Welcome back to Week Twenty-Three of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. Should we trust these guys in our fantasy playoffs?
Dillon Dingler, C, Detroit Tigers
On August 6th, Dillon Dingler was looking like an MVP candidate. He had an .877 OPS and had homered in his third straight game against the Mariners in Seattle, bringing his season total to 26. He’s only recorded two extra-base hits in three weeks of baseball since. Those three-plus weeks have been a completely different player. He’s 8-for-80 at the plate in that stretch, and the underlying numbers aren’t pretty either. His rolling Process+ chart has been in steady decline.
Taking a deeper dive into the numbers, this 8-for-80 looks, well, sort of the same? Obviously the results aren’t there, but the strikeout rate hasn’t ballooned, Dingler isn’t chasing any more than he had earlier in the year, and he’s still pulling the ball in the air. The biggest difference has been a shocking loss of power. His average exit velocity is down to 84 mph, almost five ticks from earlier in the year. Dingler hasn’t recorded a single barrel in this time. He had been over 10% for the season until that point.
It’s incredibly difficult to speculate what the cause of this may be. There’s no way to accurately diagnose an injury from a computer screen, but it feels like a strong possibility at this point. A flip switched in early August, and managers are sitting on the wrong side of it with no time left to see if he can respond. Abandoning ship on such a valuable player throughout the summer is not usually a path to playoff success, but in this case, streaming a hot hand, like Mickey Gasper or Sean Murphy, who are available in most leagues, would be more advisable than sitting and praying in redraft leagues.
Verdict: Panic
Joshua Báez, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Joshua Báez had everyone’s attention with a debut for the ages in Wrigley Field. Hitting three homers in your first-ever game means it’s a slam dunk, right? Spend all the FAAB. Get at all costs. If only baseball were so simple. A quick 6-for-50 followed, and now we’re left asking what is real and what isn’t only 59 PA into a Major League career.
The power numbers are, unsurprisingly, eye-popping. Average exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit rates are near the top of the league in his small sample so far. The biggest problem is how little Baez can make contact. He’s swinging at 55% of pitches seen, a very high rate, and pitchers aren’t incentivized to throw them in the zone, as Baez chases nearly 42% of the time. His 37% strikeout rate is a killer in points leagues and contributes to a brutal .167 average.
As seen in his first taste of MLB action, Baez has a ton of potential. His 77 mph bat speed would rank in the Top 10 of all qualified hitters, putting him in the company of the elite power bats in the sport. However, at this point, Baez feels more like a 2027 play than a 2026 hero. The overall offensive approach needs some work to find enough consistency to tap into that power more often. If Esmerlyn Valdez is still on the wire in your league, he offers a similar level of power, while also offering a high walk rate to help with counting stats when the ball doesn’t leave the yard.
Verdict: Panic
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
In his first year with the Diamondbacks, Nolan Arenado’s approach at the plate has sacrificed consistent contact for more power. And it’s worked! His 20% strikeout rate is a career high, but the power numbers have turned back the clock. He’s hit 21 HR and counting, with barrel and pull-air rates similar to his first years in St. Louis. He’s hit just .218 since the start of June, but his 14 HR in that span puts him on a 30-HR pace over a full 162. It’s created a very HR-reliant profile for fantasy managers, so how many more can we expect in the final month?
Let’s look at the schedule. Arenado’s extreme pull is a great fit this weekend in Houston. After that, the Diamondbacks play three games in a big ballpark in Kansas City, come home for nine games, and then head to Coors Field for a series in Denver. The potential is there to see more balls leave the yard. Managers in deep leagues should let it ride. Those in standard leagues who might have just lost JJ Wetherholt, or are looking for reinforcements, should consider streaming Arenado beginning this weekend against the Astros.
Verdict: Patience
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
