Anyone who has watched Oneil Cruz take an at-bat, field a ground ball, or run the bases can tell he is immensely talented.
Lots of metrics would agree with you on that; his 99th percentile average EV (95.7 mph), his 100th percentile arm strength (99.2 mph), and even his 87th percentile sprint speed (28.8 f/s) tell us that Cruz has all of the tools to succeed at the major league level.
In his first full MLB season, Cruz has been solid, contributing a 118 OPS+, 20 homer/20 stolen base season, and impressive defensive value, as he has transitioned from shortstop to center field for the final month of the season.
Not many players would have the confidence of their managers to switch from a crucial position in shortstop to an arguably more important position in center field. Especially not a 6-foot-7 career infielder.
Still, Cruz’s unique skillset and immense raw talent have displayed his elite potential already. Now, we just need to see the results on the field.
Present Output
As mentioned earlier, Cruz has been a valuable player in 2024, yet not quite as elite as his talent suggests.
At the plate, Cruz has been worth 0.53 WPA with a 3.7 fWAR, as his 117 OPS+ is second-most on the Pirates (behind Joey Bart in 77 games) and his 22 stolen bases are nearly double that of the next closest (Michael A. Taylor has 12).
While his defense was shaky at shortstop (-9 DRS and -3 OAA), his elite arm strength helped supplement his errors on more routine plays. Cruz has graded out better at centerfield (-2 DRS and 2 OAA), and he is expected to stick in center in the future.
Overall, Cruz has been the most valuable hitter on a Pirates team that has struggled offensively all year. Cruz needs to continue his production for their success in the future, while hopefully staying on the field for full seasons.
Under the Hood
Beyond his current output, Cruz has shown impressive underlying metrics, as touched upon earlier.
While Cruz’s max EV tops the league (121.5 mph in 2024, 122.4 mph overall), his 55.3% Hard-Hit% and 95.6 mph average EV stick around the top as well, as he’s improved his consistency of hard contact since his debut campaign in 2022.
Cruz has also cut down on strikeouts, sitting at an even 30% K% as of September 26, down from 34.9% in 2022.
Cruz’s improved average launch angle, hard-hit numbers, and quantity of balls in play would all spell improvements offensively, yet he’s only taken a slight step forward. His 113 wRC+ is up nine points from 2022 and is still an improvement, but not at the level you’d hope for.
Future Output
While Cruz is a well-above-average player, he hasn’t taken the jump to superstardom that many people have hoped for.
Reasons stem from a few places, but the big one is strikeouts. A batter’s quality of contact is nice, but it doesn’t matter how hard you swung if the ball isn’t put into play. This doesn’t mean Cruz should stop swinging as hard as he does, of course; but to take the next step forward, Cruz will have to see more balls be put into play.
This is a common problem for players with Cruz’s profile. Look at Aaron Judge, another 6-foot-7 former top prospect with huge potential. Judge has gradually cut down his strikeouts every year, and a career-low 23.7% K% in 2024 has allowed him to hit a career-best .324 while maintaining and even improving his elite power numbers.
Some of this stems from Judge simply putting more balls in play. Since his batted-ball numbers are similar to Cruz’s, more balls in play would likely mean more ideal contact.
While Judge was still posting elite numbers with a ~30% K% in his first few seasons, he took the next step once his strikeout numbers improved.
There are still some key differences. Judge elevates the ball more (18.9 degree average LA to Cruz’s 9.9) with more bases on balls (18.8% BB% to 8.2%), meaning his ceiling as an all-time offensive talent is still far greater than Cruz, yet Cruz still shares some of his more important tools in bat speed and quality of contact.
Cruz is also better in some key areas such as baserunning and arm strength, as they really are different players. Still, Judge’s improvements as he’s gotten older show Cruz still has time. If Cruz can continue making marginal improvements, he could very well reach superstar status.
Ideally, Cruz will continue showing elite raw power while keeping his strikeouts in check. If this happens, and Cruz develops further into a complete talent, his flaws will become less prominent as his exciting profile launches him into elite territory.