Week #2 of the fantasy baseball season is here! I am excited to join PL’s Patience or Panic series as a bi-weekly contributor (shared with Patrick Fitzgerald) to help you fantasy managers take the right course of action with struggling players.
A reminder: it’s just week 2 of the MLB season! There is plenty of time to turn things around for anybody—just look at Boston’s Rafael Devers. He got off to the worst start in baseball history, and has followed that up by going ballistic, hitting nearly .500 and taking walks at the highest rate of his career. With that being said, sometimes getting ahead of an issue and jumping the gun on a certain player’s struggles could be the difference between winning your fantasy league or not. Trust your gut, always.
Feel free to let us know in the comments or by tagging us on social media what players you would like to see us focus on in the future! Let’s dive right in.
Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers
After slashing .284/.345/.587/.932 with a 160 wRC+ in 87 games, it was reasonable to assume that 27-year-old Kerry Carpenter would take another step forward in 2025. After all, he posted really impressive metrics like a 46.4% HH rate, 91 MPH average EV, .379 xwOBA, and a 17.7% barrel rate in 2024. He mashed fastballs and pulled the ball in the air with authority… what’s not to like? That being said, he’s gotten off to quite a slow start in 2025, going just 7-32 (.219 AVG) with zero walks and seven Ks. So, what do you do with him?
Verdict: Patience. I am quite confident Carpenter will bounce back in a big way this year. While his box score results have been struggling, his batted ball data has looked just fine. He still sits in the top percentiles for HH rate (50%), average EV (92.7 mph), xwOBA (.415), and barrel rate (23.1%). Not to mention, he’s improved his strikeout (25.3% to 21.2%) and whiff rates (30.3% to 22.1%) this year. His xBA (.284) is sixty-five points higher than his actual batting average as well. Give him some time, the results will follow.
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Christian Yelich was one of the best hitters in baseball last season, slashing .315/.406/.504/.909 with a 153 wRC+ and 12.7% BB / 18.4% K rates prior to undergoing season-ending back surgery in August. He made a full recovery and dazzled this spring, going 12-34 (.353 AVG) with half of those hits being for extra bases. That being said, Yelich has gotten off to a pretty poor start, with just four hits in his first 32 ABs (.125 AVG) and just one extra-base knock. What’s next?
Verdict: Patience (mostly). Unlike Carpenter above, there is definitely some room for concern, especially coming off a serious back injury, regardless of what he did in the spring. When I think of Yelich’s ability, it’s to hit the ball hard while limiting whiffs or Ks. This year, Yelich’s whiff (41.4%) and strikeout rates (28.2%) have really shot up. But it’s early. He’s still walking at an elite rate (15.2%) and making solid contact (93.2 mph average EV, 52.4% HH). The chase rate also hasn’t drastically changed, which is a positive note. I’d keep your eyes on him, but for now, patience is the way to go.
Michael Wacha, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Michael Wacha is still chugging along at age 33. Last season, he was great, posting a 3.3 fWAR and 3.35 ERA in 166.2 innings, helping lead his Kansas City team to the playoffs and earning himself a 3-year, $51 million extension through 2027 (with an additional $14 million team option for 2028). The four-seam fastball velo actually was a tick up, and he introduced a new weapon, a slider. This year, things are different. His velo is back down to 92 mph, and he’s been hit around in his first two starts, allowing 10 hits, five walks, and five earned runs in his first 9.1 innings. His notoriously well below-average whiff and K rates have regressed even more, and his BB% has doubled. What’s the move?
Verdict: Panic. To put it frankly, he’s old and due to regress at some point. His FIPs and xERAs have been considerably higher than his actual ERA since his final days in St. Louis, and frankly, I was never “in” on Wacha from the start. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff, hasn’t shown the ability to generate whiffs or Ks, produces a below-average ground ball rate, and gets barreled around a bit. Can he stick around and still eat innings? Yeah, sure. But I wouldn’t bank on him to replicate his 2024 season by any means. Unless you’re in a really player-starved league (such as AL-only), I’d look elsewhere to fill your SP spot.
