Dominica, Tonga, Micronesia, Palau, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Tuvalu share the distinction of being recognized countries that have a lower annual GDP than Juan Soto’s total contract value with the Mets. $51 million a year for 15 years. There’s an opt-out that complicates the figures a bit, but the headline sum of $765 million is a staggering figure that placed lofty expectations on Soto. The Dominican already has a foot in Cooperstown, but for that money, Mets fans aren’t just expecting a great player—they expect all-time brilliance.
So far, they have not gotten it.
Soto has been… decent. His walk rate is still among the league’s best, and his wRC+ of 113 means he’s still an above-average hitter despite a terrible BABIP of .239. However, decent isn’t going to cut it. Soto has had a fairly embarrassing start to his Mets tenure, but the star outfielder is still the elite hitter he’s always been… mostly.
Red Circles
DISCLAIMER: This is lazy journalism. I promise there will be strong analysis to come, but let’s look at red circles in the meantime:
Source: Savant
Hello, 100th percentile chase rate. Hello, excellent barrel and exit velo data. Yep, that’s a lot of red. If we were to nitpick, his walk rate is now gasp only 98th percentile, and his barrel rate is back down from 99th percentile batting in front of Aaron Judge to his normal 84th percentile. But to do so would be silly, because this is still obviously the Savant page of a good hitter. But hey, if you want more red, here’s the PL version:
Source: us!
Hey, would you look at that, he’s still outstanding. PL’s version of xwOBA is harsher on Soto, yet he still ranks extremely high. How’s his process+?
Yep. Still great.
The conclusion from this is that Soto is getting extremely unlucky. Is that really the case?
Juan Soto? More like Juan Sotonoflineouts
It is really the case. A low BABIP doesn’t inherently mean that a player is getting unlucky, but it’s really hard to have a BABIP that low if you are barreling the ball as much as Soto is. There have been plenty of examples so far of Soto just not having the ball find the grass. Here’s a handful of them:
April 13th against the A’s, Soto hits this 112.4 off the bat on a shallow line drive to dead center and…
Oh would you look at that, one of the best catches I’ve ever seen an infielder make. Ok lets see another:
Home run robbed. This isn’t a home run in every park, but it’s a heck of an effort by Scott to properly rob Soto of a round tripper. Ok, that’s two. What else we got?
Ok, this one is going to require some explaining. Michael A. Taylor does not actually catch this ball, but traps it under his glove. Brandon Nimmo thinks he catches it, passes Soto on the basepaths (who does admittedly give up on the play), and thus Soto is ruled out. To recap, Juan Soto hit a line drive that landed in the outfield, but is called out on the basepaths, and it’s ruled to be a lineout. Yep. Baseball is still weird, folks.
Soto has had sixteen batted balls resulting in outs that had a Statcast xBA of .500 or higher. That doesn’t lead MLB (Ohtani has 20—he’s underrated), but it’s tied for ninth. For a guy who doesn’t actually put the ball into play that often, Soto has been incredibly unlucky at the plate.
Not So Fast
…there is one thing that raises my eyebrow though, and no, it’s not Soto striking out three times against Garret Crochet. Soto doesn’t strike out often, but he’s had 20 other games with 3+ strikeouts in his career, including a 4-strikeout golden sombrero back in 2023. What raises my eyebrow is that Soto’s swing speed has dropped to 73.3 mph
Now, 73.3 mph is still excellent, but it’s not elite. In 2024, Soto’s bat speed was 75.4 mph, which ranked 94th percentile. Even in the dead center of the strike zone, Soto’s swing speed has dropped from 76-77 in 23-24 to 74 mph this year. What’s curious is that Soto appears to have shortened his swing by a few inches, which may explain the drop in swing speed, but is strange for a hitter who has been so productive.
His launch angle has also gone down, although his swing path has actually remained strong—even improving. Using Statcast’s new swing path tracking, we can see Soto’s angle has ticked up to 11 degrees, and his ideal attack angle rate is at a 3 year high at 68%, which is 6th highest in baseball (disclaimer: despite the name, there isn’t the strongest of correlations between good hitters and ideal attack rate. Take this with a grain of salt). Here are his 2024 swing zones compared to the second picture, which is his zones in 2025, spot the differences:
2024, source: Statcast
2025, source: Statcast
A bit slower, but Soto’s exit velocity has actually been even better in some instances. So why isn’t his launch angle better? I can’t say for certain, but my hypothesis is that his shortened swing means his timing is a bit off. An earlier swing would cause his barrel to reach the plate sooner, but may also result in topping the ball more. This tweaked swing hasn’t paid dividends yet, but the fact that his shortened swing and reduced bat speed haven’t resulted in substantial drop-offs in exit velo makes me optimistic. A deeper swing analysis is something that—well—is not my expertise, but he’s still Juan Soto.
New York State Of Mind
Even though Soto moved between boroughs instead of cities, adjusting to a new park and environment is tricky, even for veterans. If there’s any concern with Soto, it shouldn’t be with his offensive output but his declining speed and very poor performance so far in right field. Soto’s the type of player where a team will eat poor defense to get the bat in the lineup, but maybe DH duty is going to be more commonplace for Soto. Regardless, he’s worth buying in your fantasy leagues, and in dynasty, this may be the lowest his stock has ever been.
