Welcome back to our Patience or Panic series, where we profile struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their poor performance. It’s now playoff season in our head-to-head leagues, which means that one add/drop or sit/start decision can be the difference between winning and losing a matchup. I’m speaking from experience here, as I won a matchup last week where my ERA was just 0.14 runs better than my opponent, which allowed me to get the win on a higher seed tiebreaker. Much like baseball, fantasy baseball can be a game of slim margins. With that in mind, let’s take a look at three guys who have had a string of bad performances lately and see if there are any actionable insights. All stats are through the games of Monday, September 8.
Joe Ryan, SP, MIN
Last four starts (since 8/19): 1-3, 18 IP, 23 Ks, 8.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
2025: 13-8, 157 IP, 176 Ks, 3.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Since his breakout campaign in 2022, Ryan has been one of my favorite pitchers to draft. Some of that is because one of my leagues has K/BB as a category, and Ryan’s career mark is 4.90, but it’s also because Ryan is as steady as they come as an SP2 or SP3. For his career, he boasts a 27.6% strikeout rate, tolerable 3.77 ERA, and elite 1.06 WHIP.
Ryan’s arsenal is built around a plus-plus fastball. He throws the pitch over half the time and attacks the zone with it relentlessly (62.7% Zone%, 96th percentile). Its unusual shape often leaves hitters unable to square it up. Ryan is able to generate a decent amount of backspin on the offering despite a super low release height of 4.7 feet, which places him in the 1st percentile. When you add in his solid extension (6.8 feet, 72nd percentile), the result is a pitch with a 99th percentile height adjusted vertical approach angle (1.8), 32% CSW% (92nd percentile), .291 xwOBA (87th percentile), and 5.42 PLV (97th percentile). Success with the fastball is nothing new for Ryan. It was consistently graded as his only above-average pitch as a prospect and has been remarkably consistent every year of his big-league career.
I could wax poetic about Ryan’s heater all day, but it would be foolish to ignore the struggles he’s had with finding reliable secondaries. In my mind, that’s the only thing keeping him from becoming an ace. Ryan’s sweeper is decent (12.9% usage, 32.9% CSW%, .259 xwOBA, 5.08 PLV), but the splitter, sinker, and slider all grade out poorly, with PLVs below 5.00 and inconsistent results. As a result, Ryan can run into some struggles against lefties. They have a .308 wOBA against him this year compared to .253 for righties, and Ryan’s 17.2% K/BB%, 1.14 WHIP, and 4.02 FIP against southpaws is pedestrian. As a flyball pitcher, this causes Ryan to go through some stretches where he’s susceptible to the long ball and posts a bloated ERA as a result. That’s what we’ve seen over this stretch, with a 2.00 HR/9.
Verdict: Patience… mostly. Given that WHIP has been and likely always will be Ryan’s best category, I never expected him to post an ERA below 3.00. As a result, this regression hasn’t shocked me. The only reason that I have a bit of concern is that Ryan’s three remaining starts come against two lefty-heavy offenses (Diamondbacks and Guardians) and the Phillies, who are banged up but still have a solid lineup. Both Arizona and Cleveland have at least seven starters that will bat from the left side against Ryan, which is far from ideal given his limited arsenal. But, those lineups haven’t been good enough to strike fear into me, so we should put faith in Ryan’s track record and keep running him out there.
Andrew Abbott, SP, CIN
Last six starts (since 8/11): 0-5, 35 IP, 31 Ks, 4.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
2025: 8-6, 143.2 IP, 130 Ks, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Compared to most players that I feature in this series, Abbott’s last six starts haven’t even been that bad. But, I was interested in including him for a couple of reasons. For one, the last three starts have been especially bad; Abbott has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.2 IP with a WHIP close to 2.00. Additionally, Abbott has been a guy where we’ve been waiting for the regression to hit all year. Just when we were starting to think it might never come, he’s hit the skids. Though the season-long numbers remain fantastic, Abbott’s ERA has risen almost a run since it bottomed out at 1.79 going into his first start of July. Given his career 22.2% strikeout rate and 1.25 WHIP, Abbott’s fantasy value is almost purely determined by his ERA, so every run matters.
Verdict: Patience. Because Abbott will be coming off a career year and likely have an inflated price, I don’t expect to have many shares of him next year, but I like his chances of finishing the season strong. There hasn’t been any falloff in the stuff or execution (5.21 average PLV in his last six starts), and aside from four walks against the Cardinals on August 30, his K:BB over this stretch is a sparkling 24:1. I think this poor stretch is just the regression that we have been expecting. It’s also worth pointing out his difficult matchups during this stretch: a road start in Arizona and four home starts (Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, and Mets), three of which were against strong offenses in a bandbox of a ballpark. With road starts against the Padres and Cardinals on tap, don’t overthink it and plug Abbott into your lineups.
Teoscar Hernández, OF, LAD
Last 30 days: 93 PA, .188/.237/.329 (54 wRC+), 8 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB
2025: 478 PA, .239/.277/.436 (94 wRC+), 54 R, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
This bad month is merely the continuation of a months long slump for Hernández, who started the season on fire and has been in a nosedive ever since. He slashed .310/.325/.621 (157 wRC+) with nine long balls and four steals in March and April and seemed poised for a monster offensive year in a stacked Dodgers lineup. However, he hasn’t stolen a base since May and hasn’t posted an above-average batting lines in terms of wRC+ since then, either.
Hernández isn’t a hitter known for having a great process or approach, but this rolling chart still tells a meaningful story. Noticeably, the power has completely dried up, which is a real concern given that it has always been his carrying tool. Even with a long history of questionable swing decisions and poor contact ability, since 2022, Hernández has never dipped below a 100 Process+ for more than a couple of days until now. From where I sit, that’s a real concern.
Verdict: Panic. Hernández’s role in the middle third of the Dodgers’ order is about as secure as it gets, but nothing in the profile has me confident that quality production is going to return down the stretch. Depending on the price, he could be an enticing buy-low candidate next year, though I will note that a swing happy approach combined with limited defensive value isn’t a profile that typically ages well. With some challenging series remaining, I would be comfortable with dropping Teoscar to stream a hot hitter like Daulton Varsho or even Daylen Lile.
