One of the best parts of the MLB Draft, is that players drafted from any round can have success. While evaluations are about tools, the game is an art. The skills that directly translate to on field success are hard to quantify in evaluation, which leads to players drafted after the fifth round outperforming first round picks. We will try to take a look at some names drafted after the fifth round who could outperform their draft slot. Those types of players are common in baseball, and integral to building an elite farm system in a dynasty league.
Late Round Draft Names to Know
Jared Spencer, Toronto Blue Jays
A 14th rounder in the 2024 Draft out of Indiana State, Spencer decided to head the the University of Texas as a senior to enhance his draft stock. In one season in Austin, he was looking like a guaranteed top-five round pick, and potentially higher with a strong finish, until his season was cut short due to injury.
In a draft lacking truly elite college pitching talent, Spencer was gradually moving up the list to be the best. In 10 starts, he featured a 3.27 ERA with 66 strikeouts and only 23 walks in 52.1 innings. He came into his senior season as one of the best senior draft prospects in the class, and showcased improvement across the board, making him an intriguing prospect for pro teams.
The velocity saw an uptick this Spring sitting 93-96 and touching 98 from the left side. He also improves the overall shape of his slider, which translated into a dominant out pitch for him. His change-up made significant strides as well giving him three above average pitches. Lastly, Spencer cleaned up some of his mechanics leaving many to believe the best of his command is ahead of him.
Had Spencer finished the season healthy and performing strong, there is no way he would have fallen to the 11th round. The talent is too good to not track.
Korbyn Dickerson, Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners had a great 2025 draft. The ability to draft Dickerson in the fifth round could go down as one of the best value picks in the whole draft.
Dickerson transferred from Louisville to Indiana for his Junior season, and was one of the better breakout players in the country. During his time at Louisville, he only played 21 total games, never getting a real shot to show off his skills. When he got the chance to play everyday at Indiana, he took advantage of it. He finished the season hitting .314/.381/.632 with 19 home runs, showcasing impressive combination of bat to ball skills and power.
While I do not have end of the season data on Dickerson, in April he featured a 75.9% contact rate with a 93.6 mph exit velocity, and a 25.6% chase rate. Those are all comparable data points to much of the first round college hitters in this class. Considering he only featured one year of college experience, there is a great chance his best baseball is ahead of him with continued game reps.
Tanner Thach, Colorado Rockies
Coming into the spring, many thought Thach had a great chance to be selected in the first round. During the 2024 season, he hit .324/.406/.700 with 27 home runs and only 54 walks in 61 games. The combination of elite power, and enough plate awareness and bat to ball had many intrigued by what he could do in his junior season at UNCW. You’d think that if a preseason first-round pick slipped all the way to the eighth round, he must have had a terrible year, right? Not necessarily.
While there was definitely regression, Thach showed a lot of good things. He finished the season hitting .325/.409/.538 with 12 home runs. The decrease in power from 27 to 12 home runs was definitely a major factor in his draft stock falling, especially as a first base prospect, but that also came with a decrease in strikeouts from 54 to 41.
Knowing the 6 foot 4, 225 lb hitter is still physically gifted, those bat to ball improvements could be seen a positive. A lot of times cleaning up a swing/approach will come with a decrease in power output immediately, but once the player becomes confident in the new approach, the power will return. Thach has had a solid start to his pro career, and being in Colorado will help him reach his power potential.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jared Jones with the Pittsburgh Pirates? Not that Jones, a different one. This Jared Jones was arguably the best hitter on the LSU National Champion team, and possesses big time power that will translate at every level of professional baseball. Jones was another first base prospect who saw his power numbers decrease, while improving his batting average and contact skills. The difference between Jones and Thach, is Jones hit 22 home runs while hitting .323 in the SEC.
I spent most of the season referring to Jones as a schoolyard bully. In conference games he hit .264 with only seven home runs in 30 games. Considering he hit .323 on the season, that means he hit .373 with 15 home runs in 38 non-conference games.
More times than not those non-conference teams are not as talented as the SEC teams, and that is a major concern about Jones potential against professional competition. But Jones’ talent is undeniable, and he has performed on the big stage. If you are going to miss, whiff on potential.
Ryan Prager, Cleveland Guardians
After being selected in the third round by the Angels in the 2024 draft, Prager made the uncommon decision to return to Texas A&M for his senior year. Unfortunately, that did not go as planned for him, as the team missed the postseason, and he regressed in many statistical categories. Just an unfortunate business decision on Prager’s part.
On the good, the talent that made him a third round pick is still there. The velocity has never been premium, but during the 2024 season, he struck out 124 batters in 97.2 IP while pitching to a 2.95. One season under the guidance of pitching coach Max Weiner was seemingly what changed his career, and after Weiner went to Texas, Prager regressed again.
The best part of all this is Weiner was a focal point in the Guardians pitching development system, and the upgrade from the Angels to the Guardians is probably worth the signing bonus decrease. Prager is the type of pitcher who needs the right system to maximize his potential. If the Guardians work their magic, I would not be surprised to see the three above-average pitches with above average command turn into a solid mid rotation arm.
Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
