Welcome back to Week 11 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. We’re in the thick of it now and can have more confidence in the underlying numbers.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
As a prospect, Tovar had a reputation as a great defender with good bat-to-ball skills, but a lack of power and plate discipline hindered his offensive ceiling. His warts were on full display in his first full season in 2023, which resulted in a 72 wRC+. He showed significant improvement the following year, where his surprising 26 HR contributed to a respectable 94 wRC+. He was just 22 years old, too. His strong glove allowed him to pile up 695 PA, 83 R, and 78 RBI. There was much to be optimistic about.
2025 was a major step back. In just 390 PA, he had 9 HR, a .253/.294/.400 slash, 25.1% K%, and 5.4% BB%. However, he sustained a hip injury at the start of the year and then an oblique strain in June. It’s fair to say he may never have been completely healthy, even in those 390 PA.
So far this year, he has not rebounded. In 235 PA, he has 4 HR, 4 SB, a .208/.260/.319 slash, .111 ISO, 26.8% K%, 6.0 BB%, and 48 wRC+. Even Ozzie Smith-like defense wouldn’t be enough to keep getting you regular ABs with numbers like that.
Verdict: Panic. This one’s easy. Tovar swings at everything. All pitchers understand this, so they don’t throw him strikes. He has a 6th percentile Zone%, 98th% Str%, 100th percentile Swing%, 1st percentile O-Swing%, and 3rd percentile SwStr%. Tovar’s Batted Ball metrics aren’t terrible, but they are poor. He doesn’t hit the ball nearly hard enough to (somewhat) get by with such terrible Plate Discipline.
There is a small bit of hope, however. Recently, he has been showing some signs of improvement. I wouldn’t believe it until he keeps improving for quite a while, but at least it’s something.
Marcelo Mayer, 2B/3B, Boston Red Sox
Mayer was a highly touted prospect who made his MLB debut in 2025. In 136 PA he had a .228/.272/.402 slash, 30.1% K%, 5.9% BB%, and 80 wRC+. Not a great start, but not particularly concerning either for a 22-year-old rookie in limited action.
2026 is entering concerning territory. In 182 PA he has a .221/.282/.294 line, 18.1% K%, 6.6% BB%, and 59 wRC+. FanGraphs gave him a 30/40 Hit tool, so it is nice to see him cut his K% so much from last year. However, is this approach hampering a perceived strength? He was also assigned a 45/55 Game Power and 55/60 Raw Power, yet has just a .074 ISO this year.
Verdict: Patience. Long-term, it would of course be silly to rule such a highly-ranked prospect a bust after just 318 PA. In the short-term too it seems like Mayer has been the victim of a lot of bad luck. His Bat Speed is up a bit to a very strong 74.8 mph and his Fast Swing Rate has also increased to 51.7%. To me, this is not a guy taking more controlled hacks just to put the ball in play. His HR/FB% is just 3.8% and his Line Drive rate, a notoriously unstable stat, is 9.8%. His Decision Value+ has also increased from about 92 to 109. His K% is likely to increase somewhat as his SwStr% is 12.9%. However, I’ll take that trade if his other stats positively regress as expected. Buy low.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, San Diego Padres
Bogaerts is of course no longer the player he once was. He is just 33 years old, but he has a lot of mileage, accumulating over 7,300 career PA and 1,872(!) Hits. Across 2024-2025 he had a 100 wRC+. That’s still useful from an INF who collects a lot of ABs.
Through the end of April, it looked like he had taken a step forward to his former self. He ended the month with 122 PA, 5 HR, a .275/.352/.431 slash, 13.9% K%, 10.7% BB%, and 127 wRC+. Alas, it has been downhill from there.
He has just a 50 wRC+ in 125 PA since May 1 and a 23.2% K%. That doesn’t seem all that bad, but it would be his highest K% since his rookie season in 2014.
Verdict: Patience. I think that Bogaerts has just temporarily lost a feel of the strike zone. It’s been a while since he consistently posted strong Batted Ball metrics, but he’s always had a good feel for the strike zone. That has temporarily left him. That skill generally improves as a player ages, so I can’t imagine his good judgment is gone. His other metrics remain fairly consistent. I think he’ll settle back into who he’s been the last two years. Nothing special, but solid.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
