As we prepare to hit the end of July, we’re about to reach a very important benchmark in the MLB season: the trade deadline.
The deadline doesn’t only represent one of the more energetic points in a long season. It’s also a declarative benchmark. Teams intent on trying to win will tell you so. Those that are ready to pack it in for the remainder of the year, too.
I’ve noted my obsession with aesthetics in baseball on this platform before. I want a defense to look good. Velocity and sudden movement from pitchers. Swings that look violent and majestic. There’s a certain level of visual appeal needed; it’s why baseball has always remained at the forefront of my mind in the greater spectrum of sports. Those are specific elements of the game, though. There’s a broad context to consider here.
It’s about the quality of the “product.” It’s not a lens through which I typically prefer to view the game. Too business-y for me. I much prefer the more spiritual and whimsical mindset as it relates to baseball. But as we reach this point in the MLB season, the bad teams are going to make decisions. Those decisions might center around trading some or all of the few legitimately good players on their roster. With that, the visual appeal lessens.
So how do you remain engaged? It’s a question I’ve asked myself throughout an intensely underwhelming season from the Chicago Cubs. And it’s one that I’ll ask more frequently post-July, given that President Jed Hoyer has already declared an eye on 2025.
The addition of the Wild Card makes it so that the sellers are fewer and farther between. But we largely know who they are. Fans of teams primed to sell are in the same boat as me. Contention is out of reach. It’s a purposeless two-month stretch in that respect. So what are we watching for?
Let’s see if we can find some things.
Who Is This Even For?
By my count, there are six teams involved in the National League Wild Card picture: Atlanta, New York, St. Louis, San Diego, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. Those teams are all within a game of a playoff spot, as of this writing. Throw in division leaders out of Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. That’s fans of nine NL squads for which this column is not.
Cincinnati is four games back. The Cubs & San Francisco Giants are five. Washington is only slightly behind at 5.5. Then we get to Colorado and Miami, who have each been out since… the end of April? Those are our National League teams. While the Reds, Cubs, Giants, and Nats have a long way to go toward mathematical elimination, the likelihood of leaping at least three of the former teams mentioned is already unlikely. Let alone after what transpires pre-deadline.
On the Senior Circuit, we’ve got the Orioles, Guardians, and Astros atop divisions. The Yankees seem a sure bet to either grab the top Wild Card spot or their division outright. Behind them are the Twins and Royals. Boston sits just outside at 1.5 games back.
I’m going to count Seattle and Tampa Bay among the contenders. Seattle can’t score runs and are now without two of their best hitters for a while. But they have steady pitching and an aggressive president of baseball ops. I don’t feel comfortable ruling the Rays out of anything, either. I’m leaving the Texas Rangers here, too. They’re the defending champs and within just 3.5 games of their division. Plus, the field that they would all have to cross to grab a Wild Card spot is thinner than the other side of MLB. That leaves the Tigers, Blue Jays, Angels, A’s, and White Sox checking out for the rest of ’24.
That’s 11 squads ready to call it a year by the end of the month. 19 teams aiming to remain competitive seems like good news for the league at large. The rest of us, though, need to dig a little deeper. In most cases, it’ll boil down to prospects. But we’ll try to be creative, too.
The Cubs have had an underwhelming offensive season. Michael Busch has emerged as a nice piece in the lineup. Ian Happ has been very good since a slow start. Depending on the night, they have some guys that’ll perform. But you’re not tuning in to watch them struggle to score with a collection of supplementary bats. Instead, there are two components to look out for and they both relate to the farm.
For one, the Cubs have improved their pitching infrastructure greatly. We’ve seen arms like Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, and Hunter Bigge make their debuts this season. A lot of velo and a lot of movement. It’s pitching the team hasn’t employed before and provides a dash of excitement down the stretch.
That’s in addition to the tantalizing possibility of them calling up some of their top prospects on the other side of the ball. Moises Ballesteros behind the plate is an interesting power bat that could merit a cup of coffee. Last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw could get some infield reps. Outfield bopper Owen Caissie might be worth a look, too. With a reportedly loaded farm system, it might be high time we get to see some of ’em. It’s contingent on them moving some veteran bats before the deadline, however.
This list is in alphabetical order. But I was going to drop the Sox in last given how bleak their overall outlook is in the near and long-term. Especially if names like Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr are moved. Not unlike their crosstown “rivals”, however, the Sox do sport some interesting arms. Drew Thorpe, for one. He’s had six consecutive quality starts since a clunker in Arizona last month. Jonathan Cannon, Nick Nastrini, and Jairo Iriarte are some other ones to keep an eye on. The former two have already seen starts at the top level. If anything, Chicago’s second-half rotation could offer more intrigue than the one in the first.
Infield prospect Brooks Baldwin is one to watch as well, as he looks to find a defensive home. Especially given that we probably won’t see the organization’s top prospect, Colson Montgomery, in 2024. He’s struggled quite a bit this year in Charlotte. What about Nick Senzel? A change-of-scenery guy on his second change of scenery should get a nice, long look at multiple positions. Yes, I’m suggesting that MLB veteran Nick Senzel is a reason to watch the Chicago White Sox. I’m doing my best.
It feels like Rece Hinds has been a Reds prospect for a decade. He’s only in his fifth professional season. But he’s finally reached the MLB level and sports big power. His ISO through 36 plate appearances is an obscene .618. He’s homered five times in nine games.
Elly De La Cruz is always going to be here, too. He’s one of the three or four most exciting players in baseball. That’s not going to change if the Reds forfeit their 2024 aspirations. Especially on the basepaths, where he’s at 49 swipes for the year.
The Reds were preseason darlings for a reason. There are a number of hitters with big upside. And some interesting arms. Might we even see Rhett Lowder? Perhaps not. But there are enough offensive pieces on this roster to continue tuning in, even for the objective observer such as myself.
Many of the team’s top prospects are still at least a year away. So they don’t have that to fall back on in the way that their non-contending counterparts do. Might I interest you in Brenton Doyle? He’s made incredible strides at the plate and has a 20/20 season within reach. Combine that with his elite brand of defense and dare I say the Rox might have an upper-tier player on their hands?
If Doyle doesn’t do it for you, then perhaps you might find interest in Michael Toglia. In his longest MLB run to date, he has a .288 ISO and has 16 homers in only 58 games. I’ll take that in Denver.
By the end of the month, the Tigers could trade their top arm in Tarik Skubal. They could also trade their second-best one in Jack Flaherty. One is more likely than the other, but losing anyone from a staff that’s been in the top half of the league hurts their watchability.
I’ll take some continued development from Colt Keith, though. He’s bumped up the approach and is hitting .328 this month. His 14.1% BB% is nearly double any other individual month, and he’s got a .377 ISO in July to boot.
This team also needs to spend the second half of the year figuring out who is a part of their 2025 squad, aside from Keith and Riley Greene. Is Wenceel Pérez? Parker Meadows? Ideally, we’ll get a look at Jace Jung as well. It’s that sorting of future rosters that offers the most intrigue out of the Motor City.
Uh, well, Mike Trout left his rehab assignment early this week. And not for good reasons. So that’s probably out. I guess… they steal bases? They’re seventh in the league in steals. That can be fun to watch.
More than anything, though, what I’m looking for is some sustainability out of Jo Adell. His upside is tantalizing. He got off to a scorching start in April, with a .316 average and four homers. He was awful in May and June but has regained some of it in July. I’m not ready to believe he’s a Quadruple-A player. But he’ll need a strong second half to avoid becoming a change-of-scenery candidate this winter. He’s the guy I’m watching.
Logan O’Hoppe’s quite fun as well. There aren’t too many offensively capable catchers. There’s some occasional power there. I wouldn’t mind watching some more of Nolan Schanuel’s advanced approach, either. So there are some things worth watching here. In true Angels fashion, though, really none of them are on the bump.
Honesty time. I have not watched a single second of Miami Marlins baseball in 2024. Not even when a team I follow regularly is playing them. It’s not even a vendetta. Their front office quit in early May. They’re just wholly uninteresting since. And will become even more so if they trade away Jazz Chisholm Jr.
I’d personally like to see some Max Meyer, however. He’s been unable to stick at the MLB level because of injury and underperformance. But he’s looked solid in a trio of Marlins starts and has been sharp in Triple-A. The Fish have a handful of interesting arms, but Meyer’s got the kind of draft pedigree that could make him a star if he pans out.
I expressed my thoughts on the Still Oakland squad earlier this week. I won’t rehash it here. I’m not exactly sure what you’re watching for when this team is in the field. Unless it’s a save situation and you’re getting some Mason Miller in your life.
But there are enough interesting bats as a reason to remain engaged. Whoever from Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, JJ Bleday, or Zack Gelof is around once the calendar hits August is worth keeping tabs on.
The Giants are a unique team here. They have a number of quality veterans with a certain track record. I love watching Logan Webb pitch. Blake Snell is doing second-half Blake Snell things. Every time I’ve watched the Giants this year, Heliot Ramos does something cool. He’s a star. Brett Wisely puns are fun, too. I make those each time I tune in.
What makes the Giants interesting in the second half, though, is their spoiler potential. That’s a concept wrought by the actual quality of these veterans. By my count, the Giants will have 37 games against MLB contenders in August and September. It’s a daunting schedule. But it leaves them with an opportunity to have a sizable bearing on the playoff races in both leagues. These will be important games for teams. Actual stakes aren’t a thing that these non-contenders boast. The Giants have them.
What a disappointing year. The vibes were bad when they missed out on multiple free agents — including Shohei Ohtani — and those have carried into the year. Worse yet, Bo Bichette is on the IL. Top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann is seeking multiple opinions on his elbow. Top positional prospect Orelvis Martínez was popped with a PED suspension less than a week after his debut.
Similar to Detroit, the Jays’ second half is about determining the future of their roster. Bichette might not want to be a part of it. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr does. Spencer Horwitz looks like a capable bat. Davis Schneider has taken a step back after a strong rookie year. A number of veteran bats (George Springer, Kevin Kiermaier) might not be around when this team is ready to contend again.
It was super recent that this team looked like an up-and-comer in a good division. Unfortunately for them, their own shortcomings juxtaposed with the success of other teams in the AL East leaves them to simply wonder about how to shape this roster moving forward. Still interesting! But not necessarily in a good way.
A lot of credit is due to the Washington Nationals. They hung around in the National League standings far more than anyone might’ve given them credit for. They’re a top-3 team in swipes, so there’s some excitement there. They just don’t get on base, hit for power, or play quality defense.
But they’re sort of a blend of some of the other non-contenders out there. They’ve got some of their future roster already at the MLB level (James Wood, C.J. Abrams) and some trying to make a case (Trey Lipscomb). On the mound, they feature MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz. That’s a really nice developing core.
Because of that, they’re in a situation not unlike the Giants. They’ve got nearly 20 games against various contenders in the last two months of the year. Don’t underestimate a young team in games with those stakes.