Welcome to Pitcher List’s management vs. employee resolution center. As MLB approaches a near-certain lockout by the 30 owners of the players, we at Pitcher List want to make sure you have the latest and best news about what is happening in labor negotiations.
I will provide the facts as presented and offer analysis that hopefully helps you navigate the issues that will be negotiated in the new collective-bargaining agreement. The new CBA will cover the 2027-31 seasons.
When Does The Lockout Begin?
The current CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. In 2022, MLB issued a statement just before that time announcing owners were locking out players. Negotiations officially began May 12 with a face-to-face bargaining session.
When Did The Last Lockout End?
After 99 days, the owners and players agreed to a new CBA on March 10, 2022. Opening Day was pushed back from March 31 to April 7, with affected games rescheduled throughout the season. Originally, MLB had canceled the first two weeks of the regular season.
What Happens During A Lockout?
Teams can’t have any contact with players on the 40-man roster, and team facilities are off-limits. This also includes injured players, meaning any care provided directly by the teams must cease. Players can still receive treatment from other providers. Also, all roster moves are frozen, although you can bet that front offices will be in communication with each other in order to facilitate trades once the lockout is over.
Are The Minor Leagues Affected?
The lockout only affects players on the 40-man roster. Players already in the system or signed to minor-league contracts can go about their offseasons normally. The minor-league season is expected to begin as normal, although a few more players might be signed this offseason to minor-league contracts to fill out Triple-A rosters, which tend to include a handful of players on the 40-man roster.
What Happens If The Lockout Lasts Into The Season?
That will be dependent on how much of the regular season is affected. If a week of games is scrapped, like it was in 2022, those games can be made up with doubleheaders. Anything more than that, a decision would have to be made whether those games are simply canceled or a new schedule is made, which would only happen if the lockout goes deeper into the season. There is an interesting date that could be a motivator for owners. If 60 games are missed — think late May — MLB’s national-TV contracts would automatically be extended for another year (through 2029). Owners will still get paid the $2 billion owed from the networks for 2027. However, that means a bargain for the networks for the 2029 season. And that begins with the 60-game mark reducing what the owners receive for what would be a full schedule in 2029. Unless all of 2027 is wiped out, in which case the networks wouldn’t have to pay a dime for 2029 (remember, the networks would have paid to carry nothing in 2027). The local-TV revenue would be dependent on actual games missed and doesn’t affect future seasons.
What Happens To The Winter Meetings?
The minor-league portion of the Winter Meetings is still scheduled to be held as usual. This year’s Winter Meetings are scheduled for Dec. 7-10 in San Diego. While the focus of the major-league portion is free-agent signings and trades, the minor-league portion is akin to a job fair and trade show. The status of the Rule 5 draft is currently up in the air, with a proposal on the table to hold it this year on Nov. 24. There is also a minor-league version of that draft.
Who Are The Key Figures?
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred represents the owners, and Bruce Meyer is the interim executive director of the MLB Players Association following the resignation of Tony Clark in mid-February after an internal investigation into an improper relationship with a staff member who was also his sister-in-law. Meyer was the lead negotiator in the previous CBA negotiations.
What Are The Key Issues?
Salary cap: Owners want one, the players do not.
There is no question that there is an imbalance as to what teams spend on player payroll. That is a choice by the ownership of each team. According to Spotrac, which tracks salaries and team spending across all of the major sports leagues, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won the last two World Series, have a competitive-balance tax payroll figure of $430.7 million to lead MLB. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins rank last among the 30 teams at $84.4 million.
The tax threshold is $244 million for the 2026 season, meaning any team above that number has to pay a penalty. The severity of that penalty is dependent on whether the team in question has gone above the CBT threshold. For instance, a first-year offender pays a 20% tax on the overage, while a third-year team pays 50%. There is a secondary level of penalties that start at $20 million over the threshold. That includes a 60% penalty on anything over $60 million above the threshold. Spotrac has nine teams above the $244 million threshold for 2026.
A salary cap is also a way of controlling costs for each franchise (i.e. salary suppression) and inflating the value of a team. Just this year, two franchises broke the MLB record for a sale price. The San Diego Padres were sold to Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones for $3.9 billion, which smashed the record of $2.42 billion Steve Cohen paid for the New York Mets in 2020. That sale has been completed. On Sept. 1, a deal to sell the Los Angeles Angels for $4 billion to Stan Kroenke was announced. That sale is pending, but is expected to be approved this offseason. Meanwhile, when comparing player payroll between MLB and the three other major sports leagues that do have a salary cap, the top 10% of players in MLB account for 60% of the payroll, while the NFL is at 51%, NBA 41% and NHL 31%.
Sharing revenue: This figures to be part of the salary-cap discussion, but also deserves its own space.
Players receive 47-48% of revenue earned by the owners. The capped leagues have a 50-50% split. Teams share 48% of local revenue, although larger-market teams can avoid some of that by having equity stakes in their regional sports network. MLB teams rely heavily on local revenue. As of a couple years ago, national-media deals account for 26% of revenue for MLB, whereas the NFL is 66%. Conversely, ticket sales account for the biggest chunk of revenue in MLB at 31%, while it is just 17% in the NFL. In the NBA, national media is at 41% and tickets at 26%.
What Has Been Proposed So Far?
There have been a few rounds of proposals by each side, so this is a quick recap:
Players
⚾ Allow players who are at least 30 years old to hit free agency after five years instead of six.
⚾ Move the draft from July to June and keep it at 20 rounds. Revenue-sharing recipients would also get an extra $1 million for their signing-bonus pool and $2 million for one draft of the team’s choosing. Reduce penalties for teams that spend more than their allotted pool and don’t involve losing draft picks so quickly.
⚾ Rosters expand from 26 to 28 for the first 15 days of each regular season.
⚾ Pitchers who are optioned to the minors after nine outs or 50 pitches after the game or the day after would receive their major-league salary and service time for the next four days. Players who are optioned often receive a lower, minor-league salary when optioned. This would also be in effect for pitchers optioned within seven days before the All-Star break.
⚾ Any player optioned in September or October would additionally receive major-league pay. Currently, those players still receive major-league service time, but not major-league pay.
⚾ Move the trade-deadline window up to July 21-27. That window is currently July 28-Aug. 3.
⚾ Creation of a religious accommodation list, allowing approved players to be away from the team for up to two days.
⚾ Playoff eligibility for every player in the system at Sept. 1 at noon. Currently, only players on the 40-man roster are eligible, although players in the system before Sept. 1 can be added as an injury replacement.
⚾ Allow teams to use the 60-day injured list during the offseason. Currently, it is only available once pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
⚾ Allow veteran free agents who sign a major-league contract within 10 days before Opening Day to be optioned to the minors for up to 10 days.
⚾ Players would have access to all nonproprietary performance data collected by the clubs. An example of this would be a high-speed camera that captures a pitcher’s motion be made available.
⚾ Create a lobbying effort with MLB to eliminate prop bets and event contracts relating to in-game performance. The union also wants to allow players to be able to have endorsement deals with legal sports-betting firms, including prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Owners
⚾ A salary cap. For 2027, the cap would be $245.3 million, with a floor of $171.2 million, with a 50-50 revenue split.
All contingent on a salary cap:
⚾ Limit contracts to five years, $202 million for free agents who sign with a new team, and six years, $265 million for players re-signing with their team. Also, allow players who are at least 30 years old to hit free agency after five years instead of six. Free agents with a new team can make no more than 15% of the cap, while players who re-sign can make up no more than 16% of the cap. Salaries are allowed to increase to a max of 5% of the first-year figure (not each year, total).
⚾ Contract extensions can be up to 12 years and up to $500 million. For every year of service time accrued, the number of years (and the dollar amount) decreases.
⚾ No deferred money in future contracts.
⚾ Eliminate the qualifying offer.
⚾ Raise the minimum salary to $1 million for players with at least two years of service time. The current minimum salary for all players zero to pre-arbitration (typically three years) is $780,000.
⚾ Increase the pre-arb bonus pool. Currently at $50 million, it would begin at $65 million in 2027 and grow to $75 million by the end of the CBA.
⚾ Free-agent signing window. Players would not be allowed to sign with a new team until the first day of the Winter Meetings. Trades could still be made. The signing period would close Dec. 21. No signings or trades could be made until the first Monday in January.
⚾ Reduce the season from 162 games to 154 games. Salaries, bonuses, and incentives would not be reduced with fewer games played.
⚾ The Division Series would be expanded from best-of-five to best-of-seven.
⚾ In the postseason, the top seeds in each of the first two rounds would get to choose their opponent. With the top two division winners receiving byes, the No. 3 seed (worst division winner) would get to choose either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed (worst two wild cards) for the Wild Card Series. In the Division Series, the No. 1 seed would get to select which of the two teams that won the Wild Card Series they want to play.
⚾ An international draft that would be 12 rounds. The total bonus pool available (all 30 teams) would be $200 million. This would include skipping one year’s international signing class. Raise the signing age of international players to 18 by Sept. 1 of the signing year (currently 17). Draft picks could be traded.
⚾ Cutting the amateur draft from 20 rounds to 12 rounds with hard slot values. The total bonus pool available (all 30 teams) would be $200 million. (In 2025, amateur bonuses were $402 million.) All amateur draft picks must be 20 years old by Sept. 1 of the draft year and be two years removed from high school graduation. Draft picks could be traded. The number of teams in the draft lottery would be reduced from six to four.
⚾ Set 26-man roster weekly. Injury replacements could still be made, but this is meant to eliminate some of the bullpen churn. Rosters could include 14 pitchers.
⚾ Injury lists, currently 10 and 15 days for position players and pitchers, respectively, would change under the new roster setup. Position players would be out for one Monday-to-Monday period and pitchers two periods. The 60-day injured list would be a 12-week designation.
⚾ Players selected in the Rule 5 draft would be able to be sent to the minors, not kept on the MLB roster for the entire season as is the requirement now. Players would become eligible for the Rule 5 draft earlier.
Has Anything Been Agreed To Yet?
There are a few items that already appear to have been agreed to. As always, things are subject to change until the final agreement is reached.
⚾ For players 30 years old and above, the amount of service time needed to reach free agency will be reduced from six to five years. Six years has been in place since the reserve clause was introduced in 1976. This would take effect following the 2027 season.
⚾ The qualifying offer will be eliminated. This was nearly eliminated in the previous negotiations, but remained after the two sides could not come to a deal on a proposed international draft. That negotiation lasted into the season, with a deadline of July to make a decision.
