Mapping Nat Gio

I don’t spend a whole lot of time talking about Gio Gonzalez as he’s always been a pitcher hovering around the 40s to 60s.  He’s like Michael Wacha as the most prolific...

I don’t spend a whole lot of time talking about Gio Gonzalez as he’s always been a pitcher hovering around the 40s to 60s.  He’s like Michael Wacha as the most prolific of Tobys. Well, he’s been getting more attention this year as he entered last night’s outing vs. the Mets with a 1.86 ERA…which ballooned over a point to 2.87 after going 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks.  Now, we kinda knew this was going to happen at some point – his xFIP and SIERA were both 3.97 before this outing – but it was like Gio wanted to get it all out of the way in a hurry as he allowed a trio of longballs, making his HR/FB go from 5.8% to 10.7% in one evening.  Still, at the end of it all Gio is hinting at a 8.00 K/9 with a low 2.19 BB/9 and an ERA that will probably sit in the low-to-mid 3s. That’s a solid addition to any 12 teamer staff and I wouldn’t worry about this blip against the Mets.

Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:

Clayton Kershaw – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace.  Too bad he lowered his K/BB to just 19.00.  What a bum.

Johnny Cueto – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks.  Cueto has three complete games this season. Cueto also faced the Padres in all three of those games.  I’m not saying he isn’t good – I raised him all the way to #15 today! – all I’m saying is I expect a bump in the road next time out against an actual offensive club in St. Louis.

Drew Pomeranz – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. I really want to like Pomeranz more but those walks are just so frightening. He now holds an ugly 4.25 BB/9 and I have to believe it’s going to start causing some major issues in the near future.

Rich Hill – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks.  Should I start considering Hill Top 25?  Maybe, but I do have some worries about his longevity this season.  I’ll ponder about it like Brain and meanwhile don’t you even think of trading him away.

Cody Anderson – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks.  Cody got the call back to the bigs as the Indians needed some help for a double header.  He may be back up for good as Clevinger didn’t impress at all.  Either way, you don’t want to rostering Anderson as this is a One Night Bland.

Nick Tropeano – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Our super reluctant Call Boy was easily the most productive of the trio against the Rangers.  I wouldn’t be rostering him, but just think of him as a you-could-do-worse streaming choice moving forward.

Brandon Finnegan – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks.  Finnegan really needs to figure out those walks and while the baseball gods were in his favor given 22 in-play outs and just 1 ER, they ultimately hated him given that the one true pitching god Kershaw was also on the hill.

John Lackey – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks.  Lackey can’t stop producing with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 9 Ks.  Sure the 3 ER aren’t welcome but I’m a happy owner with this line.

Taijuan Walker – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks.  Beautiful stuff there Walker.

Bartolo Colon – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s pretty boring from The Big Apple, but whatever you’ll take it.

Derek Holland – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks.  Our reluctant Call Boy was fine, nothing too exciting.  It’s helping get him back into my good graces, but I’m not considering a stream from Dutch until he faces the A’s in mid June.

Ryan Vogelsong – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Vogelsong was actually doing well and was rewarded with a Fastball right into his face.  Don’t think he’ll be back on the mound for a long time.

Mat Latos – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I haven’t thought about Latos in a while.  That’s not a good thing for Latos.

Adam Wainwright – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks.  Yeah, this does very very little to convince me that Waino has turned a corner.

Ian Kennedy – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. You can blame the rain for the shortened outing, but it’s not like he was cruising along otherwise.  Shrug your shoulders like a cool teenager and move along.

Erik Johnson – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. There may be a time Johnson becomes a decent Toby.  Now is not that time.

Mike Pelfrey – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks.  Go away pelfrey.

Vincent Velasquez – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks.  You may not realize this by looking at his 10.49 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and 2.75 ERA, but VV has only had three starts this year that I’d say I’d be thrilled with as an owner – he failed to strikeout more than six batters in all his six other games.  Pair that with his inevitable shut down before your fantasy playoffs and you have a prime sell high guy.

Wei-Yin Chen – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. I know we got you to face the NL Easy, not the AL Easy equivalent in the Rays, but dude, come on.

Mike Clevinger – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Ugh, well that’s super disappointing.  Clev got his bell rung by the White Sox and it’s safe to put him on the backburner now until he shows that he can dominate through an outing.  I still see him being a name that appears on podcasts everywhere as a must add pickup later in the year, it’s just going to take some time…if he sticks in the majors.  Carrasco is going to come back soon and Anderson just pitched a gem as they needed another arm for a double-header.  He’s a safe drop if you’re waiting to hear more.

Matt Moore – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s easy to get lost in the 3.87 xFIP, 8.65 K/9 and just 2.82 BB/9 numbers from Moore, but let’s be honest, you need more.  So I need to hold Moore?  No, you need more from Moore.  So more unlike Moore?  Yeah, let’s go with that.

Jordan Lyles – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Lyles has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter not named Gray and maybe even Gray.

Ricky Nolasco – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks.  I could tell you that Nolasco isn’t a relevant starting pitcher, but that would be a waste of time.  You just told us.  Awww dang it, you can’t get those seconds back.  My b.

Today’s Streamers

Nate Karns vs. Oakland Athletics – He’s owned in under 30% of ESPN leagues, which could change after Karns continues to strike out guys at a 9.39 K/9 clip.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Mike Foltynewicz vs. Milwaukee Brewers – There are actually a decent amount of streaming options here, though it’s from a lot of bleghy guys like Ross Stripling and Matt Andriese who both get weak opponents.  There’s also Tyler Duffey against the Royals that could be super fun.  I’m going with Folty against the brew crew since he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts and has the K upside to have some fun.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer 

Matt Wisler vs. Milwaukee Brewers – I feel weird endorsing Wisler after he’s been so mediocre and risky, but he’s had back-to-back 7 strikeout outings and gets the Brew Crew, which is better than whatever else you can find on the wire for Thursday.

Game of the Day

Stephen Strasburg vs. Matt Harvey I’m writing a piece on Harvey right now that dives into his biggest issues this year – third time through the order + Runners on + kinda worse Slider + lower Velocity + you really shouldn’t worry too much about him – and I came across Eno Sarris mentioning that Strasburg went through a near identical start to his 2015 season after high expectations.  Interesting.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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