Alright everybody, it’s the final push of the baseball season. Here are two players who have been scorching hot lately and may or may not be legit. Enjoy, as always, everybody.
Jackson Merrill, OF
Merrill had a bit of a rough start to the season. So did the other core members of the Padres. I mean, how many social media posts did we see about Fernando Tatis Jr. not having a home run in the opening months of his campaign despite having one of the highest hard-hit rates in Major League Baseball? Manny Machado also struggled, and Xander Bogaerts certainly wants to forget this season. However, Merrill also went through trials and tribulations, which you wouldn’t necessarily expect when watching him in the last few months. In the first half of the season, he had a wRC+ of 76. Since the All-Star break, that number is up to 157, including a mark of 193 in September.
Merrill has incredible potential when it comes to getting extra-base hits. He smokes the ball with above-average bat speed that produces solid exit velocities, all while keeping the ball in the air. He’s also pulling the ball in the air a bit more this season, which is a factor that his career-high in home runs (with 25) this season can perhaps be attributed to. He makes great quality contact, and that is something we’ve seen from him relatively consistently. As of late, though, he’s been on another level with it, which you can see in his Process+ chart below. The power is definitely there. Another area that he has set a career high in is stolen bases. He has 26 now, and his previous high was only 16. It’s a shame that he has his lowest on-base percentage of any of his seasons this year, as that number could be much higher. Still, it’s great for his real-life and fantasy value that he’s a more aggressive baserunner, as it’s also conducive to more extra-base hits.
One thing that’s interesting about Merrill is how his profile has changed a lot since his Rookie of the Year runner-up campaign. He was mostly a contact-focused hitter who rarely struck out and didn’t whiff often. Since then, his strikeout rates have increased quite a bit. Last year it was 10% higher at 27%, while this season it’s around 24%. It’s kind of a mixed bag of results, as while, by the numbers, his season with the lower K rate is his best, the quality of contact improvement this season is not negligible. If we could get a balance
Jackson Merrill’s Process+ visualized
Verdict: Mostly Legit. I’ve always been a bit of the low man on Merrill, largely due to him having lower walk rates than what would probably be expected from a player with his profile. Still, he’s making better contact than ever, and it’s resulting in an excellent second half. I’m feeling more in on him for 2027 now. Perhaps it’ll be the real breakout where he puts up a top-20 caliber season.
Victor Mesa Jr., OF, TBR
It’s time for Mesa madness. The Rays have had a bit of a reputation for being a top-heavy team, with Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and recently acquired Liam Hicks carrying most of the load. However, the Rays may have a fifth major bat in the lineup, and it has gone rather under the radar, apart from winning AL Player of the Week last week.
Victor Mesa Jr. has a solid combination of tools that have allowed him to put up a 126 wRC+. While strikeouts seemed to be a concern when he was first called up by the Rays, he’s really curbed that issue, with a K rate below 20%. Mesa’s biggest strength is his power, which is really good. He has great bat speed, which has allowed him to tally 13 home runs this season. While that’s not an impressive number, that’s because he’s only played 70 games. It’s a 30-home-run pace across a full season, and that feels doable for Mesa when you consider that he only had 38 MLB plate appearances before getting brought into the fold with the Rays. Mesa also is decently disciplined, as he had a stretch in the middle of the season where he was consistently taking walks, though he’s gotten more aggressive in this hot streak and has focused on taking big hacks instead of drawing out at-bats and taking close pitches. It’s working, though, as he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball, period, this September.
When you think of it, there is actually a decent amount of similarities between Mesa and Merrill. Both have great quality of contact skills with excellent speed. They are also both great in the field with impressive arm strength, though that doesn’t count for much in fantasy unless you are in a league with defensive categories. Mesa is more of an unknown as of now, and that leads people to treat him with caution, justifiably so. However, there is quite a bit to like about his profile, and those who have picked him up for their fantasy squads in September are certainly happy with what he’s brought.
Victor Mesa Jr.’s Process+ visualized
Verdict: Possibly Legit. It’s a bit of a small sample size, and Mesa doesn’t always get pencilled in the lineup against lefties, but he’s showcasing a solid combination of skills that will, at the very least, make him a productive outfielder who may be picked up at the very back of fantasy drafts next season.
