The 2024 regular season is 2/3 over. While some of your league mates may be faltering, now is the time to stay focused and take advantage of that. Here are some players who’ve been hot that you can acquire via waivers or trade before your league trade deadline.
Luis García Jr., 2B, Washington Nationals
García Jr. has been around since 2020, but he hasn’t been talked about much since he’s been on some bad National teams. Just 24 years old, he was the Nationals’ #1 prospect when he graduated in 2020. FanGraphs gave him a 40/60 Hit, 30/45 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, and 50 Future Value. Prior to this year, he had 1245 PA, a .265/.295/.395 triple slash, and 85 wRC+. The .130 ISO was limiting his value.
In 369 PA this year he has a .290/.322/.460 slash, 117 wRC+, and the ISO is up to .170. However, since July 1 he has a .287 ISO and 8th best 197 wRC+. I’m confident in saying he’s a good contact hitter who will provide a good AVG and SB, but is this power surge real?
His prospect grades say he’d have below-average to average power. His Max EVs throughout his career have hovered between 110-113. That’s not great, but it’s not bad either. His Brl% took a dip last year, but otherwise, they’ve been climbing throughout his career, and are up to 9.0% this year (66th percentile).
Source: Baseball Savant
It’s been improving as this season has gone along too.
Source: Baseball Savant
Verdict: Mostly Legit. García Jr. is probably never going to be a big home run hitter, but if he can maintain even modest power he will be an above-average 2B. I didn’t mention that he already has by far a career-best 17 SBs. Pitcher List’s Power+ is basically an xISO and it shows he is hot right now. Even if he cools off, his floor is still a good source of AVG and SBs.
Brenton Doyle, OF, Colorado Rockies
Doyle was a toolsy, but otherwise middling prospect with the Rockies. FanGraphs ranked him as their 19th-best prospect and gave him a 20/30 Hit, 30/40 Game Power, 60/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, and 40 Future Value. In his MLB debut last year, his numbers seemed to confirm those grades. In 431 PA he hit 10 HR and had 22 SB. This came with a 35.0% K%, 5.1% BB%, and a putrid 43 wRC+.
He’s been much better this year. In 441 PA he has a .266/.327/.471 slash, 26.1% K%, 7.9% BB%, and 106 wRC+. He’s been especially good since July 1st. His 177 wRC+ is 13th in baseball over that period. He’s also already up to 19 HR and 21 SB. With him, as with so many, it’s all about contact.
Source: FanGraphs
Toward the end of last season, he began to modify his swing. It coincided with his improvement in Contact%, and of course his drop in K%. This has allowed him to not only use his 94th percentile Sprint Speed but also attain a 10.5% Brl% (77th percentile).
Verdict: Not Legit. Despite his contact improvement his strike zone judgment is still poor and has even declined as the season’s gone on.
A recent plummeting of his In-Zone Decision Value has also coincided with that abrupt drop in Contact% and wOBA.
Source: FanGraphs
It’s certainly possible he works to address his plate discipline in the future, but I would not trade for him now. If I did have him, I’d try to sell high.
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Wells was the 28th overall pick by the Yankees in 2020. He rose through the system fairly quickly before getting 75 PA with the big league club in 2023, posting a 97 wRC+. FanGraphs rated him the 51st overall prospect in baseball and gave him a 40/50 Hit, 45/55 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 30/30 Speed, and 50 Future Value.
In 258 PA this year he has a .244/.342/.410 slash, 20.2% K%, 12.8% BB%, and 115 wRC+.
In 137 PA since June 6 he has a 160 wRC+. That’s 23rd in baseball. His K%-BB% began to converge shortly after that also.
Even though something seemed to click then, his Decision Value has been solid all year.
Verdict: Legit. I had been looking for some sudden change, but it doesn’t appear to be there. I think this is simply a case of a good all-around young hitter being given regular playing time (due to Trevino’s injury) in a good ballpark for LHB in a premium batting slot behind Soto and Judge.
His Performance has continued to improve all year. He is already 25 years old and he may be entering his prime now.
Featured image by Doug Carlin (@bdougals on Twitter)