We’re just about a month away from the end of the MLB regular season, and whether you’re scratching and clawing for every “standings” point you can get in roto or you’re praying your team shows up in your head-to-head playoff matchups, one key waiver wire add can make all the difference. Today we’re diving into three of the top second-half performers to determine if their strong play will continue or if their success is a small sample mirage.
Osvaldo Bido, SP, Oakland Athletics
I don’t think even the most optimistic of A’s fans saw Bido’s second-half surge coming. The 28-year-old righty spent part of four seasons at Triple-A where he never performed particularly well (a 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 229.2 innings) and his early MLB returns weren’t much better. Bido saw one start in the first half of the season before bouncing between a bulk and single-inning role in the Oakland ‘pen, but since rejoining the starting rotation on July 23, Bido is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 35:13 K:BB rate in 31.2 innings.
One of the first things to look at in such a small sample is his opponents. Bido’s seen a mix of good and bad lineups in this stretch and has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his six games, including against the Dodgers and Astros.
Bido has a five-pitch arsenal. He relies on his four-seamer 40% of the time with a slider, changeup, cutter, and sinker making up the rest of his offerings, each carrying a usage rate between 22% and 10%. A pitcher having three distinct fastballs is always something I like to see, giving a pitcher a fastball offering he should be able to turn to in pretty much any situation against both-handed hitters. Here’s how PLV sees his arsenal:
A cursory glance at that chart shows that PLV is not impressed by Bido’s arsenal, giving him an overall 4.86 PLV, a mark well below league average. PLV views his slider and cutter as plus offerings but doesn’t care much for his other three pitches. Two other notable pitch models, Pitching Bot and Stuff+, don’t necessarily agree. Pitching Bot gives all his pitches besides the changeup above-average marks. Similarly, Stuff+ likes most of his offerings, grading just the changeup and cutter as mediocre.
Let’s zoom in a bit on Bido’s four-seamer because it’s a cause for concern. Even though he turns to it more often than any other pitch, the metrics are uninspiring. What jumps out to me the most is that Bido can’t consistently find the strike zone with it – it’s 41.4% Zone% and 56.8% Strike% are both bottom 10th percentile among MLB SP four-seamers.
Unfortunately, Bido’s lack of control doesn’t stop with the four-seamer – only his slider and cutter have above-average strike rates. His inability to find the zone when he needs to has resulted in an 11.6% walk rate, a mark in just the 12th percentile of MLB starters. Even in this recent run of success, he hasn’t let up much on issuing free passes as he’s maintained a double-digit walk rate.
Bido does a great job in helping to offset some of those walk troubles by limiting balls in play with high punchout numbers. He’s struck out 27.3% of batters since returning to the rotation, and that’s the 17th-best rate over that stretch. His K-BB% is also strong at 17.2%, coming in at 29th-best.
From a luck perspective, Bido’s been rather fortunate. His season-long .254 BABIP and 73.5% LOB% are both better than average. His 3.4% HR/FB% is one of the best in baseball, over 10 points better than the 13.8% league-average clip.
It’s a little early to completely bank on the A’s rotation playing out exactly as scheduled the rest of the way, but if it does, Bido has a pretty favorable set of matchups. Here’s how it’s projected: @CIN, SEA, DET, @CWS, @CHC, TEX. Those home matchups versus Seattle and Detroit are in the same week (Week 23 of the fantasy season), and is probably your best bet to get the most of Bido.
Verdict: Not legit. Bido has a solid arsenal to build on, but his lack of control scares me greatly. If his home run luck flips in a matchup where he’s struggling to find the zone, it could be a matchup killer, and I don’t necessarily want to take that risk in the fantasy playoffs. He’s certainly an interesting strikeout play and could be especially effective if you’ve already lost pitching ratios. If you’re feeling daring, that SEA and DET two-start week might be worth targeting.
Jake McCarthy, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
McCarthy has been a revelation for his fantasy managers in the second half. The lefty-swinging outfielder has hit .342/.388/.568 while stuffing the stat sheet. He has five homers, 19 runs, 26 RBI, and six steals over that stretch. His 163 wRC+ is the 17th-best in the league.
Since making his MLB debut in 2021, McCarthy’s proven himself to be a capable big-leaguer with sizzling speed on the base paths and the ability to play all three outfield positions, but he’s never flashed this kind of production at the plate before.
As is often the case with these hot streaks, McCarthy’s enjoying more luck than he typically does. His .359 BABIP would be a new best over a full season, but it’s not significantly higher than his career .333 mark. With 97th percentile sprint speed, it’s safe to expect a higher-than-average BABIP from McCarthy.
From a batted-ball standpoint, there hasn’t been an improvement that would warrant McCarthy’s new level of performance. His 5.1% barrel rate, 30.6% hard-hit%, and 87.3 mph EV are slightly better than his season and career numbers, but all three are still well below the league average. He’s also not distributing the ball much different than before. His batted ball types have stayed almost unchanged, and although his HR/FB% has nearly doubled, he’s actually pulling the ball and hitting it in the air less frequently.
On a plate discipline level, McCarthy’s recent returns are a mixed bag. He’s both striking out and walking less than he was before the All-Star break. He’s been a little more aggressive recently, but he isn’t necessarily making better swing decisions. He’s swinging more often at pitches both inside and outside of the strike zone. His contact rate is up a tick, but only a couple percentage points.
One of our newest metrics here at Pitcher List, Proccess+, shows a recent bump in McCarthy’s performance, but nothing that suggests he should be getting the fantastic results he’s been posting.
Verdict: Not Legit. McCarthy’s strong play over the last month checks every box indicating it’s simply a hot streak. You could cling to the very slight bump in barrel and hard-hit rates and hope that there are underlying changes, but even if that is true, the gains have been small and still place McCarthy well below the marks you want to see from an impact hitter. There’s nothing wrong with picking up a player to ride out a hot streak, but don’t give McCarthy too long of a leash when his numbers return to their typical levels.
Colin Rea, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rea’s been one of the biggest surprises in the 2024 season. Despite debuting back in 2015, last year marked only the second time he’d eclipsed over 100 innings in a career marked by serious injuries and a trip to Nippon Professional Baseball in 2022. Rea entered 2024 with a career 4.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 11.4% K-BB%, so naturally, the 34-year-old has broken out in his second season in Milwaukee, pitching to a 12-4 record with a 3.61 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and it’s only gotten better. Since the All-Star break, Rea’s 3.16 ERA is the 26th-best among starters while his 1.00 WHIP ranks 13th.
With six pitches in his arsenal, Rea can keep batters guessing. Here’s a look at his arsenal as PLV grades it:
Excusing the wacky way that his sweeper distribution is formatted, what sticks out is…not much, really. All of his pitches, save for the curveball that he only tosses at a 4% clip, grade out with below-average pitch shapes. That remains the case when analyzing Rea’s arsenal with other pitch modeling systems too. Pitching Bot sees nothing above average while Stuff+ views his slider and curveball as just a touch better than most.
Pitch modeling doesn’t always tell the full story, but in Rea’s case, it’s pretty illustrative of what he brings to the table. With no real standout pitch, Rea’s 19.2% strikeout rate is in the uninspiring 23rd percentile of big-league pitchers.
Although Rea doesn’t have wipe-out stuff, he is able to command his arsenal well. Four of his six pitches earn strikes at a better-than-average rate, and overall, his zone rate is 85th percentile and his strike rate is 62nd percentile. Rea does a great job limiting free passes by pumping pitches into the strike zone reliably, keeping his walk rate low (6.1%) and in the 80th percentile of pitchers.
The downside to this approach is that throwing so many pitches into the zone without swing-and-miss ability means a large amount of contact. Opposing hitters make contact on 80.8% of Rea’s pitches, a mark worse than 88% of MLB starters. Thankfully for Rea, although contact is made often, the results haven’t been good. Hitters are hitting just .235 with a .304 wOBA against Rea this season, compared to an expected .268 xAVG and .347 xWOBA.
Rea’s seen great results in two of the trio of luck metrics. Both his .258 BABIP allowed and 79.9% LOB% are in the 83rd+ percentile of pitchers. Meanwhile, he hasn’t had the same kid of luck on home runs—most likely due to calling hitter-friendly American Family Field home—with his 14.6% HR/FB% ranking in the bottom quartile of starters.
Verdict: Not Legit. Rea’s been great all season long, but with a long track record of spotty results, I’m not ready to buy into this being a legit breakout season. It’s not the worst idea to keep him rostered to use in good matchups, but running the risk of a blow up start in the fantasy playoffs is always scary. Here’s his projected schedule over the season’s final weeks: @CIN, STL, @SF, @ARI, ARI @PIT. I could buy into sticking with him over his next three outings if you want to roll the dice, but I’d avoid the two Diamondbacks matchups. They have one of the best line ups in the game.