The 2025 season has just begun! Unfortunately, most statistics haven’t even begun to stabilize yet. For example, it seems unlikely that Eugenio Suárez and Aaron Judge are going to hit 200 HR. However, there are some numbers that stabilize fairly quickly, so we’ll try to focus on those numbers.
Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
In Abreu’s first two MLB seasons, he had about a 120 wRC+ in 532 PA. However, that has come with a 28% K%. Throughout the minors, he’s posted similar K numbers. If he could drop that down into the low-mid 20s, he’d become one of the better offensive OFs in the American League.
In 15 PA thus far, he has yet to strike out. He’s also dropped his Swinging Strike% from 14.2% to 8.2% and his O-Swing% from about 27% to 13.8%. However, in 21 PA this Spring Training, his K% and Swinging Strike% were in line with his career norms.
Verdict: Possibly Legit. It is way too early to make any judgments about Abreu’s future K%. Even if his K% does not improve, he has proven to be an above-average hitter and is available in 40% of Yahoo leagues. I recommend monitoring his next handful of games. If he continues to show improved plate discipline, you should get more aggressive in rostering him.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B/DH, Cleveland Guardians
Making his MLB debut in 2024, Manzardo posted a 98 wRC+ in 156 PA. Certainly not a bad start to a career, but his numbers were limited by a 26.3% K%. His K%’s in the minors were in the mid-upper teens, so expecting an improvement to about 20% is reasonable.
In 14 PA thus far in 2025, his K% is 14.3%. He’s also dropped his O-Swing% from 29.3% to 18.5%, while his Swinging Strike% has basically remained the same.
Verdict: Too early to tell. While his K% has improved in the regular season, in Spring Training, it was 32%. Until he gets more PA under his belt, I recommend deferring to his projections, which expect about a 22% K%. If that happens, he’ll definitely be worth rostering in more than the 37% of Yahoo leagues he is currently rostered in.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Arenado is different than the guys that usually appear in Is it Legit. Once a strong hitter, he is now viewed as a 33-year-old veteran on the decline. His last two years were his worst full seasons since he was a rookie in 2013. Still, he’ll be 34 in two weeks (not ancient in my book), and he was slightly above average in 2023-2024.
His bat speed was seemingly in decline. It was about league average in 2023-2024. However, in Spring Training this year, there was evidence he had improved his bat speed. His early-season bat-tracking numbers support this improvement. Not only is his Average Bat Speed above average, but his Fast Swing Rate has skyrocketed to 69%. The league average Fast Swing Rate is just 22.8%. Per Baseball Savant, “A player’s “fast-swing rate” is simply showing the percentage of all of his swings that did reach 75 MPH.” At the time Savant wrote that guide page, Fast Swings resulted in a .307 BA, .603 SLG, and .389 wOBA.
Verdict: Legit. Arenado has only had 13 PA, but he has a 304 wRC+. I wouldn’t expect him to return to his prime in Colorado when he was posting 130 WRC+ seasons, but you might be able to trade a middling player to acquire a resurgent above-average 3B.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
