Let’s get right into it this week, with two players who are having fantastic second-half stretches.
Rafael Devers, 1B, BOS
Remember when people were worried about Devers? Like, seriously worried. He was even featured in an April edition of Patience or Panic, and honestly, everything said there feels accurate. He was a different player, one who was struggling with virtually everything. While Devers has been a questionable defender his entire career, there was controversy surrounding his role in Boston; nobody has ever doubted his hitting ability.
Devers has been absolutely on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .276/.378/.595, which is good for a wRC+ of 163. So far in September, that wRC+ mark is 283, which is the second-best among all qualified hitters in the month, only behind the electric Elly De La Cruz. Devers also has the third-highest WAR in the month, tied with Carter Jensen at 0.9. Devers is absolutely crushing baseballs, leading the month (tied with Elly) in home runs with five. It all stems from the fact that he has the right balance of tools to succeed. He has pop, we all know that, and it’s allowed him to hit home runs at a great place despite playing in San Francisco, which is a nightmare for power hitters. They didn’t have a 30-home-run hitter for years, and now Devers is doing it in back-to-back campaigns. While power is his biggest strength, his contact and discipline skills are also solid, which allows him to produce at these levels.
Rafael Devers’s Process+ visualized
Verdict: Legit. It’s Devers, a player we have never really questioned being good at hitting. He’s super effective in real life and fantasy, it’s just unfortunately more of a headline this season because of how rough a start he got off to. The San Francisco Giants are very bad, which makes his contributions seem somewhat meaningless, and it does hurt him overall in the runs and RBIs categories. Still, though, he’s one of the very best hitters in the business and it’s been great to see him transition to a difficult ballpark with overall relative ease.
Jesus Luzardo, SP, PHI
Luzardo was covered in one of these articles just under a month and a half ago, yet even at that point I don’t think we were ready for how good he would be down the stretch. The Cy Young race seems to be close to concluded, considering how legendary Jacob Misiorowski has been, and if someone were to usurp the title, it would be Chris Sale, who has basically put up the same campaign that won him the award two seasons ago.
Still, Luzardo has had a campaign that really is Cy Young-esque. He has an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.08, which are excellent numbers, as well as his best marks in years. A lot of this is driven by his impressive strikeout and walk rates, as his K% is the highest it’s been in a full season ever, and his walk rate is the lowest it’s been since 2020. He’s often been a player who can struggle to throw strikes, and while the rates could be higher on his pitches, he doesn’t have a walk problem this year. One of the funniest things about this campaign is that he had some really ugly games early in the season, ones in which he looked better than the statline but the earned run totals sank plenty of fantasy teams (and the Phillies themselves). It’s pretty impressive that he has Cy Young-caliber numbers after so many stinkers, but his second half has just been that good.
Luzardo’s sweeper is absurd. It’s one of the best pitches in baseball this season. It has a total run value of 23 this season, which is pretty impressive for a sweeper. It’s his primary pitch in terms of usage for the first time in his career, and despite seeing it often, hitters still have no idea what to do with it. The sweeper has a batting average against of .112, which is really derived from his ability to get whiffs and called strikes with it. Batters do not make contact often with the pitch, as it often lands way outside for hitters, yet they still feel the urge to chase it. He throws it nearly 50% of the time against lefties, and yet has an even higher whiff rate and CSW rate than against righties, largely because they simply can’t hit the pitch. Luzardo rounds out his arsenal with a sinker and four-seamer, which, while both are high velocity, have shapes that aren’t too impressive, and the classic lefty changeup that gets whiffs against right-handed hitters.
Jesus Luzardo’s Pitching Arsenal visualized
Verdict: Legit. Yeah, Luzardo is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the data backs it up. There’s always a bit of needed caution with pitchers like Luzardo, who can go in and out of their groove now and then. Still, Luzardo shook off the early inconsistency and, from there, looked like an undisputed ace, proving himself to be perhaps THE best pitcher on a stacked Phillies staff.
