Welcome back to Week 9 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. It is still early, of course, but numbers are beginning to become more meaningful. Let’s see if we can discern what might be an unlucky start and what is more worrisome.
Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners
Everyone is aware of Raleigh’s fantastic 2025 campaign, where he had 705 PA, a .247/.359/.589 slash, 26.7% K%, 13.8% BB%, 161 wRC+, and, of course, 60 HR. Before this monstrous season, he was solid. From 2022-2024, he had a .222/.303/.457 slash, 28.3% K%, 10.0% BB%, and 117 wRC+.
In 181 PA this year, he has a .161/.242/.317 slash, 31.5% K%, 9.9% BB%, and 64 wRC+. Have pitchers found a hole?
His O-Swing% (13th percentile) is 5 points higher than his career, and his Z-Contact% (17th percentile) is 2.9% lower. A switch-hitter, Raleigh has especially struggled vs LHP. He has just a 17 wRC+ vs them. His overall Hard Hit% is down to just 28.3%.
Verdict: Cautiously Patient. Raleigh’s Plate Discipline metrics are down across the board, and because of that, he is struggling to hit the ball hard. However, while a decline from 2025 was expected, such a precipitous drop was not. He is just 29. I think this is a classic case of a switch-hitter with twice as much to work on (not to mention the responsibilities of a catcher), taking longer than most to get dialed in. Also, while I don’t like blaming cold weather (it can’t affect both pitchers and hitters negatively across the board), Seattle is especially challenging in the Spring. Lastly, he went through periods of poor Plate Discipline last year, and I’d say that turned out all right. I expect he has quite a hot streak coming. If you can acquire him cheaply, now may be the time.
Marcus Semien, 2B/SS, New York Mets
Semien has always been an up-and-down hitter, but his floor has consistently been at least a near-average hitter. Combine that with an excellent defender, and you have a solid fantasy and better real-life player. However, this year he has not been nearly as valuable.
In 206 PA he has a .218/.268/.303 slash, 20.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, and 65 wRC+. His Decision Value+ remains strong. It’s been around 120 each of the last three seasons. His Contact Ability+ has continued to drop the last 3 years from 114 to 105 to 99. A player with 9th percentile Bat Speed and other poor batter ball metrics cannot afford to become an average contact hitter that also has just a 6.3% BB%.
Verdict: Panic. I think this is the beginning of the end for Semien (if that wasn’t last year). A 35-year-old with poor Bat Speed and declining contact ability is not particularly useful in fantasy. I’ve become less enchanted with Outs Above Average, but it shows he has become a below-average defender. If this holds true and he continues to struggle at the plate, he may begin to lose playing time to a younger Met.
Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Since his 2016 rookie campaign, Turner has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. He’s never had a wRC+ below 104, and he has a career 120 wRC+. However, he is nearly 33 years old and may finally be showing signs of decline. In 226 PA this year, he has a .230/.283/.344 slash, 21.2% K%, 7.1% BB%, and 76 wRC+.
His Decision Value and Process+ numbers have remained consistent over the last few years, so that doesn’t seem to be the issue. In 2024 and 2025, his Contact Ability+ was around 114. This year, that number is down to 104. I would call this a yellow flag.
What I find most concerning is his lack of pulled balls, specifically in the air. His Pull% is down to 34.0% (15th percentile), and his Pull AIR is 13.6%, the lowest since 2020. This would explain his career-low .115 ISO.
Verdict: Patience. Other than his slight decline in Contact Ability+, Turner is only struggling to pull balls to maximize damage. Everything else looks very similar. His 99th percentile Sprint Speed suggests he is still extremely athletic, and his Bat Speed remains strong. There is some evidence that his widened stance and increased distance from the plate decrease pull rates. If this is true, I imagine that would be a fairly easy fix. A real decline may not be far off, but I don’t think it’s this year.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
