Action on the outfield grass represents a sizeable component in the recent rise of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin Carroll didn’t only break in 2023, but appeared a budding superstar. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. parlayed his power outburst into a new three-year deal. Alek Thomas‘ blend of speed and defense was a boon for the Snakes last October. Not a lot of room for a guy like Jake McCarthy.
Or so we thought.
Despite questions about the sustainability of their ’23 success from many (yours truly included), the D-Backs are once again on a second-half run. They — along with almost identically hot San Diego — are not only pulling away in the National League Wild Card race but are pushing the Los Angeles Dodgers for the outright NL West crown.
The interesting thing isn’t so much that they’re replicating last year’s late-season run. It’s how they’re doing it. That outfield that appeared such a pillar has taken on a new form this year: disappointing. Carroll has struggled to gain traction coming off a dominant rookie year. Gurriel’s power output is down. Thomas was recently optioned to Reno.
Throw in an injury to Christian Walker and you start to wonder how nobody in the league has scored more runs than this group. Like, it’s not particularly close. As of this writing, the New York Yankees and their 635 runs scored sit 21 runs behind the Snakes.
There’s certainly a worthy case study in examining the offensive prowess of this lineup. Schedule dynamics, single-game outbursts, and Ketel Marte’s emergence as a legitimate MVP candidate (pre-ankle injury). We could point to a lot of things. But that’s not our focus here. Instead, we’re here to discuss the Arizona outfielder who isn’t slogging through a disappointing 2024: the aforementioned Jake McCarthy.
A Snake in the Grass
McCarthy’s tenure in Arizona once looked quite promising. After a 70 plate appearance sample in 2021, he notched over 350 plate appearances the following season. His line included a strong .283 average and on-base percentage north of .340. His 74.0% contact rate was a 13-point jump from that previous sample. Perhaps most importantly, he swiped 23 bags. The power was merely occasional, but Jake McCarthy presented as a player who fit the identity of the young D-Backs: “young and fast outfielders.”
Of course, when those same young D-Backs were ready for the next step, it was McCarthy who was left behind. In fact, Arizona’s pennant season saw very little contribution from him.
The 2023 iteration of McCarthy wasn’t long for the starting gig he’d latched onto in ’22. Just about everything on the stat sheet came crumbling down. The way it happened, though, was perhaps the biggest frustration. Because his skill set was actually better. McCarthy struck out less. Swung at fewer pitches. He made more contact. And yet, his HardHit rate fell by 10%. Couple that with a slightly higher ground-ball rate and a modest increase in pull-side contact and, well, you get a 44-point drop in BABIP.
Can’t utilize your speed when you’re not getting on base. And the fact that McCarthy still stole 26 bags against the detriment of a paltry .318 OBP tells you about what an asset his speed can be. He just had to, you know, get on base.
The Un-Spectacular Now
If one wanted to go by the ol’ WAR metric, Jake McCarthy has been a top-15 outfielder in all of baseball this year, according to FanGraphs. They have him at 2.9, tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. among those with at least 300 plate appearances. Pretty much everywhere McCarthy experienced a fall in 2023 is back on the come up for 2024, if not better than his original “breakout.”
The slash line goes .310/.382/.450/.832. Those are near-70-point jumps across the board. The most interesting part is that McCarthy is building on many of the same trends as last year.
Like the transition from 2022 to 2023, McCarthy has demonstrated more patience. The difference in flipping over to 2024 is that he’s shown more patience outside of the strike zone. While he was able to increase his overall contact rate despite swinging regularly outside the strike zone, he’s cut the overall swing rate and created more contact within the zone. His overall contact rate (82.2) ranks 51st among 220 position players with at least 300 plate appearances. His Z-Contact rate, though, sits 11th among that same group (93.6%). That’s intensely strong contact ability.
There’s a level of maturity there in his management of the zone that is manifesting in more quality contact. That command of the zone has allowed McCarthy to generate more elevated contact to the opposite field. So while the quality of contact sits nearly identical to the low rates of 2023, his ability to generate oppo contact off the infield grass is serving as a boon. The BABIP, in turn, has leapt all the way back up to .363.
It’s a steady improvement, but an important one. Because it’s brought Jake McCarthy back to the type of player that we expected back in ’22. It’s not as if he’s a Carroll-level talent in the Arizona outfield. But given the stability he offers with the contact and the offense he can help to generate with the speed, he’s an ideal presence within a lineup capable of explosion on any night.
The (New & Definitely Better) McCarthy Era
Ahead of McCarthy’s own growth manifesting in a second breakout season is the importance of the broader implications for the Snakes’ outfield group. With Gurriel’s new deal, things appeared to be fairly locked in. His hair in left. Alek Thomas in center. Corbin Carroll in right. Things appear to be a bit more complicated at this juncture, however. Or are they?
The power upside that Gurriel provides, in conjunction with his contract, stands to make him a continued lock. Carroll’s struggles aren’t likely to change anything with respect to his long-term outlook. This means that we’re likely looking at a Thomas-McCarthy showdown for the bulk of the time in center.
For the remainder of 2024, at least, McCarthy gets the edge. FanGraphs has him at 58% of the playing time in center. They also project him to spell the corners frequently, with 19% of the time in left and eight percent in right. Overall, they’re giving him an 85% share of playing time through the end of the regular season. Baseball Prospectus likes him more in center. He’s got 70% of the projected time there, with five percent in each corner.
It’s not difficult to see that being the case for 2024 Jake McCarthy. With Thomas having been optioned and McCarthy proving to be a steady presence in the lineup, he’s obviously going to be the guy throughout the remainder of August into September. Beyond that, though, is where things start to get tricky. Again, though: or do they?
Thomas and McCarthy each possess nearly identical pedigree, given their draft position in 2018. Thomas has yet to realize his upside at the plate, despite being the objectively better defender. McCarthy, meanwhile, has showcased an offensive breakout on two separate occasions. If we’re looking at long-term odds, they’re clearly favoring the latter by a fairly wide margin.
The important thing to note about McCarthy’s second breakout is that it’s not as if he’s some all-world presence in their lineup. Marte, Walker, and, ideally, Carroll are the guys to carry the starting nine. But that shouldn’t lead us to understand the value of a bat like McCarthy. The Arizona Diamondbacks have built their identity around an on-base presence and base stealing efficiency. Few players can represent that better than McCarthy. So while he’s not posting gaudy numbers all over the stat sheet, he’s a valuable player in any lineup. But for this Arizona group, he’s virtually ideal.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)