There’s nothing like a sports nickname that gets taken too far. Vinnie Pasquantino, or the “Pasquatch” as some may know him, burst into the big leagues with a strong 2022, so much so that the Royals had a man in a Sasquatch costume make appearances whenever he gets on base.
These ballpark gimmicks are perfect for players who might be up-and-coming stars: fans want the creature to make an appearance, and it coincides with a player getting on base more and more over the coming seasons.
In this case, however, the Pasquatch sightings are mimicking real life. They happened more in the past, and they’re less believable than ever.
Now, this is not to say that Pasquantino has disappeared in his three big league seasons since the 136 wRC+ rookie season, but it has not been as hoped. He went down with significant shoulder surgery in 2023, and we are still seeing the effects of that in his approach today.
Pasquantino has retooled his approach this year, a continued shift from what we saw last year. While this brings some good and some bad, he’s finally starting to combine it for the better. Regular Pasquatch appearances may be increasing, which would be a significant lift to a team starved of offense.
How We Got Here
When Pasquantino debuted in 2022, he wasn’t necessarily your typical slug-first 1B. Although he looks like a typical first baseman at 6’3″, his scouting reports raved about his hit tool as the carrying aspect to his profile. Pasquantino himself talks about emphasizing line drives and being a “hitter” more than anything.
In his rookie season, he posted a .295 average and .383 on-base percentage paired with an 11.7% walk rate and 11.4% strikeout rate. Mix in a 20 home run pace, and it looked like the Royals had an exciting young bat to pair with Bobby Witt Jr.
He also might have one of the weirdest first career hits/home runs.
Year two came with some classic sophomore season regression: the batting average dropped significantly as he started chasing more. Then came the torn labrum, which knocked him out for the year at just 260 plate appearances. Torn labrums are one of the worst injuries for an up-and-coming hitter, with significant effects on power output and career longevity.
2024 was finally supposed to be Pasquantino’s big year. He was healthy coming into the season, and it looked like we could we could see a continuation of 2022. Instead, it looked closer to 2023 again. He piled up 97 RBIs and 19 HR with a .262/.315/.446 slash line. Not all terrible, but a 108 wRC+ put him 16th among qualified first basemen last year.
This year, Pasquantino has started slow: he’s posted a 96 wRC+ with 8 home runs through 60 games. With most stats having stabilized by this point in the season, he’s changed from his low strikeout/high walk approach.
This year, he’s seen a spike in strikeout rate, which is new, but his walk rate is steadily decreasing year-over-year. Pasquantino’s swing rate has slowly increased each year, too, but it’s within a three-percentage-point range and only around the league average.
Instead, his approach has changed significantly in three-ball counts. In his rookie season, Pasquantino swung just 41.3% of the time in three-ball counts, which was in the first percentile. The three years since have all been above 50%, with this year sitting at 50.9%, which is in the 19th percentile among qualified hitters. While he isn’t super aggressive now, the increase in swings in three-ball counts will inevitably lead to more balls in play and fewer walks.
The rise in strikeout rate directly comes from a change in the profile: there has been a significant drop in out-of-zone contact. Pasquantino’s strikeout rate is still well below league average, but this stands out for a hitter who relies on his bat-to-ball. His O-Contact% has dropped from 78.1% to 67.8%, the 17th largest drop among qualified hitters. Overall, it’s still in a good position, but closer to league-average than elite.
This fuels a big part of his low average struggles early in the year, as fewer balls in play turn into hits. His .162 average on swings out of the zone is in line with his career norm; those batted balls just aren’t happening as much.
The other big part of his struggles was the lack of fastball dominance in April. He hit .292 against fastballs in his first three big league seasons, and hit just .189 in the first month of the season. He seemingly rushed back from a hamstring injury on the last game of Spring Training to make the Opening Day roster and was coming off a broken thumb in September of last year, so there was potential that velocity was going to become an issue.
With his typical contact-first approach, two other aspects of his game have surprising consequences: his bat speed is up, and he’s pulling more in the air. Usually, you hear that and consider them the perfect combination for power. His bat speed was up nearly 2.0 MPH higher in April than in 2024, so he potentially was trying to outswing his contact approach, leading to poor decisions. Pasquantino’s AirPull% is up 4% year-over-year, but that isn’t leading to better results. His success in May and June has come when he’s doing less of both, emphasizing his natural “hitter” archetype.
That’s My PasQUANTino
Pasquantino turned it around in May, taking his 50 wRC+ from April to a 137 in May. His fastball performance has improved dramatically, and his out-of-zone contact has increased.
His HardHit% increased from 35.4% to 55.6% on fastballs, the second-best month of his career. In another good sign for health, Pasquantino also set a new max exit velocity of 114.4 mph, almost 2 mph higher than his previous mark.
Pasquantino’s bat speed also decreased in May, which might seem counterintuitive for a new max EV. The average bat speed decrease didn’t mean he was incapable of reaching those higher highs; Pasquantino is just moving away from the changes he made in April.
It’s up again in an early June sample, so something to continue to monitor.
On the plate discipline side, the improvements in O-contact% almost have a 1-1 correlation with overall results. He’s making more contact, and it’s paying off in the form of batting average.
Overall, Pasquantino’s improvements have brought him to a place where we could see a higher batting average again with a similar power output. The walk rate does not appear to be returning to rookie levels, but he’s mashing fastballs again and reaping rewards. He’s at his best when he’s a pure hitter, and that’s what we’re seeing right now.
Pasquatch sightings are returning with frequency, now potentially as the second-most exciting first baseman on the team. He’s capable of being a .280 hitter with 25 homers on the season, which would be an exceptional season for the twenty-seven-year-old.
