Welcome back to Week Eighteen of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. These three bats are still enjoying their All-Star Break! Don’t they know it’s been a couple of weeks?
Brandon Marsh, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
What began as a huge breakout season has started to fizzle out for Brandon Marsh. He earned the first All-Star appearance of his career, and deservedly so, thanks to a .301 average and 15 HR in the first half, one shy of the most HR he’s hit in a single season of his career. However, in July, Marsh has just a .141 average and only two HR, marking the end of a wonderful stretch and signaling the return of his usual solid, but not exceptional, production in recent years.
Marsh has struggled with pitch selection all season, with a 27% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate landing him in the bottom quarter of qualified hitters in both metrics. The poor contact rates do expose Marsh to slumps like what he’s mired in now. Despite that, the power and bat-to-ball skills have resulted in a .360 BABIP, 95th percentile, which in line with his career average, suggesting Marsh is not lucking into his solid .287 average on the season.
Managers that had previously left Marsh in their lineups all year long should re-evaluate for the final two months. This isn’t a player that should be dropped in 12-team leagues or deeper, but should be considered a platoon bat, as only three HR have come against LHP on the season, resulting in just a .658 OPS. The Phillies have already done just that, sitting Marsh in their last two games against LH starting pitching. What has been a nice bright spot for managers should be seen as more matchup-dependent, but the results are still there if you look.
Verdict: Patience
Christian Walker, 1B, Houston Astros
Just like Marsh, we have another player who got off to a great start, which has come to an abrupt stop. This is also due to high strikeout rates (34% in July) and low walk rates (6% in July). The deja vu can be put to rest there, as Christian Walker’s struggles have more to do with his ability to make contact rather than his decision-making, which is a far bigger concern for fantasy managers.
Even if a player makes all the right decisions, the bat and ball have to meet. Just two HR in the last month is not good enough for managers who can only rely on those power numbers for Walker to contribute to their teams. Strangely, in his two seasons in Houston, Walker has struggled mightily at home, hitting just .206 with 16 HR at home compared to a .261 average and 32 HR on the road.
A couple of factors are working in his favor. As a good defensive first baseman, Walker will play every day in an Astros lineup that may look to buy at the deadline in a weak AL West. He also has predictable tendencies managers can trust when building their lineups. In standard leagues, Walker is a solid streaming option on the road when in a pinch or in desperate need of power, but does not need to be rostered otherwise.
Verdict: Panic
Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins
Time to mix it up a bit. Many different Marlins could’ve been picked on as they’ve endured a 12-game losing streak in July, but Xavier Edwards has been chosen due to his particularly dramatic drop in form. Entering June with a nearly .900 OPS, Edwards has just a .632 OPS since. The main culprit? He’s not doing damage against the heat.
This decline mirrors the season-long decline. He’ll have to adjust to heat back up to that early-season form. A contributing factor could also be his spot in the lineup. Edwards had success early on hitting first or second in the order, but settled in as an unconventional cleanup hitter at the start of June, right when these numbers started to drop. An excellent 11% walk rate has stayed consistent throughout, suggesting opponents would much rather face whoever is on deck, a spot in the lineup that’s combined for just a 77 OPS+ for Miami this season. As a result, Edwards has been driven home much less often since the switch, and doesn’t possess enough power to consistently drive in the runners ahead of him that may be on base.
The stolen bases have remained steady as well, thanks to that walk rate and efficient baserunning, getting thrown out on only 3 of his 19 attempts this season. Managers can rely on Edwards to continue contributing in that key category, while also hoping he can rebound along with the rest of the Miami team as they emerge from an extended losing streak. He has consistently outperformed his expected metrics throughout his career, so now is not the right time to move on. Fingers crossed he jumps back up to the top of the order sooner rather than later.
Verdict: Patience
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
