Noelvi Marte has been scorching in the early going of the 2025 season with a 1.127 OPS in just over 50 PAs. The vibes around the former top prospect headed into this year were not so high after his PED suspension before the start of last season, along with his overall ineffectiveness after returning. In 242 PAs in 2024, he struck out north of 30% while walking just 3.7% of the time. He could not compensate for that extremely poor combination with power with just a 6.5 Barrel% and 35.5 HardHit%.
That sample can’t be totally washed away, but he was still really young for the majors at 22 years old with a strong prospect pedigree. But compounded with the suspension, it seemed he had fallen out of favor just a bit with the Reds as he was on the outside looking in for a roster spot this spring. Due to some injuries in the Reds’ infield, opportunity has presented itself, and Marte has run with it so far.
Strong First Impression
Debuting in the majors in 2023, we got a glimpse into the upside of Marte. Although he only had 123 PAs, we saw a bit of everything that made him a top prospect and enticing in fantasy, slashing .316/.366/.456 (119 wRC+). As a 21-year-old, he flashed the power and speed skillset you crave with three home runs and six stolen bases. Additionally, perhaps the most encouraging part, he was supplementing it with above-average contact.
These numbers have put him in a well-respected company among other 21-year-olds since 2015. The 115.6 mph MaxEV jumps off the page, as that is pretty special raw power at such a young age. For perspective, some other names with that MaxEV or higher include Elly De La Cruz, Carlos Correa, Nomar Mazara, Julio Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Ronald Acuña Jr. The K% and SwStr% aligned fairly well, suggesting he was making a believable amount of contact in addition to a solid Chase%. The cherry on top was the 91st percentile sprint speed he displayed. The important boxes you look for in a young hitter were checked. Quality swing decisions, quality contact skills, and the ability to hit the ball hard.
There was plenty of optimism heading into the 2024 season for fantasy purposes, despite the limited sample and other relevant blemishes that could arise over a full season. However, it was easy to talk yourself into a top prospect who flashed his upside playing every day in Cincinnati. We all know what happened next.
Where Things Went Wrong
Looking closer at Marte’s 2024 season, it would be on the complete opposite end of the spectrum in regard to hitters his age in the majors. His 46 wRC+ is easily the worst among 22-year-old hitters since 2015 (min. 240 PAs). As mentioned previously, his K rate went in the wrong direction along with his strong quality of contact. Perhaps too much weight was put into his tiny sample Chase% in 2023, as it was the lowest mark at any professional level, and he’s been a pretty aggressive hitter overall. However, it was interesting to see his contact ability fall off so hard since he had good strikeout rates all throughout the minor leagues.
He was among the biggest regressors in the league in all of these key categories as the league adjusted to him. He wasn’t terrible against secondary pitches in his brief time in 2023 (57th percentile in Whiff% vs. secondaries), but pitchers leveraged that more in 2024, and he dropped to the 18th percentile in that area. Specifically, pitchers dialed up their slider usage and just spammed it down and away. In fact, Marte led the league in whiff rate on sliders in these parts of the zone, struggling to lay off them. Many of these were in the waste region of the attack zones, which are mostly pitches in the dirt.
His struggles become even more evident when looking at his Decision Value Heatmap against breaking balls in 2024.
So we have a promising sample from Marte and a troubling sample, although in double the number of plate appearances. That leaves us to assess what he’s done in the mere 51 PAs so far in 2025.
Scorching Hot Start
Marte is making better swing decisions so far, which has led to a career-best walk and strikeout rate. After being one of the lowest in Pitcher List’s Decision Value last season at 73, he rates as above-average in this area with a 115 this season. This currently puts him in the neighborhood of productive hitters with sound approaches like Seiya Suzuki and Gleyber Torres. It’s an across-the-board improvement in his process metrics as he’s gotten his contact ability back to above-average as well, although his 11.8% K% is clearly not sustainable, as his SwStr% is actually higher at 12.6%. But as long as he can settle around league average in that department, that will be a positive and allow him to unlock his raw power more.
Speaking of his power, the quality of contact does not quite line up with what you would expect from his outrageous superficial numbers so far. It’s currently just a 30 HardHit% with a better 7.5 Barrel%, but still a tad underwhelming. There is no question about his raw power (74.2 mph bat speed) as he uncorked a 116.7 mph laser last week in Miami, but it’s just a matter of consistently turning it into game power.
116.7 MPH off the bat on this crush job by Noelvi Marte! 😳 pic.twitter.com/Tl0yRdep4K
— MLB (@MLB) April 22, 2025
Despite those marks, he is making the most of his batted balls by pulling them in the air at a career-best rate. After being slightly below a 13% Pulled Flyball rate in his first two seasons, he’s cranked that up to 22.5% this year, which ranks in the 72nd percentile. In his home ballpark, he doesn’t necessarily have to produce a lot of barrels to hit homers. Overall, his Process+ still looks promising at a 106. And compared to his 2024 season, it’s a night-and-day difference.
He’s put his aggressiveness to good use as he’s been ultra-aggressive in the zone, ranking top 10 in Z-Swing% at 80% (min. 50 PAs). In addition, he’s been aggressive on the base paths already swiping four bags. His 95th percentile speed could produce a healthy number of steals with the Reds ranking top 5 in stolen bases attempted per game.
There is certainly a lot to like with what Marte is doing so far in 2025. He should continue to be productive, although I would like to see his hard-hit numbers return to his 2023 form. Opportunity is everything in fantasy, and he appears to have captured steady playing time the rest of the way. Still only 23 years old and playing half his games at Great American Ballpark, Marte is an exciting profile to bet on.
