Liam Doyle has been one of the biggest risers in the 2025 draft class. As a Sophomore at Ole Miss, Doyle showcased premium stuff, but struggled to keep runs off the board. During that season, he struggled to the tune of a 5.73 ERA with 84 strikeouts and 21 walks in 55 IP. The swing and miss was evident, but consistency was a major issue. Well the switch flipped in 2025. En route to winning the SEC Pitcher of the Year, Doyle pitched to a 2.72 ERA with 137 strikeouts and 25 walks in 79.1 IP. His 15.5 K/9 is higher than Paul Skenes had during his draft year at LSU, and slightly behind 2024 SEC Pitcher of the Year Hagen Smith. Doyle has been dominant this season, and that success will have his name called early in this seasons draft.
Liam Doyle: 2025 Draft’s Biggest Riser
A True 80 Grade Fastball
Doyle has the best Fastball in the class, and quite frankly it might not be close. The movement profile on the pitch is in line with the modern day elite FBs. The pitch has a -4.19 VAA with 19.5 IVB. His ability to have such a low release combined with a true backspinning profile makes it extremely effective, especially up in the zone. It is a truly dominant pitch, as he has used it 66% of the time, and it is still generating a 41% whiff rate. Hitters know it is coming, and still can’t touch it.
The fastball was a solid offering last year at Ole Miss, but things have taken a significant turn since his transfer to Tennessee. During the 2024 season, the pitch averaged 92.5 mph and topped out at 96.1. It was effective, generating a 33.3% whiff rate, but it wasn’t quite as dominant. That has changed in a big way this year, thanks largely to a major velocity jump over the offseason. Now averaging 95.6 mph and reaching as high as 99.6, the fastball has transformed. A 3 mph bump in a prospect’s draft year can be the difference between a plus pitch and a truly elite weapon.
Like many elite modern fastballs, Doyle’s excels at the top of the zone. In the upper third, it’s generating a 48.6% whiff rate and a 35.2% chase rate, numbers made even more impressive considering they include some uncompetitive pitches outside the zone. His ability to overpower hitters at the top and just above the zone is a key skill that should translate well to the next level. With that kind of dominance, Doyle has a real chance to be effective with his fastball alone.
The Advancement of the Splitter
One of the more underrated pitch mixes in all of pitching is the fastball at the top of the zone paired with an effective splitter. Splitters are meant to look like a fastball, and then at the last minute fall off the table. Doyle’s improvement in the 2025 season, and optimism moving forward is the improvement in his splitter, which has been his 2nd most used pitch this season.
During the 2024 season, the splitter had a .500 batting average against, while only generating a 16.1% whiff rate and 23.1% chase rate. He only used the pitch 7% of the time, and when he did it got clobbered. This season those numbers have flipped. He has upped his usage to 12.1%, which passes both his slider and cutter in usage rate. The pitch is generating a 43.2% whiff rate with a 34.8% chase rate, and hitters are hitting a mere .239 against the pitch.
Doyle’s improvement of a plus 2nd offering has allowed the rest of his repertoire to play up. The ability to pair the 80 grade fastball with a plus splitter, an above average cutter (32.6% whiff rate), and above average slider (30.3% whiff) has him looking like a potential front end starter.
Improving Control
While Doyle will never be mistaken for a marksman, his control has improved this year. Coming into this season walks were a major problem. At Ole Miss, he walked 21 hitters in 55 IP, which comes out to be a 3.4 BB/9. That number has improved, but not at an overwhelming rate to a 2.8 BB/9. The ability to throw strikes is going to ultimately be Doyle’s largest obstacle to reaching his ceiling as a starter.
The combination of his fastball usage above the zone, with his 2nd most used pitch being a splitter, makes it hard to be a command artist. The splitter is the hardest pitch to control, and there is intent behind throwing the fastball out of the zone. The more confidence Doyle continues to gain in his stuff will allow him to learn how to attack hitters. The fastball alone is an interesting case study for that.
Doyle overall has a 49.6% in-zone rate, which is brought down primarily by the splitter at 44.6% in zone rate. The fastball currently sits as a 50% in-zone offering, but with what we know about Doyle’s plan of attack, there is some wiggle room in that number. While he might only throw his fastball in the zone 50% of the time, he could hit his spot 55-60% of the time. On the season he has thrown 238 pitches out of the zone high. On those pitches they have generated a whopping 33.2% chase rate, and a 58.2% whiff rate. 1 out of every 3 pitches Doyle throws as a ball generate a positive result. There is no way to quantify intent, but Doyle has better command than the in zone rates tell us due to the effectiveness of his fastball.
Conclusion
Doyle is such a fascinating prospect. There is some serious reliever risk, and had he been in the 2024 draft, Chase Burns and Hagen Smith would be head and shoulders above him. But Doyle is in the 2025 class, and there is a wide open void for premium talents. Where Doyle will be selected will be solely based on draft strategies from teams at the top. I envision many in the top 10 will take underslot opportunities, but if a team wants a potential top of the rotation starter, Doyle will be on the short list. He needs to continue to develop, but the foundation is there, and he only continues to improve each season. The fastball alone will be a valuable major league pitch. If the rest of the repertoire follows, he will make an organization very happy.
Photo by Wes Hicks/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
