We are past the midpoint of the season. For most guys, we have plenty of data to be confident in. Many roles are about to change with the Trade Deadline approaching. Here are some players that are playing well. Let’s see if it makes sense to be aggressive in picking them up, or buying/selling them.
Carlos Estévez, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Estévez has spent much of his career as a closer of dubious reliability. Coming into this season he amassed 364.1 IP over 7 seasons, 56 total Saves, with ERAs ranging from 3.47-7.50. Of course 6 of these seasons were in Colorado, but his numbers weren’t good even for there. This year he currently has 32.o IP, 18 S, a 2.53 ERA, 0.78 WHIP (!), 26.3% K%, and 4.2% BB%. He’s had K% that high in the past, but his ERA, WHIP, and BB% are by far the best of his career. So, has he made any significant changes to support these numbers?
The most obvious place to start is his repertoire. I’m glad I’m not looking at Seth Lugo’s pitch mix. Breaking that down would take several thousand words. Throughout his career Estévez has been a four-seam-slider guy, mixing in his changeup 5-20% of the time. Since coming over to the Angels in 2023 he has thrown the slider a little bit more often, but not appreciably so. This year he is still using his four-seamer about 2/3, his slider 1/4, and the changeup the rest. So his success is not due to a pitch mix change.
What about stuff? His fastball velo, iVB, and HAVAA have been steady in recent years. In fact, his velocity is actually down to a career-low of 96.4 mph in 2024. Stuff+ gave his fastball a 116 in 2023 and just a 103 in 2024. PLV grades it as 83rd percentile, but that is due primarily to location, which we’ll get to. It does have improved outcomes. The .210 wOBA is 98 points better than last year.
The movement on his slider has improved slightly, and he is throwing it a bit harder. It is up to 88.9 mph (91st percentile). The SwStr% is up nearly 4 points to 14.3%. It also has 96th percentile CSW% and an excellent 11.8% ICR (99th percentile). Last year it was 42.1%. This has resulted in a .227 wOBA and .191 xwOBA. Last year Stuff+ gave it a 131 and it has a 129 this year.
The stuff behind his changeup is nearly identical to years past. He’s throwing them arm side more often than glove side. This may explain the 140 point drop in wOBA. However, it has a .516 xwOBA. Clearly, the 48 he’s thrown is too small a sample size to say much.
He has modestly improved the hiLoc% of his four-seamer by about 6 points. Last year he threw too many in the middle, but I wouldn’t exactly say he’s been a command artist with it this year.
2024-Source: Baseball Savant
2023-Source: Baseball Savant
His slider locations have actually worsened this year. It has a 96th percentile x-mLoc%, 96th percentile hiLoc%, and 83rd percentile mmLoc%. That’s not where to want to throw sliders.
Verdict: Not Legit. Estévez seems to largely be the same pitcher he was last year. He has an average fastball and an above average slider, but has been fortunate to give up so much weak contact on it. It’s good, but not 11.8% ICR good. It’s tough to say what role he’ll enter if he gets traded, but I’m guessing he would no longer be a closer. If he remains a closer, I would expect some regression in his ERA and WHIP.
Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco Giants
Ramos has come out of seemingly nowhere to post excellent numbers in 2024. He is 24 years old, the organization’s 35th-ranked prospect by FanGraphs, and was given a 40/40 Hit, 45/45 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, and 35+ Future Value. Across 60 PA last year he posted a .179/.233/.304 triple slash and .236 wOBA. In 275 PA this year he has a .291/.356/.510 triple slash and .370 wOBA. Where did this come from?
He has been the typical high bat speed, high Barrel% guy with poor contact skills.
Source: Baseball Savant
That Barrel% seems legit. Last year he had a 13.9% Barrel%. Based on his Bat Speed, I think his career Max EV of 112.7 mph will be surpassed by a wide margin. It seems like both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline may have underestimated his power a bit. I wouldn’t call it elite, but it is well above average. The only question is whether his contact skills and plate discipline will allow him to reach this power often enough.
Pitcher List’s Decision Value metric does not bode well for Ramos.
It’s plummeted precipitously as the season has progressed.
His Contact Ability doesn’t look much better.
Verdict: Not Legit. Guys can evolve of course, but with his current skill set I expect Ramos to flame out pretty soon. His .291 is 48 points higher than his .243 xAVG. Maybe he will develop just enough contact ability in future seasons to reach his potential, but not this year. Sell high.
Logan O’Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
It feels like O’Hoppe has been around for a little bit, but, due to a shoulder injury early in 2023, he has just 539 career PA. Most of them have come this year. In 199 PA last year he had a .337 wOBA and 113 wRC+. This year he has been modestly better with a .347 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Given such a relatively small career sample size I think it makes sense to see if he really is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball.
He’s maintained poor but not terrible K% and BB%. His 24.4% K% is 34th percentile and 5.6% BB% is 20th percentile. Much like Ramos, his quality of contact metrics are strong, but his plate discipline is lacking. He also has below average Bat Speed, but OK Max EV.
Source: Baseball Savant
Let’s see what the Pitcher List apps say.
Aren’t these tools great? They’re looking really good for O’Hoppe too.
Verdict: Legit. These graphs paint a better picture than my words ever could. I’m a terrible artist too. Uh oh. They show a guy who is rapidly improving his plate discipline and contact ability while maintaining his quality of contact. At just 24 years old I expect O’Hoppe to be an above-average fantasy catcher for many years to come.
Featured image by Doug Carlin (@bdougals on Twitter)