We’re over halfway through the season. Most numbers have become meaningful and stable. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageously by looking at underlying numbers that have stabilized.
Jasson Domínguez, OF, New York Yankees
Everyone is aware of Domínguez’s prospect pedigree. He was unfairly compared to Mike Trout and Mickey Mantle. Before the 2025 season, FanGraphs rated him the 21st Overall prospect with a 55 FV, 40/50 Hit, 55/60 Game Power, 60/60 Raw Power, 55/55 Speed, and 40/40 Field. Coming into this year, he was treated somewhat harshly due to those very high expectations. However, he had just 100 PA and posted a .207/..310/.437 slash, 27.0% K%, 13.0% BB%, and 110 wRC+. I’d consider that pretty good for someone who didn’t turn 22 until shortly before Spring Training this year.
Prior to the middle of June, he seemed to be the same guy. In 225 PA he had a .236/.324/.385 slash, 28.9% K%, 11.6% BB%, and 102 wRC+. However, he’s been on a tear recently. In 63 PA since June 16, he’s posted a .368/.413/.561 slash, 25.4% K%, 7.9% BB%, and a 173 wRC+. Over that time, he’s had just two homers but five stolen bases. Has he figured it out?
The first place to look with just about any young player is plate discipline. Domínguez has had a good BB% throughout his young career, but his K% has been a bit too high. Over his hot stretch, he has dropped it by about 5 points.
The scale can make it difficult to see, but his SwStr% has dropped about 6% and his Contact% has increased an impressive 15%.
Source: Baseball Savant
Domínguez has had upper-echelon Bat Speed since joining the league, but this year it has dropped about 1.5 mph. Barring injury, 22-year-olds don’t start losing Bat Speed. This tells me he has been taking a more controlled approach in order to increase contact.
His Contact+ is inversely proportional to his Power+.
This might not be a good thing for everybody, but it seems to be working for him.
Verdict: Legit. While his change in approach has led to fewer home runs, it is paying off for him in all other areas. He’s making solid contact more frequently and getting on base more, which allows him to use his 87th percentile Sprint Speed to steal more bases and score more runs. Also, there is certainly a world where he learns to pick his spots more and utilizes his plus Bat Speed to hit more HR.
Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds
Coming into this year, Steer was thought of as a decent source of power and an excellent source of stolen bases from first base. A shoulder injury slowed him in Spring Training, but other than limiting him to DH in the first few weeks, he did not miss any games. It certainly seemed to be affecting him, though. In his first 262 PA, he had just a .220/.282/.324 triple slash, 26.3% K%, 7.6% BB%, and 66 wRC+. He’s really turned things around since June 17, however. In his last 68 PA, he’s had a .365/.397/.714 slash, 16.2% K%, 4.4% BB%, and 199 wRC+. That wRC+ is 7th best over that period.
Frequently, when hitters aren’t feeling well, their power is affected the most. That huge change in slugging is accompanied by an astonishing .245 increase in ISO. He’s also doubled his HR total over that much shorter period. These numbers make the following chart that much more head-scratching.
His batted ball directions have remained largely unchanged between these two periods, but he has been hitting the ball in the air more. His Launch Angle has been steadily increasing throughout the year.
Source: Baseball Savant
Verdict: Not super legit. The elephant in the room is his 23.8% HR/FB%. He’s maintained an 11.1% HR/FB% over his career. Now, playing his home games in Cincinnati will certainly help him, and I do believe his shoulder is feeling better. He is elevating the ball more, and his Bat Speed is back to his career average. I expect career norms going forward, but nothing like the tear he has been on recently.
Caleb Durbin, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Durbin is a 25-year-old rookie who came over in the offseason from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade. He was their 21st-ranked prospect according to FanGraphs, but was not inside the Top 100 Overall. They gave him a 40 FV, 60/60 Hit, 30/35 Game Power, 40/40 Raw Power, and 60/60 Speed. His minor league numbers support those grades. He posted strong batting averages, but low ISOs.
In 90 PA prior to May 16, he had a .179/.270/.256 slash, .077 ISO, 6.7% K%, 4.4% BB%, and 54 wRC+. The Brewers stuck with him, and since that date he has 169 PA, a .288/.369/.404 slash, .116 ISO, 11.8% K%, 7.7% BB%, and 122 wRC+.
Guys who have such low K% and BB% usually don’t take a lot of pitches. His current overall Swing% is 44.3%. That’s 23rd percentile.
It’s amazing how closely his Swing% is correlated with his wOBA.
It’s also interesting how closely his GB% tracks with his wOBA. Usually, you see the opposite. What is less surprising is how his BABIP increases with his GB%.
Verdict: Legit, as long as you expect no power.
Durbin doesn’t hit the ball hard. There is always the chance he can increase his Bat Speed in future seasons, but for now, it appears he’s realized his game is to make a lot of contact on the ground. As soon as he started doing that and swinging more often, he began to get better results. As long as you’re not expecting anything more than batting average and decent stolen base numbers, Durbin can help you. Think of a lesser version of Luis Arráez or Jacob Wilson.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
