heard Servais said his issues last Friday were mechanical, not health-related.
They were last time too after he came off the DL the first time. Took about 3 starts to fix it
I’m not. Still concerned he’ll be limited pitch count wise and I want one more start before letting him loose after last week’s red flag.
I really like everything that you do on this site – and tend to agree with most of your opinions… but opinions are just that and can be wrong from time to time. With that being said, I really enjoy logging in to see you stick to your gun about Jose Urena – no matter how good the guy pitches. He is one guy that i am glad I did not follow your advice on. Maybe his peripherals suggest regression, but you can’t deny that a 14-6 record and a 3.55 ERA is usable in pretty much any fantasy format.
There’s no maybe about it, his peripherals SCREAM regression. For example his .243 BABIP which is 3rd lowest in the majors. Also there’s the fact that his FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA are all over 5.
I would think about it less in terms of “the author’s opinion was wrong” and more in terms of “Urena’s performance this year fell on the outlying edge of the bell curve of possible outcomes.” The author’s analysis is absolutely sound. As they say, “That’s Baseball”.
At the point where the season is over and you had Urena for free, the underlying data doesn’t mean much. There were some owners that didn’t touch Lynn or Ervin Santana because of the screaming data – those owners missed out in 2017 and those guys would have greatly helped any staff as your #4 and #5 starters unless you play in a K only league with 4 teams. To be clear, I won’t be drafting them as my #1 next year, but I will be happy to add them to the back of my rotation.
I don’t know if I will ever understand the elitism that accompanies the advanced metrics. IMO, I give half weight to the advanced stats and half weight to reality. I find it crazy how much people want to discount reality. The ERA indicators are often nowhere near convergence, but we still regard them as valuable? ERA is valuable too, but WHIP is still my favorite tool as it is based on real events that actually happened as opposed to some convoluted formula that gives arbitrary weights to select outcomes.
A 3.55 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 5.10 SIERA, .243 BABIP, 6.03 K/9, 3.16 BB/9…
I mean, yeah it’s worked out for Urena. Baseball isn’t a definite thing. Everything points to him being someone you don’t want to own on your team and he’s be an anomaly.
I think it would be a lot worse if I told you guys he was someone you wanted to own despite everything glaring in our face.
But fair, I can’t deny that he has performed better than expected. So it goes.
I don’t think there is a content author that doesn’t get a bit stubborn about things. That being said, I think Nick does about as good a job as possible to keep things objective. If you want to dismiss something, then go ahead and do it, but gloating about it is doing the same thing that you are trying to point out. I agree with you that advanced metrics (peripherals) do miss their mark frequently.
How you feeling now about Garrett Richard’s start for tomorrow’s game against the Astros. It’s a big game for the Angels and I have a feeling that Richards might have to bring his best stuff… Is his best stuff good enough…..stream him or not?
I think in a 12 teamer looking for starts, it’s not the worst option, but I’m leaning that it won’t go well. He was limited once again pitch count wise last time out and I’m not sure that won’t happen again.
I started Corbin, Godley and Ray against the Padres while fighting for 1st place…yup, that went well…
cry
Ouch. I feel your pain.
Safe to drop Nola because he’s starting Monday, not Sunday? One week fantasy championship this week. Redraft league. Looking for confirmation of Monday start. Thanks, Nick (President of the Aaron Nola Fan Club).
I’d wait until the last moment, but yes it looks like he’s slated for a start on Monday.
Why not Ryu vs SFO for Saturday’s streamer?
He’s owned in 37%+ leagues, making him ineligible.
I’d roll with him if you can!
I can’t decide whether to go all in with Lopez as my last pick up or replace Britton with Hand…injuries to inciarte, seager, britton have made the score a lot closer than it should be thanks to your streamer advice…what are your thoughts on 4 potential saves from Hand in Colorado versus one start from Reynaldo Lopez when ks are paramount to points?
I guess the other option would be brach in tampa or belisle playing for the wild card in detroit…beauty call on Salazar btw, my opponent picked him up and is gonna be kicking himself despite picking up 4ks.
I think I’d prefer to go after Lopez, since he has a higher floor to give you some points.
Who’s the best streamer option, J Mont, Woodruff, Chacin or Pivetta? Only one transaction left this week.
JorMont!
Nick how would you rank the following streams for the rest of this week? Thanks!
Gibson @ Detroit (Daniel Norris)
Morton vs Angels (Bud Norris)
McHugh vs Angels (Skaggs)
Montgomery @ TOR (Stroman)
I’d go…
Mchugh > Morton > JorMont > Gibson
I’ve got ONE pickup left for the season (championship!). Who would you go with?
Chacin vs COL
Gohara vs PHI
Fister @ CIN
Ryu vs SF
Perdomo vs COL
Ryu!
Good luck!
Thanks! Love your content.