We are nearly four full weeks into baseball season, and as usual, there are plenty of unexpected breakouts. While we learn more information and gain new data to analyze with each passing day, it’s still way too early to take things at face value. Hot streaks are common for players of all different skill levels, and we’re still early enough in the year that one or two weeks of good production can completely change a player’s season-long stat line.
That’s why it’s important to differentiate hot starts that show real signs of a permanent breakout from fluky stretches that everyone will forget about by this time next month. In this piece, I’ll take a look at two hitters and one pitcher who have been exceptional as of late and determine whether or not they are likely to keep it up.
Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B, CHW
Munataka Murakami was one of the most polarizing players this offseason. Some believed he was destined to become one of the next great major league sluggers with a real shot at 40 home runs, while others thought he was a lock for a 40% strikeout rate and sub .200 batting average that would make him unusable for fantasy. It was easy to understand the optimistic perspective, as this is a 26-year-old who hit 56 home runs in a season in 2022 in Japan. On the other hand, he struck out at a 28.6%% clip last year against NPB pitching, and serious MLB contenders clearly were not lining up to sign him. He signed just a 2-year, $34 million contract with the White Sox, which showed that there were some serious concerns about his transition to the states.
However, at least so far, he is proving those doubters wrong, with homers in three straight games heading into Tuesday. On the season, he is slashing .208/.376/.542 with 16 runs, eight home runs, and 16 RBI through 22 games. The batting average is low, as expected, but that doesn’t matter too much for someone who’s on pace to hit 58 home runs. Especially in points leagues or OBP leagues, his excellent 21.5% walk rate and .376 on-base percentage make him an asset in that regard. The strikeout rate sits at 33.3%, which is bad but manageable for a player with such extreme raw power.
The biggest concerns for Murakami were his ability to hit higher velocity fastballs and how he would fare against major league lefties. At least so far, those don’t seem to be a problem, as three of his eight homers have come against left-handed pitchers, and he certainly hasn’t been overpowered by everyone throwing harder than 95 miles per hour.
Verdict: Mostly legit. While I don’t think he’ll continue on his 58-homer pace, he’s shown enough to convince me that we can put the full-blown bust concerns in the past. The extreme swing-and-miss tendencies will likely lead to some pretty lengthy slumps, but when it’s all said and done, I think fantasy managers will be happy with his home run output. Murakami’s profile lines up shockingly similarly to prime Joey Gallo, who managed to put up multiple 40-homer seasons despite strikeout rates north of 35% and batting averages hovering around .200. Even Kyle Schwarber, who is considered an elite fantasy asset, hit .197 with 47 homers a few years ago, which seems like it’s in the realm of possibilities for Murakami. There could still be some road bumps ahead as pitchers adjust and get a better scouting report on him, but there shouldn’t be as much worry about his bottom-out potential as there was heading into the year.
Jeremiah Jackson, 2B/3B/OF, BAL
Jeremiah Jackson stepped up to be the Orioles’ everyday second baseman while Jackson Holliday recovers from his hand injury, and he is making the most of his opportunity. He has been on fire in the past 14 days, batting .319 with five home runs in that span. On the season, he is slashing .296/.311/.535 with eight runs, five home runs, 17 RBI, and one stolen base. He’s hitting the ball well, with an 11.1% barrel rate that ranks in the 70th percentile of the league. While this breakout mainly came out of nowhere, Jackson did show at least decent pop and speed last season, with 20 homers and 11 stolen bases in 133 games between Triple-A and the majors.
However, there’s also a lot working against him. The 26-year-old’s plate discipline is bad across the board, with a 24.3% strikeout rate, 1.4% walk rate, and 41.6% chase rate. It’s hard to provide consistent production with plate discipline like that, especially if you don’t have elite raw power. Even in the midst of this hot streak, Jackson’s hard-hit rate is only 35.2%, with a 73.1 mph bat speed that’s nothing special.
Verdict: Not legit. If you’re in a deep league and looking to ride a hot hand as a streaming play, then go ahead and pick up Jackson. However, it’s most likely going to fizzle out soon and not come back. Hot streaks happen for even the worst major league players, and his is happening early enough in the season for it to give him an extremely appealing slash line for a while. The fringy 15-20 homer power is not enough to overpower the bottom of the barrel plate discipline, and he’ll likely be out of a job as soon as Holliday is ready to return.
Justin Wrobleski, SP, LAD
Justin Wrobleski tossed another gem on Monday night against the Rockies in Coors, allowing one run on eight hits and no walks over seven innings while striking out three. This was his second great start in a row, as it followed eight shutout innings he tossed against the Mets last week. On the season, he has a sparkling 1.88 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with three wins on the best team in baseball. He also has excellent control, with a 5.4% walk rate, and has been avoiding barrels with a 5.1% barrel rate. What’s not to like?
You may notice that there was one glaring omission in the stats listed above. Wrobleski struck out only five combined batters in those two previously mentioned starts, and he has only nine on the season. That works out to a 9.8% strikeout rate, and that’s not a typo. His 12.0% whiff rate is just as bad, and in his two best starts, it was down below 9%. The 25-year-old hasn’t even been inducing tons of soft contact either, as his 37.2% hard-hit rate ranks in the 58th percentile.
Verdict: Not legit. With virtually no swing-and-miss in his game, he just doesn’t have the stuff to keep up this level of performance. His .205 BABIP is doing essentially all of the heavy lifting here, and it’s bound to collapse in a disastrous way soon enough. You could take the gamble that the luck will continue in the short term and ride the hot hand, but that’s a risky proposition with his next start set to be against the Cubs.
