The 2026 draft class is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory. With Roch Cholowsky leading the pack, and many prep and college players who would have their name considered for the first overall pick in pretty much any other year, it is a good time to be selecting in the top 10. If there is any group where the top of the board is still in question, it is the college pitching class. While there are several names in the SEC and ACC who will make their case, the name that keeps rising every time he touches the mound is Jackson Flora.
Gas
Every week, I make a social media clip for the top velocities thrown in college baseball. And almost every single week, Jackson Flora’s name is on it. As a starting pitcher, Flora’s fastball averages 96.4 mph, topping out at 100.4. Add that high-octane velocity to the fact that he stands at 6’5″ and it is an intimidating at-bat for hitters. Flora has a 6.55 extension, making his fastball feel like 110 mph for the hitter.
Combining the effective velocity Flora features with the movement profile, the pitch becomes even more impressive. Flora currently features a 105 MLB Stuff+ on the heater due to his combination of extension, low release, and IVB. The pitch averages 17.1 in IVB with a -4.45 VAA, allowing it to be effective up in the zone. In the upper third of the zone, the pitch features a 31% whiff rate, which for a fastball is extremely impressive.
Flora also isn’t afraid to attack with the fastball and shows impressive command. The pitch features a 51.4% in-zone rate, showing he will attack hitters with his best pitch. Flora has an MLB-ready fastball that would be an effective pitch at the next level immediately after draft day.
The Secondary Offerings
When looking at the whole repertoire, Flora features a five-pitch mix. That mix of offerings will serve him very well in his quest to stick as a starter at the next level. In college baseball, it is very common to see a pitcher with a fastball with the quality of Flora’s and just use it 70% of the time because they can. Then those same pitchers typically have one nasty breaking ball they use, and it is enough to get hitters out. This has been a theme with pitchers like Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, Gage Wood, and Liam Doyle, to name a few from recent drafts. With a 43% FB usage rate, Flora is different. And the main reason for that difference is his wealth of offerings.
His second most used pitch, and best offspeed offering, is his change-up. The pitch currently has a 106.1 MLB Stuff+ and generates an unreal 57.1% whiff rate. Combine that with a low 23.5% chase rate, and you can see the pitch is most effective in the strike zone. A lot of concerns with projecting the breaking pitches of college pitchers can be from generating chase, which is typically not sustainable at the next level. Generating that much whiff in the zone shows this pitch is elite already, as evidenced by his 106.1 Stuff+.
Flora also features a slider and a sweeper that he uses about 25% combined. The slider has generated a 27.8% whiff rate with a 15.4% chase rate, showing the pitch has some work to be done at the next level. The pitch does have a 109.1 MLB Stuff+, so the movement profile is capable of being effective; he might just need better use and location of the pitch. The sweeper has generated a little more whiff with a 33.3% rate and features 111 MLB Stuff+.
The combination of an MLB-ready fastball with three offspeed pitches that all grade out as plus MLB offerings today means there is a lot to love about what Flora is as a pitcher. The change-up is a new pitch he just started throwing this year, and it really limits his reliever risk at the next level. He currently has four pitches that can be effective at the next level, and the overall repertoire will be the main reason he is likely the top pitcher on many draft boards.
What are the Concerns?
After reading all this, you might answer this with none, and that is probably accurate. Flora has an MLB-ready fastball that isn’t just all velocity. He has a borderline elite change-up and two breaking balls that grade out as plus in MLB Stuff+. Combine that with 21 strikeouts and only four walks to start the season, and Flora seems like a flawless prospect. There is only one thing that will hurt him: competition.
Last season we saw the Angels take Flora’s teammate, Tyler Bremner, with the number two overall pick. That means teams are not afraid of UCSB mid-major competition, but in a draft with more top-end talent, it could be an impediment to Flora’s draft ceiling. Teams will have to rely on the Stuff+ in evaluation more than the whiff metrics. A high-90s pitcher in the mid-major ranks can sometimes simply overpower their opponents. But if you look at the five-pitch mix and the movement profiles of those offspeed pitches, you can tell it is not fool’s gold. It may be enough to take Flora in the top five or fall out of the top 10, but no matter what, Flora is as refined a pitcher as we have seen in recent memory.
Conclusion
One of my favorite parts about doing these prospect breakdowns is when I fall in love with a prospect as I write. I always come in with a preconceived perception of a player, but let the data define how I portray the player rather than my biases. That was the case with Flora. The more I wrote, the more I fell in love.
This isn’t a schoolyard bully who throws fastballs right down the middle against lesser competition. This is a well-polished starting pitcher with five offerings, all featuring above-average grades and strike-throwing ability. That is a major recipe for success at the next level. Jackson Flora should be the top pitcher on the board in this year’s draft.
