With pitchers and catchers already in sunny training camps and real baseball so close to coming back into our lives, it seems important to take a final look back at the offseason that’s closing. While the real winners and losers of 2025 have yet to truly appear on the scoreboards, we can take stock of how some of the major storylines have developed before the season officially starts.
Even as we had an idea of the big changes to come, free agents that would be coveted, and teams that were facing important changes, it was still surprising to see how much the league is about to change. With generational players taking their talents to unsuspected teams, major organizations complaining about competitive balance, and a controversial Hall of Fame non-vote making headlines, it is time to declare the clear winners and losers of this winter break.
Winner: Juan Soto
Soto’s free agency was a highly anticipated event ever since he turned down a multi-year offer from the Nationals a few seasons ago. Being represented by Scott Boras only added to the notion that Soto was probably headed to the highest bidder when the time came, which is exactly what happened in the end.
Signing the largest contract in MLB history will make you a winner every day of the week, and the numbers remain a bit shocking to read a few months after the fact. Soto received a $75 million signing bonus in what is ultimately a 15-year, $765 million deal, as the 26-year-old will finally settle for a forever home. Soto had already earned a stellar reputation after winning a World Series with the Nationals and helped the Yankees reach their first Fall Classic in fifteen years, and now he has the task of helping their cross-town rivals do the same in a loaded division.
Even as front offices continue to be risk-averse and the middle class of free agents has stagnated, Soto’s contract serves as a reminder that superstars will always find a way to get paid. Despite the obvious pitfalls that will come in the back end of this deal, the upside for the Mets and Soto is enormous, as he already projects as a future Hall of Famer and owner Steven Cohen’s deep pockets are almost certain to surround him with enough talent every year.
Loser: the Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals had been such a model of consistency that it is still strange to see them in the weird baseball limbo they have kept for the past couple of seasons. After two straight years with no playoff berths, the front office has followed that up with zero free agent signings, a $25 million payroll decrease, and a very public attempt to trade Nolan Arenado, which has proven almost embarrassing at this point. The cost-cutting moves look even worse considering that the NL Central is not as weak as it used to be.
The Cubs have improved their roster in many key spots and should be much better in year two of Craig Counsell’s tenure, Milwaukee is coming off a division title and has a strong young core, while the Reds and Pirates at least have the intriguing talent to make them watchable. On the other hand, St. Louis is counting on a number of high-variance players to turn things around, starting with Arenado and his offensive erosion. With projection systems expecting a losing season for the Cards, a fanbase not used to rebuilds may be looking at a necessary low point before the team can turn things around.
Winner: the Dodgers
Los Angeles was already a big winner in 2024, and then they decided to leave nothing to chance towards 2025 with a huge offseason. After winning the World Series with a makeshift rotation, they went ahead and signed a two-time Cy Young winner (Blake Snell) and the most coveted international free agent (Roki Sasaki) to help their pitching, while also adding veterans Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott to the bullpen. These additions also helped weaken some of their division foes, which is almost cruel at this point, as the Dodgers should be prohibitive favorites in the NL West.
The Dodgers’ aura of invincibility from a marketing standpoint has raised questions about salary caps and competitive balance, but that does not take away from the fact that the team is playing within the rules of a seemingly broken system. Baseball’s randomness almost guarantees that LA will have its share of flaws and vicissitudes in 2025 and beyond, but they have stacked the odds in their favor in a clear attempt to build a dynasty in Chavez Ravine.
And oh, by the way, Shohei Ohtani is already taking bullpen sessions…
Loser: the Yankees
The Yankees took a massive L from the Dodgers during a World Series in which they blew two crucial games in shocking fashion, only to continue to fall further behind their erstwhile rivals during the offseason. Even as the Yankees added a slew of solid free agents (Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger), traded for all-world closer Devin Williams, and should have a healthy season from prospect Jasson Domínguez, there is no denying that none of that can make up for letting Juan Soto walk. Soto had the makings of a quintessential star in pinstripes, and he will now become just that on the other side of town.
Adding to that notion, owner Hal Steinbrenner went on record to say that it is difficult for owners to match what the Dodgers are spending on players. While that particular complaint may be valid for a number of small-market teams, it felt weak coming from literally the Yankees, who are choosing to be fiscally prudent despite a 15-year championship drought that is the longest since the team officially became the New York Yankees.
Last season’s pennant certainly created breathing room for GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone, but the AL East should be tough to navigate amid the rising pressure the Yankees will face. This could become a pivotal year for the franchise, which is seemingly prioritizing constant contention instead of going all-in.
Winners: Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso
Bregman and Alonso were in a class of their own when it came to free agency, as both were certain to earn big money but also a number of questions regarding their production. In the case of Alonso, his prodigious power was never in question, but shelling out big bucks for a right-handed first baseman who just turned 30 was a no-no for several teams. Bregman, on the other hand, had no such positional qualms, but his slow offensive decline was evident as he entered free agency also at 30 years old. In the end, it all worked out well for the sluggers.
Alonso’s high-profile negotiations and rumors ended with a satisfying return to the Mets, who will pay him $27 million per year for the next two seasons to remain the face of the franchise (hey, Soto still has to win over the fans in Queens). Meanwhile, Bregman became the most recent member of the Astros’ title core to leave the nest, signing a 3-year, $120 million contract to join the Red Sox. Even as neither got the long-term deal they sought, they earned enough security in their bank accounts while joining contenders, which should be enough to solidify their status as veterans with proven playoff track records.
Loser: Pat Hoberg and MLB’s relationship with gambling
It flew under the radar for most of last season, as umpire Pat Hoberg was initially suspended from MLB following an investigation that showed he shared an online betting account with a friend who placed bets for him. Even as Hoberg claimed such bets did not involve baseball, MLB denied his appeal and ultimately fired him in early February, again putting the spotlight on the always complicated marriage of professional sports and gambling.
In the case of baseball, the long history of scandals now contrasts with the league’s openness to its betting sponsors, which are now front and center in every broadcast and on MLB’s website. Obviously, players and umpires are held to a higher standard and know the consequences, but it still seems kind of contradictory for the league to embrace gambling in such an open way despite its troubled history. At the same time, losing such a talented umpire like Hoberg is a clear loss for the sport. While he will be eligible for reinstatement a year from now, there is no guarantee that Rob Manfred & Co. will give him a chance at redemption.
Loser: the anonymous non-Ichiro voter
Hall of Fame voting is always an important part of the offseason, with plenty of speculation and think pieces to fill out the internet. This year, the induction of Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner will make for a nice ceremony in Cooperstown, as the three legends are deserving in their own right. However, their enshrinement was almost overshadowed by a still-unknown person who unwittingly created a stir.
Ichiro was always seen as a shoo-in first-ballot Hall of Famer, both for his amazing stats and stature as a baseball savant/ambassador, but we all know that it is almost impossible to reach the HOF with a 100% approval rate. Only Mariano Rivera has achieved that, which is shocking in a way but understandable in the game’s historical context, as not even Babe Ruth was a unanimous pick. Alas, Ichiro came oh so close after receiving a 99.7% count, which means that one single voter left him off his ballot.
Despite many ballots being made public as part of the HOF process, the voter who did not mark Ichiro’s name has chosen to be anonymous instead of defending his point against a rowdy contingent of internet sleuths who continue to search for him. While Ichiro himself probably could not care less about this omission, it will always be weird and noteworthy to see that 99.7 instead of 100 next to his name.